2026 MLB Contenders — Who’s Got the Best Shot at the World Series?

The 2026 MLB season is already shaping up to be one of the most top-heavy in recent memory, and it’s leaving many fans upset with the league. After a wild 2025 postseason that saw the Dodgers repeat as champions and the Blue Jays push them to 7 games, bookmakers have set the tone early. A handful of teams, some of which you probably expected, have already separated themselves from the pack — not just on paper, but in payroll and betting odds too.

Los Angeles Dodgers — The Kings Stay Kings

Surprised? We didn’t think so. The Dodgers are still the clear favorites by a long shot — and for good reason when you look at what they’ve been doing. They won 93 games last year and came back from a 3-0 deficit in the NLCS, then won Game 7 of the World Series in extras against a dominant Toronto squad. That alone would have made them a betting favorite. But there’s more.

Then they signed Kyle Tucker.

The addition of Tucker, a Gold Glove-winning slugger who fits nicely in next to big names like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, turned an already elite lineup into something simply absurd. Their current World Series odds are +227, which is down significantly from their opener of +350. That’s quite a movement in the line that simply highlights both public betting and bookmaker adjustment.

Of course, teams don’t get a lineup like that unless they also have the league’s highest payroll at $429 million. Nope, that’s not a typo — it’s nearly $70 million more than the next closest team. Ohtani’s unique contract, which pays him $70 million in 2026 thanks to deferred money structuring, leads the way for the payroll.

There’s no subtlety here. The Dodgers are going for a 3-peat to join the likes of the Yankees and the Athletics, and Vegas sees it the same way. And if you think they’re going all in and mortgaging their backfill, think again. They have a top 10 farm system. This team is a dynasty.

Toronto Blue Jays — Ready To Finish the Job

Toronto came within just a single win of winning it all last year. They led the World Series 3-2, but dropped Games 6 and 7 at home to the Dodgers. However, they’re back again, and they’re definitely not messing around.

The Jays went out and spent some serious cash. Dylan Cease was acquired to front the rotation, giving Toronto the swing-and-miss ace they were missing in October. Kazuma Okamoto brings left-side power, and the bullpen got a pair of fresh arms in Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers. After years of several conservative offseasons, the Blue Jays finally pushed their chips in, and they’re making a statement.

Their odds opened at +900 but have lengthened quite a bit to +1400. That’s most likely due to the betting volume going elsewhere (ahem, Dodgers) or some lingering questions about pitching depth. Either way, we’re not going to read too much into that shift — the roster is stronger, and they’re coming off a 94-win season and an AL pennant. When you add tools to an already stacked roster, you can bet they’re going to make it deep into the playoffs.

They might not go heavy-handed like the Dodgers, but Toronto has also shown it’s not afraid to spend. They’re also 5th in payroll at $282 million, a franchise high, boosted by Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s 14-year insane megadeal and the Cease contract.

They’re rebranding and going for the gold and it’s apparent that this isn’t the same old Jays.

New York Yankees — Talent Still There, but a Slower Winter

The Yankees finished 2025 tied with Toronto at 94–68 but lost the division on a tiebreaker. After a Wild Card win, they got absolutely steamrolled by the Jays in the ALDS at 3-1. Most of the time, that would usually spark some kind of free agency frenzy in the Bronx or any other team for that matter, but this year, not so much, and that has surprised everyone.

Sure, ttey brought in Amed Rosario and gave Paul DeJong a spring training invite, but that’s about it. The biggest change to their approach is that they’re banking on internal improvements, and it’s easy to see why — bounce-backs from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and a healthy rotation will most likely instantly project them to the ALCS or even the World Series. The names they have just need to produce.

Their odds are around +1100 by most bookmakers, which is up from +750 at the open. That upward movement tells us the market isn’t entirely sold on them as a title threat right now, at least compared to the Jays or Dodgers. It could be that fans were expecting bigger moves, only to be disappointed.

But let’s not ignore the payroll — it’s still massive at a whopping $317 million, which is 4th overall. Nobody is surprised because NYY has always been fairly big spenders. Cody Bellinger is the highest-paid player by luxury tax hit in the league for 2026, and there’s still enough firepower to go toe-to-toe with anyone if it all clicks.

