2026 Masters Final Round Predictions: Can McIlroy Make History or Will Young Steal the Green Jacket?

Augusta National saved its best for last. Heading into the final round of the 2026 Masters Tournament, the leaderboard is as loaded and dramatic as you could ask for — two players tied atop the standings at 11-under, a world No. 1 lurking four back after one of the great single-round comebacks of the week, and a hole-in-one that had the galleries roaring on Saturday afternoon. Sunday at Augusta is appointment television, and this year it has every ingredient to go down as one for the ages.

Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young are deadlocked at -11 heading into Round 4, with Sam Burns just one back at -10 and Shane Lowry breathing down their necks at -9. Scottie Scheffler, the world No. 1 who looked cooked after a Saturday pairing with a 74 in Round 2, somehow fired a stunning 65 in Round 3 to drag himself back to -7 and within four shots of the lead. Simply put, there is no margin for error on Sunday.

The Odds Tell an Interesting Story

Despite sharing the 54-hole lead, DraftKings has Rory McIlroy as the slight favorite at +146 heading into the final round. That number reflects both his experience at Augusta and the weight of what he’s chasing. A win today would make McIlroy just the fourth player in Masters history to successfully defend the title, joining Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods. He completed the career Grand Slam last year, so the narrative around him is about legacy now — can he cement himself as one of the all-time greats with back-to-back Green Jackets?

Cameron Young, who co-leads, is a significantly longer price at +255 — a reflection of the fact that this would be his first Masters title. Scottie Scheffler comes in at +910, a number that might look steep given he’s four back, but nobody who watched him dismantle Augusta on Saturday with a 65 would count him out. Shane Lowry is +1300, Sam Burns is +610, and Justin Rose rounds out the notable contenders at +1500.

One prop worth noting: the “first-time Masters winner” market is favored at -136, meaning oddsmakers actually lean toward a first-timer taking the title over McIlroy or Scheffler (both previous champions). With Young, Burns, and Lowry all in contention, that price makes sense. Data Golf’s win equity model has Young at 32.2% and McIlroy at 31.6% — essentially a coin flip between those two, with the edge barely going to Young.

The Contenders: Drama at Every Level of the Leaderboard

Every player in the hunt heading into Sunday carries a compelling storyline, and that depth is what makes this final round feel genuinely special.

McIlroy is the story at the top. The defending champion has been in command for much of the week, carding a 67 and then a 65 in his first two rounds before a 73 on Saturday reminded everyone just how unforgiving Augusta can be. He’s been here before, knows the course as well as anyone in the field, and is playing with the kind of quiet confidence that comes from already having won a Green Jacket. The back-to-back history angle is impossible to ignore — Nicklaus did it, Faldo did it, Tiger did it. Rory wants to join that list.

Young is the co-leader and might actually be the more dangerous player on form right now. His 65 in Round 3 was a masterpiece — a 7-under round at Augusta in a Major on Saturday is no accident. He won The Players Championship earlier this season and has been playing the best golf of his career heading into this week. Young is hungry for a first Major and has the game to take it. At +255, there’s real value here if you believe in his momentum.

Scheffler’s position is almost as fascinating as the leaders’. He came into the week as the betting favorite and looked like a potential non-factor after a 74 in Round 2 left him four shots off the pace at the halfway point. Then he went out Saturday and shot 65 — the same score as Young — to put himself right back in the conversation. Four shots is a lot to make up in one round at Augusta, but it’s not impossible. Scheffler is the best player in the world for a reason, and anyone writing him off at this point has a short memory.

And then there’s Shane Lowry, who became the story of Saturday when he made a hole-in-one on the par-3 sixth hole. The ace had the crowd going wild and injected a jolt of energy into his round that helped him card a 68 and get to -9. He’s only two shots back. Lowry has always had the ball-striking talent to compete at Augusta — now he just needs to keep the putter warm on Sunday and trust the round he’s been building all week.

Prediction and Best Bet

This one comes down to McIlroy and Young, and the edge — barely — goes to Young. McIlroy’s 73 on Saturday introduced a flicker of doubt, and while he’s the defending champion with all the experience that comes with it, history suggests that trying to make history can sometimes work against a player. Young, by contrast, is playing with house money in the best way possible: he’s got the lead, he’s got the form, and he’s got nothing to lose. When a player in the best stretch of his career co-leads a Major going into Sunday, that’s a situation you want to be on.

Burns is the sneaky pick. He’s been steady all week at -10, just one back, and consistency tends to get rewarded on the back nine at Augusta. But if you’re betting on the outright, Young at +255 is the number that jumps out as the best value on the board.

• Prediction: Cameron Young wins the 2026 Masters
• Best Bet: Cameron Young to win (+255, DraftKings)

Sunday at Augusta never disappoints, and with this much talent bunched at the top of the leaderboard, 2026 is shaping up to be a final round worth talking about for years. Whether it’s Young grabbing his first Major, McIlroy making history with back-to-back titles, or Scheffler staging a stunning Sunday charge from four back — there’s a scenario here for every type of golf fan. Tee it up.