Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for Game 1 of Today’s Doubleheader

The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs square off this afternoon at Wrigley Field in Game 1 of a doubleheader — a game that makes up for a postponed game back in June. Milwaukee comes in freshly off a scorching 14-1 run, only just losing their first game in over 2 weeks last night in extra innings to the Reds. Chicago, on the other hand, has also found a groove, winning 3 of their last 5 games, though it’s not nearly as hot as the Brewers right now.

Game Details, Starting Pitchers, and Recent Form

The Brewers are 78-45 and lead the NL Central by 8 games over the second-place Cubs, who sit at just 70-53, which is still 1st in the wild card race. Milwaukee just swept the Mets, Pirates, and Nationals before dropping last night’s extra-inning heartbreaker in Cincinnati. This team is hitting its peak at the right time, and despite the loss, we don’t see any reason for them to slow down.

On the mound for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who’s been nothing short of reliable all season. He’s holding a 14-5 record with a 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 148 strikeouts over 136.2 innings. On top of that, he’s allowed only 50 walks and 16 home runs, which are solid numbers that reflect how dominant he’s been in limiting damage on the board.

Chicago counters him with rookie Cade Horton, who holds a decent 7-3 record with a 3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 85 innings. Those are not bad numbers for being his first year in the big leagues. Horton has been steady, but this will be a real test against one of the league’s hottest teams and deepest lineups. He’s given up just 7 home runs, which is nonetheless impressive, but he hasn’t faced many high-octane offenses like Milwaukee’s during his first major league season.

Betting Odds and Lines

The Cubs are -127 favorites on the moneyline, with the Brewers as the underdogs at +105. On the run line, Chicago -1.5 is priced at +160, while Milwaukee +1.5 is heavily juiced at -198. The total is set at 8, with the over at -111 and the under at -109.

These odds just go to show the respect for both clubs, but they also show the home-field boost the Cubs are getting despite Milwaukee being clearly superior over the last several weeks.

Matchup Analysis — Brewers’ Momentum vs Cubs’ Power

Milwaukee has the better batting average with a .259 compared to .251, more runs scored with 638 compared to 614, and a stronger on-base percentage and slugging combined than Chicago. The Cubs do have the edge when it comes to power as they have 170 HRs compared to the Brewers’ 132 — but much of that comes from slugging bursts rather than consistency.

Christian Yelich has undoubtedly been the engine for Milwaukee, leading the team with 25 homers, 86 RBIs, and hitting a .267 AVG. Sal Frelick adds a little bit of balance at the top of the order with a .294 AVG and a .356 OBP. This Brewers lineup has been steady and productive, scoring over 5 runs per game during their recent win streak.

The Cubs’ offense leans heavily on Seiya Suzuki, who leads the team with 27 home runs and 86 RBIs, and Nico Hoerner, who’s hitting .293 with a .342 OBP. They can certainly put up runs in a hurry, but they’ve struggled against upper-tier pitching, which Milwaukee has in spades — especially with Peralta on the bump.

Defensively and on the mound, Milwaukee has the slight edge. Their team ERA is 3.59 compared to Chicago’s 3.82, and they also rank higher in OBA with .230 vs .243 and strikeouts per game with 8.7 vs 7.6. These are important when facing a Cubs lineup that can be boom or bust.

Another factor in Milwaukee’s favor is that they’ve been dominant against weaker bullpens and less consistent starters, especially during this red-hot run. Even with the unfortunate loss last night, they’ve been grinding out wins in extras and pulling off blowouts. They beat the Pirates 14-0 just days ago. This is a team firing on all cylinders, and even with a fresh loss, they’re still playing great baseball.

Wrigley Field’s park factors lean slightly toward hitters, but the projected total of 8 tells us that the bookmakers trust both pitchers to keep the game in check. While Horton has been undeniably solid for a rookie, this is a huge leap in competition, and the Brewers don’t often go quiet 2 days in a row.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

We’re jumping on the Brewers with this Game 1 matchup. They have the better pitcher, better record, more consistency at the plate, and a team that’s clearly playing with confidence at the right time. Freddy Peralta has been nearly untouchable recently and should be able to neutralize the Cubs’ top bats. Milwaukee’s offense won’t need to do too much at the plate to give him a cushion, and that makes the under slightly tempting as well, though the better value is just backing the underdog straight up.

• Prediction: Brewers 4, Cubs 3
• Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline at +105

The plus-money price on Milwaukee with an ace on the hill is too good to pass up, especially with the run they just finished up. Chicago’s recent wins have been narrow, and Horton hasn’t seen a lineup like this yet. The value is on the road team, and Peralta’s strikeout prop should be in play as well, given how often the Cubs swing and miss.

If you’re looking for a decent player prop bet, you might want to take a look at Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts at -120. He’s cleared that number in 9 of his last 11 starts, and you can bet he’s going to get some swing and miss from this lineup today.

There’s still time to get your bets in on this matinee game.