Alabama vs Missouri Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for This SEC Showdown
Two top-15 SEC programs will be going at it in Columbia tomorrow, as the #8 Alabama Crimson Tide hits the road to take on the undefeated #14 Missouri Tigers in a huge Week 7 matchup. Both teams are smoking hot, and both are confident, but only one can keep its momentum rolling into the game.
With Missouri undefeated and Alabama fresh off a pair of back-to-back Top 25 wins, we think this is shaping up to be one of the biggest conference games of the season.
Game Details and Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| #8 Alabama | -3 −112 |
O 51.5 −108 |
−162 |
| #14 Missouri | +3 −108 |
U 51.5 −112 |
+136 |
Kickoff is scheduled for 11 a.m. CT on Saturday, October 12, and the game will be televised nationally on ABC, so there’s no reason you should miss it.
The bookmakers have Alabama listed as a slight 3-point road favorite, with the total set at 51.5 points. On the moneyline, the Crimson Tide are priced at -162, while Missouri comes in at +136 to pull off the upset at home.
Missouri comes into this game 5-0 overall with a 1-0 record in the SEC and fresh off a bye, while Alabama sits at 4-1 and 2-0 in the SEC, riding a huge wave of momentum after a gritty win over Georgia followed by a 30-14 home win against Vanderbilt. While the Tigers are undefeated, their strength of schedule hasn’t been nearly as impressive, with only 2 Power Four opponents (South Carolina and Kansas) on the slate so far. Alabama, on the other hand, is battle-tested and battle-proven.
Numbers Breakdown — Strength on Strength
This game is shaping up to be a classic contrast of some very different styles. Alabama wins with balance and experience while Missouri relies on clock control and punishing ground play. So far, it’s worked for both of them.
As for Alabama, QB Ty Simpson has been simply excellent, throwing for 1,478 yards, 13 TDs, and just one INT. He’s completing over 70% of his passes and is the main reason Alabama is ranked 8th nationally in passing YPG at 325.4. The Tide averages 452.2 total YPG, which ranks 37th overall in the country, but what’s surprising is their rushing attack — or really lack thereof. At just 126.8 yards per game on the ground, they rank a lowly 195th nationally. That’s a significant drop from the typical Alabama identity we’re all used to. But when your QB1 is doing as well as he is, why change up the script?
On the other side, Missouri is pounding the rock better than almost anyone. They’re averaging 292.0 rushing YPG, which ranks 3rd in the nation. That charge is led by Ahmad Hardy, who’s already piled up 730 yards and 9 TDs this season. He’s gone 100+ yards in 7 straight games, including last year. Hardy will be the biggest challenge yet for Alabama’s run defense, which is not as dominant and has allowed 155.4 yards per game, ranking 155th nationally.
But here’s the thing that really stands out — Alabama has faced far better teams so far. They’ve beaten Georgia and Vandy, both top-25 programs, and on top of that, they handled Vanderbilt with ease. Missouri’s most impressive win came against Kansas, and they gave up 31 points in that one. To say the least, Missouri hasn’t really been challenged, so it’s tough to see them get past a team like Alabama, which has been thoroughly challenged. Team Rankings has the Alabama strength of schedule at a 17.3 rating, while Missouri is just at 1.4.
Defense Will Decide It
Despite the schedule, Missouri’s defense is no joke. They rank 2nd in total yards allowed with 203.8, 4th in rushing yards allowed with 62.4, and 20th in points allowed per game with 14.6. Their discipline and consistency have made them one of the most balanced units in the SEC.
Still, Alabama’s defense is right there with them when considering the powerhouse offenses they’ve faced. The Tide is giving up just 16.0 PPG, has forced 4 interceptions, and is especially good against the pass, allowing only 130.4 yards through the air per game. That puts them in the top 10 nationally.
What really gives Alabama the edge here is experience. Head coach Kalen DeBoer is 13-2 in ranked matchups, the best winning percentage in AP Poll history. He’s already 2-0 this season against ranked SEC teams and has a roster that’s played in some really big games, on the road, and under pressure. Missouri hasn’t faced anything close to the challenge Alabama presents.
And while Hardy is undoubtedly a beast, Alabama can afford to key in on him. Missouri QB Beau Pribula has been efficient but not nearly as explosive, with 1,203 yards, 9 TDs, and 3 interceptions. The Tigers don’t stretch the field much, which could allow Alabama to stack the box and focus on limiting Hardy’s effectiveness. If they can limit what Hardy can do, the secondary should have no problem keeping Pribula in check.
Crimson Tide vs Tigers Prediction —Why We’re Taking Alabama
This feels like the game where Missouri’s lack of elite competition catches up to them and they record their first loss of the year. Alabama has already shown they can win ugly, win on the road, and win against the best teams in CFB. Ty Simpson’s calm command of the offense, paired with Alabama’s evolving defense, should be enough to outlast Missouri in a close one.
Missouri will keep it tight early, and we’re sure Hardy will get his touches, but once Alabama settles in and forces the Tigers to beat them through the air, it’s advantage Crimson Tide. Don’t forget — this Alabama team blanked Missouri 34-0 just last season. It won’t be that lopsided this time, but it’s still a matchup that favors the visitors.
- Prediction: Alabama 27, Missouri 20
- Best Bet: Alabama -3
Alabama is more tested, more talented at QB, and has the better coaching edge in a close game. Lay the field goal and trust DeBoer to get it done in one of the best SEC matches of the season so far.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
