Rams vs Falcons Prediction — Can Atlanta Handle LA’s Firepower?

The Los Angeles Rams are headed to Atlanta tonight for an MNF clash with the Falcons, and surprisingly enough, this one has big implications for playoff positioning, at least for LA. The Rams are coming off a tough OT loss in Seattle, but they’ve won 3 of their last 5 and look like one of the most complete teams in the NFC. On the other hand, the Falcons are 6-9 and still technically alive in the NFC South, but they’re running out of time and chances, and they don’t control their own fate.

With Atlanta starting a backup QB and dealing with more injuries in the secondary, this matchup sets up as another opportunity for Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and the NFL’s top scoring offense to get rolling again just in time for the playoffs.

Game Details and Odds

Kickoff is set for 7:15 PM EST tonight, with ESPN broadcasting the game.

The Rams, who are 11-4, opened as 8.5-point favorites, but the line has dropped to -7, and the total sits at 49.5. The moneyline has LA at -375, with Atlanta listed at +295.

That spread movement could be due to potential rest for Rams starters heading into this one, but nothing has been confirmed. LA has already clinched a playoff spot but is still chasing seeding. Atlanta, sitting at 6-9, has slim playoff hopes and will need help even if they somehow pull off this upset.

The Rams are one of the league’s best ATS at 11-4, while the Falcons are a respectable 8-7 ATS. This might be a closer game than the bookmakers suggest, but let’s take a look at how these teams are doing.

Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense

This game could be decided by whether Atlanta can do anything to slow down Matthew Stafford, who has quietly had one of the best seasons of his career. He leads the league with 40 TD passes, and he’s thrown just 5 picks on 519 attempts. If he throws 2 more scores, he sets a new career high. He should have plenty of chances to hit this record.

The Rams offense ranks 1st in points with 30.5 PPG, 2nd in passing yards with 278.6 per game, and 5th in rushing yards with 126.3 per game. The offensive line has done its job well, and Kyren Williams has churned out 1,100+ yards and 10 TDs on the ground.

And then there’s Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL with an insane 1,592 receiving yards on 114 catches and is coming off a 225-yard game in Seattle. He’s been matchup-proof, and now he gets a banged-up Falcons secondary missing CB Mike Hughes and likely leaning on practice squad players like C.J. Henderson. If you’re looking for a prop bet tonight, it doesn’t get any better than this matchup.

Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been bad overall — they’re 14th in yards allowed, 323.3 per game, and they’re only 10th against the pass — but they haven’t faced a passing offense like LA’s in quite a while. They’re also giving up 24 PPG, which won’t cut it against a high-octane offense like the Rams.

One bright spot for the Falcons is their pass rush. They have 50 sacks, 2nd most in the league, with James Pearce Jr. leading the team at 8.5 sacks. But Stafford’s quick release and the Rams’ play-action-heavy system make it tough to get home.

Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense

This is where the gap widens a bit more. Atlanta is down to backup QB Kirk Cousins, with Michael Penix Jr. on IR. Even with Bijan Robinson’s efforts, that’s a big problem.

Bijan Robinson has been nothing short of incredible, averaging 131.5 scrimmage YPG, but the offense around him hasn’t consistently delivered. He’s hit 100+ yards from scrimmage in 10 games, but with the passing game limited, the Rams can focus on stopping him.

Kyle Pitts has stepped up in a big way with 80 catches, 5 TDs, and 4 straight games with at least 6 grabs. He’s been Cousins’ favorite target, racking up 395 yards over the last 4 weeks, but he’s likely to draw extra attention from Rams LB Nate Landman, who’s been a force with 123 tackles and 4 forced fumbles.

The Falcons are scoring just 20.5 PPG, which ranks 25th, and they’re facing a Rams defense that gives up 19.9 PPG, good for 7th best in the league. That’s not a disparity they want.

The Rams aren’t elite against the run as they’ve given up 105.7 yards allowed per game, but are solid enough to limit Robinson if they stack the box and focus their efforts on him. And with the Falcons’ passing game being bottom-tier — they’re racking up just 226.5 yards per game, which is good for 19th in the NFL — it’s hard to see where the explosion comes from.

Prediction — Rams Cruise Past Shorthanded Falcons

The Rams have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 30+ in each of the last 3. Even their one loss — last week in Seattle — came in OT in a shootout. This offense is undoubtedly rolling, and it’s hard to imagine Atlanta keeping up.

The Falcons have some serious playmakers, and Bijan Robinson could cause problems if he gets going early and the Rams don’t scheme up an answer. But the lack of QB firepower and injuries in the secondary set them up for trouble. Puka Nacua vs backup corners is a mismatch waiting to happen.

Atlanta’s best-case scenario involves forcing turnovers and dominating time of possession. But the Rams lead the league with a +12 turnover differential, while the Falcons are just +1. If the Rams can just protect the ball — and they’ve done that better than almost anyone — Atlanta doesn’t have the firepower to stay in it for a full game.

• Prediction: Rams 34, Falcons 20
• Best Bet: Rams -7

LA has covered 11 of 15 games and has scored 30+ in 3 straight. They’re firing on all cylinders right now despite the loss last week. The Falcons don’t have the firepower or the healthy bodies in the secondary to hang around for 4 quarters. The Rams are playing for playoff seeding, and Sean McVay has a history of keeping the pedal down late in the season.

The line movement from -8.5 to -7 gives just enough value to jump on the number confidently, and that’s even with possible limited snaps for a few starters, as Stafford and Nacua alone are enough to beat a beat-up Falcons defense.