Despite already having the names, it’s hard to shake the feeling that the Yankees left something on the table this winter.

Seattle Mariners — Underdogs with Bite

Seattle was just 1 win away from the World Series last year. After winning the AL West for the first time in over 2 decades, they took Toronto to 7 games in the ALCS, and it was a wild one. And while the Dodgers, Yankees, and Jays grab the headlines, the Mariners quietly got a little better. Most didn’t notice, but the books sure did.

Josh Naylor is the big add. Even though he was acquired just before the deadline last year, they locked him in for another 5 years. He brings energy, power, and a clutch bat to a lineup that sorely needed help beyond the legendary Cal Raleigh. The Mariners didn’t spend big elsewhere, but that’s nothing new — their $166 million payroll is last among the 6 WS contenders and less than half of what the Dodgers are shelling out. They’re attempting to get a title by bootstrapping, and in this environment, we’re not so sure that will be effective.

Still, the odds show that there’s at least some belief in this group. Seattle sits at +1400, slightly longer than their opener of +1200, but still right in the mix of the contender tier. They’re well-coached, undeniably deep in pitching, and hungry for a World Series title.

Nobody’s calling them a juggernaut as they’re definitely far from that, but they don’t really need to be one. They just need one more big October moment, and it looks like they might have the tools to pull it off — if they’re lucky.

New York Mets: High Hopes, But Questions Remain

The Mets had one of the most bizarre seasons in recent history in 2025. They started out with a solid 45-24 — best in the league at one point — and then collapsed, going 38-55 down the latter stretch of the season. To everyone’s surprise, they missed the playoffs by a tiebreaker.

Naturally, Steve Cohen spent more.

Juan Soto is still the centerpiece icon of the team with his monster $61.8M salary, and Bo Bichette was the headline signing this winter. Jorge Polanco was added for a little more infield depth, and the overall roster looks far more athletic and balanced than it did last year. But Pete Alonso’s departure is by far the biggest blow to the team — both statistically and in the locker room.

Bookmakers have the Mets sitting at +1400, right in line with their opener, which really highlights a cautious optimism. Their $363 million payroll is 2nd only to the Dodgers, so it’s clear the money is there, but will it be enough?

The real question is whether the on-field results can match the financial investment. Those 2 are not mutually exclusive. If they gel early on again and hold onto it this time, the Mets could become a serious problem by midseason.

Philadelphia Phillies: Stability Over Splash

The Phillies keep finding themselves in the mix but can’t quite get over the hump. They were the #2 seed in the NL last year, which gave them a pass in the wild card round, but they got bounced by the Dodgers in the NLDS. Instead of making sweeping changes, the Phillies doubled down on their core.

They re-signed J.T. Realmuto, retained the bulk of their lineup, and promoted Preston Mattingly to GM. The bet here is that the combination of Harper, Turner, Wheeler, and Realmuto still has enough to win it all. That’s a solid foundation for any team.

The betting markets still seem lukewarm. Philly is sitting at +1600, drifting slightly away from their +1200 opener. While that’s not a huge swing, it is enough to suggest skepticism from bettors. Their payroll, meanwhile, is 4th-highest at $290 million — top-heavy and aging, but without a doubt highly talented.

It wouldn’t be shocking to see them back in the NLCS going toe to toe with the Dodgers, but right now, they aren’t getting priced like a top-tier contender. If you think this older squad can make a run for it, the value is there.

Who Has the Shot at Winning the 2026 World Series?

This year’s top contenders offer a wild mix of financial power, recent playoff success, and a bit of roster turnover. The Dodgers are the clear front-runners — and betting markets agree. But behind them, there’s a pack of talented clubs with undoubtedly legit shots at a deep run.

The Jays are, of course, hungry, the Yankees are quiet but nonetheless dangerous, Seattle is still knocking on the door, the Mets are seemingly unpredictable, and the Phillies are still holding firm.

If history tells us anything, it’s that October baseball rarely goes according to script, and last year was no exception. But right now, the betting markets, payrolls, and roster moves all point to a 2026 season loaded with star power and sky-high expectations.