3 Player Prop Picks for Monday Night Baseball

Just because it’s a Monday doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made. Instead of spreading too thin, we’re locking in on 3 high-confidence MLB player props backed by recent form, matchup data, and even some trends that aren’t just noise. We’ve got one under on a former strikeout king, a contact machine that is sitting in a favorable spot, and a plus-money hit prop on a red-hot bat. 

Spencer Strider Under 7.5 Strikeouts

• Player Prop Odds: -145

This number used to feel low for Spencer Strider, but not anymore. His current form just doesn’t justify a strikeout line this high. In his last 2 starts, Strider has thrown only 8.2 total innings, allowing 19 hits, 13 earned runs, and 8 walks. He’s been shelled by the Mets and Brewers, and neither of those teams is exactly elite offensively. On top of that, he only put up 8 strikeouts between those 2 games.

Taking a deeper look, over his last 8 starts, Strider has hit 8+ Ks just twice. The biggest issue? He’s not staying in the game long enough because he’s getting battered. Whether it’s command problems or hard contact, Strider isn’t the same overpowering force we saw in previous years. Of course, he’s been up against some tough lineups, but he has flattened out in confidence.

Now he faces the White Sox, who are actually a bottom-tier offense in nearly every category. Yes, they’re definitely a team that strikes out — ranked 26th in the league with 7.6 K/game — but the matchup doesn’t matter if Strider only throws 4-5 innings. Atlanta has no reason to let him keep getting lit up just to chase strikeouts. He hasn’t seen a 6th inning since July 18th.

We all know that Strider still has swing-and-miss stuff, but until he proves he can get deeper into games and fix his location, the under 7.5 Ks is the right play — even if it’s juiced quite a bit.

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Singles

• Player Prop Odds: -120

This might be the cleanest play on the board for tonight’s slate. We’re not asking Bobby Witt Jr. to go yard or rack up some XBHs — just get one single and call it. And that’s something he’s done consistently all year. Witt is batting a decent .290 AVG on the season, and in his last 14 games, he’s recorded at least a single in 12 of them. He’s reached base in 16 of his last 20, and his OBP sits at a strong .348. This is simply what he does.

What makes this prop even stronger is the matchup. Witt will face Jack Leiter, who’s had an up-and-down rookie season. He’s been hittable, as shown by his 1.34 WHIP and 96 hits allowed in 105 innings. Leiter has especially struggled early in counts, and Witt is the type of aggressive batter who doesn’t let bad fastballs slide. He’s aggressive at the plate, and you can bet he’ll get a bag.

Also worth noting is Witt’s elite speed. This gives him more paths to cash this prop. He doesn’t need to barrel one up to get on. A chopper in the infield or a bloop over second could get it done as well. He’s also batting near the top of the Royals’ order, which usually gives him an extra appearance during the game.

There’s no need to overthink this one as Witt’s bat-to-ball skills and matchup against a hittable pitcher make this a smart, value-friendly prop.

Gunnar Henderson 3+ Bases

• Player Prop Odds: +195

Let’s swing for a bit of an upside with this MLB prop bet. This is the plus-money gem of the night. Gunnar Henderson has been smoking-hot lately and comes into Monday with tons of momentum. He’s hitting .279 on the year and has logged hits this number in 4 of his last 7. He’s not just slugging — he’s putting together mature, disciplined at-bats and spraying the ball to all fields.

Henderson faces Dustin May, who’s sporting a 4.67 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and has allowed 109 hits in 113.2 innings. Right-handed hitters have tagged May consistently this season, and Henderson has reverse splits working in his favor. He’s posted an OPS .850+ against RHPs and is hitting .290+ in those spots over the last month. He’s dialed in, and we’re feeling good about this one.

What’s even more encouraging here is how Henderson is seeing fastballs well and punishing mistakes early in counts. Against a pitcher like May, who tends to fall behind and relies too much on his movement instead of command, Henderson should see good pitches to hit.

Getting this prop at +195 is a fairly decent value for a player with the upside to rack up hits in bunches. If you’re looking to cash on a value prop that isn’t priced like chalk, this is the one you’ll want to jump on.

Lock In Your MLB Prop Bets

Tonight’s trio brings a balanced approach to the board; even if some of them seem contrarian, they’re anything but. Strider’s struggles give us a solid angle to fade inflated strikeout numbers, while Witt Jr.’s contact skills and speed provide consistency in a hittable matchup, and Henderson’s form and the price make the 3-bag prop bet worth the plus-money shot.

All 3 props line up with both stat trends and matchup edges, giving us a nice mix of safety and ceiling. Whether you’re playing these solo or parlaying a couple together, there’s a strong case behind each.