We are back with another baseball play for you guys! World Series Game 3, and a huge turning point in this series. It’s time for the Yankees to show up or this thing is going to be over quick.
They find themselves down 2-0, Judge can’t find the baseball, and their offense hasn’t found many runs through 2 games. Perhaps home cooking and Walker Buehler could help them find their bats!
It could be tough for some to fade Walker Buehler coming off an impressive showing on the road against the Mets, but I expect him to regress some here. It has been reported that his velocity was down coming into the playoffs, and I do think there is something to that. He currently has an xFIP of 5.18 and xERA of 4.68.
Buehler on the road this season carried a 6.53 ERA, while 4.60 at home. He also allowed a .406 w0BA and a .585 slugging % on the road. If the Yankees are locked in, he could find himself another 6 run inning like he had in the NLDS against the Padres. In high leverage situations this season he has allowed a .333 average and a .460 wOBA.
The Yankees best opportunity is to jump on him early as his 1st time through the order the stats are up across the board, including a 6.21 ERA and .336 average through the 1st time, compared to a 4.09 and a .246 average the second time through. The Yankees found 10 hits in game 1, 5 on starter Flaherty and I think they can replicate that here.
Clarke Schmidt, starting for the Yankees has far better numbers I trust in this spot. Yes, he was much better on the road, and the Yankees might have made a mistake not pitching him in game 2 and saving Rodon for tonight, who is clearly better at home.
The Dodgers have not seen Schmidt and his two top pitches, the cutter and the slider, are two pitches the Dodgers hitters strike out to the most. With men in scoring position, Clark bears down to a .196 allowed average and a .250 on-base %.
In high leverage spots, he allows a .214 average and a .218 wOBA, far steadier than his counterpart tonight. If Aaron Judge could get right and help out Soto and Stanton, the Yankees could put together a few wins.
My Best Bets:
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