Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction — Tide Ready for Payback in CFP Clash
The 2025 College Football Playoff kicks off with one of the most anticipated rematches we’ve seen in a while, and it’s between two powerhouse programs as #9 Alabama heads to Norman to take on #8 Oklahoma in the opening game of the CFP. These teams met just over a month ago, when the Sooners escaped Tuscaloosa with a narrow 23-21 win. This time, the stakes are even higher because a spot in the Rose Bowl semifinal is on the line.
Game Details and Betting Odds
This one kicks off tomorrow night at 7:00 PM ET, with ABC carrying the broadcast. Oklahoma enters the game at 10-2, while Alabama sits at 10-3 after falling in the SEC title game to Georgia, which ultimately gave UGA the 1st round bye.
The current betting line shows Oklahoma favored by 1.5 points, with the total hovering around 41.5 points. Bookmakers had the opening odds with Alabama at -1.5 but public betting has tilted that the other way. That low total reflects expectations of a defensive battle — both teams rank inside the top 20 nationally in points allowed per game.
The moneyline is virtually a pick’em, with Alabama current sitting at -105 and Oklahoma at -115. This is the tightest spread of any CFP first-round game — and for good reason. These numbers might move just a bit before kickoff, but we think the dust has finally settled.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +1.5 −112 |
O 40.5 −118 |
−105 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | −1.5 −108 |
U 40.5 −102 |
−115 |
Recent Form and Key Matchups
Oklahoma won the earlier matchup thanks to 3 Alabama turnovers and solid 4th-quarter defense. But that game was decided by just 2 points, and the Sooners barely topped 200 total yards. They did it by capitalizing on short fields, not sustained drives.
Alabama’s biggest issue that night is going to be mistakes. Ty Simpson threw a pick and was under constant pressure. But despite being sacked 4 times and facing relentless heat, he still passed for 326 yards. If Alabama tightens up protection and cuts down on turnovers, they have a real edge here. That first meeting was all Alabama’s to lose, and they did it to themselves.
And while Oklahoma’s defense is undeniably elite — top 10 in points, yards allowed, and rushing defense — it’s worth noting that Alabama moved the ball much better against them than almost anyone this season as they averaged 5.4 YPP, 2nd only to Tennessee.
On the flip side, Oklahoma’s offense has cooled off. John Mateer hasn’t looked the same since returning from his injury. Of course, he put up 318 yards against LSU — but let’s not overlook the fact that he also threw 3 picks. In his 5games prior to that, he totaled just 4 TDs. He has 10 interceptions on the season, and Alabama’s defense has 10 picks of its own. He’s proven he can be much better than that, but he hasn’t looked like himself lately.
Stats That Matter
Alabama’s offense puts up 31.2 PPG, led by Ty Simpson’s 3,268 passing yards and 26 TDs. Germie Bernard is his go-to target with 762 yards and 7 scores, and Jam Miller, if healthy, could boost a running game that’s otherwise been somewhat shaky by Alabama standards.
But even without Miller, though it looks like he’ll be able to suit up, the Tide are battle-tested. Their 3 losses came to top-tier teams, which included FSU, Oklahoma, and Georgia, and they went on a midseason 8-game win streak that showed they can dominate when in rhythm.
Defensively, Alabama allows 17.4 PPG, just behind Oklahoma’s 13.9. But the Tide are stronger against the pass, giving up only 157.7 passing yards per game, which is good for 20th nationally. That bodes well against an Oklahoma passing attack that has become too reliant on Isaiah Sategna III, who’s a big-play threat but has shown that he can easily be neutralized with proper game planning.
Why Alabama Covers the Spread
Let’s start with motivation because that’s the biggest driver here. Alabama is 0-2 against Oklahoma under Kalen DeBoer, and that’s a narrative the Tide would love to kill and the 1st round of the CFP is the place to do that. There’s added pressure on DeBoer, too, with whispers tying him to the Michigan job. Winning this game would silence a lot of that noise and restore faith in his vision post-Saban.
Then there’s also the matter of regression. Oklahoma forced 3 turnovers in the 1st meeting — a number that’s unlikely to repeat. Alabama has shown they can hang with the Sooners physically, as they dominated in most aspects of that last game. Clean up the giveaways, and this is Alabama’s game all day long.
Plus, Oklahoma hasn’t shown it can move the ball consistently against strong defenses. They averaged just 212 total yards in the 1st matchup and they’ve leaned on big plays from Sategna, but Alabama has the athletes to contain him, especially with Terrion Arnold leading a disciplined secondary.
The Tide have also shown they can handle adversity against any team in the nation. Their 27-20 road win at Auburn, 56-0 drubbing of Eastern Illinois, and solid SEC resume prove they’re built for tough environments. Simpson’s 64.3% completion rate and 5 INTs over 428 attempts show he’s a fairly reliable QB — when not under siege.
The offensive line needs to hold up much better than it did last time, especially with R Mason Thomas back in the fold for Oklahoma. But even then, Simpson has already thrown for 300+ yards against this very same defense — he knows what to expect and he knows how to handle them.
Prediction — Alabama Moves Onto the 2nd Round of the CFP
We expect Alabama to come out focused and sharp, with better pass protection and more patience on offense. That’s all it’s going to take. They have the talent and they’ve shown that. Simpson won’t need to be spectacular — just efficient. Bernard will get open underneath, and if Miller can go, it adds balance to the attack.
Oklahoma has been trending the wrong way offensively, and the defense can’t be expected to carry them every time, especially an explosive offense like Alabama’s. If Mateer gets pressured early, his mistakes could put the Sooners in a hole they can’t climb out of, and they’ll have the same fate at the Tide in the first game.
The Crimson Tide win the turnover battle this time and grind out a gritty, revenge-fueled win to punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 17
Best Bet: Alabama +1.5
The wrong team is favored here since the line moved, but we’ll take it. Alabama is more complete, more experienced, and due for some turnover luck. Take the points — or the moneyline — your choice.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
