2026 Masters Betting Guide: Best Bets, Value Picks, and Sleepers After Round 1 at Augusta

Round 1 of the 2026 Masters is in the books, and the leaderboard looks a little different than the market expected. Sam Burns and Rory McIlroy share the first-round lead at 5-under, Scottie Scheffler is closer than his pre-tournament reputation suggests at 2-under, and Bryson DeChambeau — one of the betting favorites entering the week — is buried at 4-over after a rough start that included a triple bogey on the 11th hole.

Here is a breakdown of the best bets, values to consider, and names to fade heading into the final three rounds of the 90th Masters Tournament at Augusta National.

The Current Leaderboard Picture

The full Round 1 standings set up a fascinating weekend at Augusta. McIlroy and Burns lead at 5-under, with Patrick Reed, Jason Day, and Kurt Kitayama three shots back at 3-under. Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele sit at 2-under alongside Justin Rose and Shane Lowry. Jon Rahm, who entered the week at +1000, is already in serious trouble at 6-over after failing to card a single birdie in Round 1. DeChambeau, another pre-tournament favorite, sits at 4-over. Both will need extraordinary rounds just to make the cut, let alone contend on the weekend.

Bets Worth Considering Heading Into Round 2

Scottie Scheffler represents the clearest value case heading into Friday. The world No. 1 is three shots back at 2-under after a 70 that was steadier than it appears on the surface — he hit 12 of 14 fairways, his best driving accuracy in 25 Tour rounds this season. Scheffler has never finished outside the top 20 at Augusta National in six career starts. He is a two-time champion and the kind of player who can convert consistent ball-striking into low rounds when everything clicks. His current implied odds likely offer better value than his pre-tournament price.

Patrick Reed at +4000 pre-tournament opened with an eagle-eagle start on the first two holes at Augusta — only the sixth player in Masters history to begin a round that way — and finished at 3-under 69. Reed’s Augusta record is quietly excellent: seven Masters appearances without a missed cut and four top-10 finishes since his 2018 victory. In seven appearances since winning the green jacket, no other player in the field has a more consistent Masters record relative to their outside results. If you can still find him at a number in the 30-1 to 40-1 range, that presents legitimate value for a proven Augusta performer.

Jason Day at 3-under 69 is flying under the radar but has a long history of competing well at Augusta. The 2015 PGA Championship winner has the kind of patient, deliberate game that Augusta rewards across four rounds. He entered the week at +8000 and his Round 1 performance should attract considerably more attention heading into the weekend.

Fades to Consider

DeChambeau had back-to-back LIV wins heading into this week and entered as a genuine co-favorite. His Round 1 76 — which included a triple bogey after three shots to escape a bunker at No. 11 — is not necessarily disqualifying on its own, but it requires an extraordinary turnaround just to make the cut, let alone contend for the title. Fading him outright for the week appears justified given the deficit and the course’s unforgiving nature.

Rahm at +1000 was a popular pick based on his dominant LIV form in 2026. His 78 on Thursday — no birdies, multiple bogeys, a double on the back nine — makes a realistic path to a top-5 finish extremely difficult. Augusta rewards patience and momentum, and a player who started this far behind would need rounds in the mid-60s across multiple days just to get into the conversation. That is not impossible for a player of Rahm’s caliber, but the odds no longer reflect fair value.

Sleepers Who Could Make a Move

Xander Schauffele at 2-under after a 70 remains one of the most analytically sound players in the field and has finished T10, 8th, and T8 in his last three Masters appearances. Three shots back with 54 holes remaining is an entirely comfortable position for a two-time major champion who has proven he can close at the biggest events.

Shane Lowry carded a 2-under 70 that included an eagle hole-out from 99 yards at the par-5 13th. Lowry has a creative short game and an underrated Augusta record. At +6000 heading into the week, he was not a primary target — but his Round 1 shows he is capable of contributing to a competitive weekend leaderboard.

The 2026 Masters has three rounds remaining. The course is firm, the weather forecast calls for clear skies through Sunday, and the leaderboard is tightly compressed in a way that virtually guarantees Sunday drama. Whoever holds the 54-hole lead should expect a dogfight down the back nine on Sunday afternoon — Augusta National always delivers one.