#11 Tennessee vs #6 Alabama Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Tonight’s Massive SEC Clash

No. 11 Tennessee heads to Tuscaloosa tonight to face No. 6 Alabama under the lights at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Both teams are 5-1, both have playoff hopes, and both are coming off gritty conference wins. Add in 2 of the SEC’s best QBs and you’ve got one of the weekend’s biggest matchups that you’re not going to want to miss.

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Game Details and Current Betting Odds

Alabama opens as an -8.5 favorite, with the total set at 59.5 points. The moneyline sits at -305 for Alabama, while Tennessee backers can get the Vols at +245 for the upset. The line goes to show the bookmakers’ confidence in Alabama’s defense and home-field edge, but the spread also hints that oddsmakers expect Tennessee to hang around and put up some points.

This will be the 108th meeting between these 2 storied programs. Alabama leads the all-time series 60-40-7 and had won 15 straight from 2007–2021 before Tennessee snapped the streak just last year. Now the Vols look to win back-to-back in the series for the first time since 2003–2004, but it’s not going to be a cake walk.

Offensive Fireworks Meet Defensive Discipline

We can’t sugarcoat it — Tennessee’s offense has been nothing short of electric. The Vols are averaging 48.2 PPG, which ranks 4th nationally, and they’re putting up 527+ yards of offense each week. Quarterback Joey Aguilar is at the center of it all as he’s throwing for 1,680 yards, 14 TDs, and just 5 picks. He’s also completing 65% of his passes and pushing the ball downfield aggressively, but accurately.

Behind the star are his weapons. Chris Brazzell II leads the team with 536 yards and 7 touchdowns, and he’s flanked by Brandon Staley with his 431 yards and Mike Matthews with his 416 yards. All 3 rank among the top 7 in receiving yards in the SEC, and Tennessee is the only team in the conference with that kind of trio at receiver, and they’ve got the quarterback to get them the ball.

Tennessee is also the only team in the SEC to score on every opening drive this season. That eye-popping state includes 4 touchdowns and 2 field goals. Basically, this is a team that doesn’t wait to get rolling.

But this week, they face their biggest test yet in Alabama’s defense. They’re allowing just 17.3 PPG and 136.5 passing YPG. That’s good for top-10 nationally in both categories. The secondary is experienced, deep, and physical — exactly what you want when taking on the best WRs in the game. While Tennessee has speed, Alabama has the discipline and scheme to slow down quick-strike offenses.

Quarterback Ty Simpson is quietly putting together a Heisman-worthy season himself. He’s thrown for 1,678 yards, 16 TDs, and only one interception while completing 71% of his passes. That kind of efficiency has been the difference for Alabama, which hasn’t lost since Week 1 at Florida State, which many could argue was a fluke. Over the last 5 games, one of which includes a win over Georgia, they’ve averaged 38.4 points per game, thanks in part to Simpson’s steady play and OC Ryan Grubb’s play-calling.

Jamarion Miller, the Tide’s top running back, was just upgraded to probable this week, and that’s the best news the team has received. He’s rushed for 267 yards on 58 carries this season. Even if he’s a go for the game, but limited, Alabama will lean more on the passing game, which may not be a bad thing given Tennessee’s shaky secondary.

Speaking of that Tennessee secondary, it’s missing its 2 best cornerbacks — Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson — who are both out again. That’s a massive blow against a team with Germie Bernard, who has 412 yards and 5 TDs, and freshman star Ryan Williams on the outside. Alabama’s receivers should have a major advantage against this secondary.

Can Tennessee’s Defense Hold Up?

Tennessee’s defense is a strange case. The Vols are allowing 29.3 points per game and nearly 394 yards of offense weekly, but they’ve been incredibly disruptive. They lead the SEC in sacks with 26 and are in the top 3 in takeaways with 11. Last week against Arkansas, they forced 4 fumbles and recovered 3. Those are the types of disruptions that can quickly change a game.

The defensive line, led by Tyre West, has been explosive off the edge. And junior LB Arion Carter leads the team with 57 tackles. This unit makes splash plays, and there’s no doubt about that, but they also give up chunk yardage and struggle to stay off the field. Tennessee ranks 274th in time of possession, holding the ball for under 27 minutes per game.

Now, contrast that with Alabama, which owns the ball for 34+ minutes per game, good for top 10 in the country, and you have a severe mismatch. If the Tide can sustain long drives and keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline, they could slowly wear down the Vols’ front 7 and control the tempo of the game.

Discipline is also a big concern for Tennessee, as they rank near the bottom nationally in penalties with 7.6 per game. That’s a dangerous place to be when facing Alabama’s precision offense. Tennessee’s defense is aggressive, but that can backfire if they can’t stay composed.

Tennessee and Alabama Prediction and Best Bet

This game will likely come down to which QB handles pressure better — and so far, that’s been Ty Simpson. He’s thrown just one INT all season and has yet to face a defense that’s even rattled him. Of course, Tennessee will test him with blitzes and edge pressure, but Alabama’s offensive line has held up well in recent weeks.

Tennessee’s best shot is to start fast and force Alabama to play catch-up, but that’s a tall order on the road against a defense that rarely breaks early. Alabama’s secondary should contain Tennessee’s explosive receivers, especially with the Vols missing key pieces in their defensive backfield.

Add in the home crowd and the fact that Alabama hasn’t lost to Tennessee at Bryant-Denny since 2003, and you can see that it’s hard to pick against the Tide.

• Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 24
• Best Bet: Alabama -8.5

This just might be the first game of the year where the Volunteers don’t score on their first drive. The Tide is balanced, efficient, and healthier at key spots, which sets them up nicely for this weekend. Tennessee can score in bunches, but Alabama’s defense and clock control should be enough to cover the spread. If the Vols get behind, we expect Simpson to put the game away with a clean, efficient second half.