Week 10 College Football: Our 4 Best Bets for Saturday, November 1

Get all the info you need to make your Week 10 more profitable. Our college football insider shares his 4 best bets in this piece. Enjoy the games, and best of luck with all of your wagers this weekend.

Vanderbilt Commodores +2.5 over Texas Longhorns

Diego Pavia and the Commodores have been the darlings of the season thus far. At 7-1 and being ranked #9 in the country, Vandy has fans excited for a potential run at the national title. After losing their 1^st game to their 1^st ranked opponent of the season to Alabama (30-14). Vandy has since beaten back-to-back ranked teams in #10 LSU (30-24) and #15 Missouri (17-10).

In a defensive battle last week, Vandy used a short run from Pavia to take the lead with under 2 minutes remaining. The defense then held up and kept Missouri out of the endzone as they were trying to mount a late comeback drive with minimal timeouts. It was not a flashy game from the offense. It was encouraging to see Vandy be able to grind out a win in a low-scoring affair, unlike what they had to do against LSU, with scoring 31 points.

Texas has had arguably the most frustrating season of all the 2 loss teams in the country. At 6-2, their only losses came to, now #1, Ohio State and a pesky Florida team that is not as bad as their record. However, in their wins, they have not looked great either. They snuck out a 3-point win over Kentucky a couple weeks ago and are coming off an incredible come-from-behind win over Mississippi State, where they trailed 31-14 early in the 4^th quarter. They took it to overtime, where Arch Manning was knocked out of the game with a concussion and Matthew Caldwell had to come in for the game-winning touchdown. Manning is still in the concussion protocol and could be a gameday decision.

This is a funky game on so many levels. No one expected Vandy to be this good at this point of the season, and no one really expected Texas to be this bad. They could easily be 4-4 had they lost to Kentucky and Miss St. Now Manning is questionable, yet the Longhorns are somehow favored in this game. This seems so trappy for the Commodores, but they have just been finding ways to win recently and are riding high. The public is already backing the Longhorns despite them being slight favorites. We are a bit hesitant, but we are NOT going to back the Longhorns as well. Vandy’s only loss came on the road, but we believe in Diego Pavia to get the job done here in a game that could determine Vandy’s postseason fate.

Key Trends:

• Vandy is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
• Vandy is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
• Texas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.
• Texas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the East Division.

Georgia Bulldogs -7 over Florida Gators

Georgia is #5 in the country and is coming off an enormous win over then #5 Ole Miss two weeks ago. Gunner Stockton was magnificent in the 43-35 win. He finished with 4 touchdowns, almost 300 yards passing, completed almost 84% of his passes, and rushed for 39 yards and a score. The defense left a bit to be desired as they gave up the 2^nd most points all season. After the win, the Bulldogs had a bye week and will be fresh for this sneaky tough matchup in the swamp on Saturday afternoon.

Florida also had a bye week last week, but it was not as calm as the Bulldogs. Florida fired Billy Napier after they defeated Mississippi State the week prior in a move that seemed expected. Now with the extra week to prepare, interim head coach Billy Gonzales will have a chance to shock the world and knock off a top 5 team in his debut. As a previous wide receiver’s coach, it should be expected that Gonzales will want to get the ball moving through the air. Points are needed desperately for the Gators, as their only wins came when they scored over 20 points, and all their losses came when they scored below that number.

Billy Napier is gone, but by all accounts, he was a coach that the players did like. This is not the type of scenario where we think the players will play better now because the coach has been let go. Combine that with the fact that Georgia is playing at an extremely high level and Kirby Smart got an extra week to prepare for these Gators, we expect the Bulldogs to be able to cover the number here on the road. All respect to the swap, but Gonzales is simply going to be outmatched on the sidelines in this one.

Key Trends:

• Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the SEC.
• Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
• Florida is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games played in week 10.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Tennessee Volunteers OVER 56

The Oklahoma Sooners and QB John Mateer are coming off a rough outing against Ole Miss last week. In the 34-26 loss, Mateer completed less than 55% of his passes and was held to just 17 yards on the ground. Not only did Mateer struggle, but the defense gave up over 400 yards of total offense and allowed Ole Miss to convert on 9 of their 21 third-down attempts. The loss was their 2^nd in the last 3 weeks and has many doubting the Sooners’ ability to make the playoff with Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU to finish up their regular season schedule. However, they cannot focus on the future and need to take care of business against Tennessee this week.

Tennessee is also sitting with 2 losses, but their losses have come to the perennial SEC powerhouses in Alabama and Georgia. Last week, they hung 56 points on Kentucky in the 56-24 road victory. Joey Aguilar looked to be at his very best in the win. He finished with almost 400 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, and completed almost 77% of his passes. The defense was not great and allowed almost 500 yards of total offense to Kentucky, which is outside the top 160 in the country in yards per game. If they want to win this one at home, the defense is going to need to pull its weight.

Oklahoma is led by its defense, and Tennessee is led by its offense. Contrasting styles that should make for an intriguing matchup. The Vols are a short favorite here, but we believe they are going to dictate the pace at which this game is played. Oklahoma could still cover or win the game, but we expect it to be high scoring, no matter who ends up covering. Let’s hope John Mateer can prove that he still has what it takes against this weak Volunteer defense.

Key Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tennessee’s last 12 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 5 games played in November.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee’s last 8 games when playing as the favorite.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games at home.

Utah Utes -10 over Cincinnati Bearcats

We get a late-night top 25 matchup on the West Coast this Saturday. The 7-1 Bearcats will head to Salt Lake City to take on the 6-2 Utah Utes. Cincy has run the table since losing its season opener to Nebraska. The Bearcats have been scoring an average of 41.2 points per game during their 7-game win streak. They even collected a win over a ranked opponent in then #14 Iowa State. Brendan Sorsby, the former Indiana Hoosier, has completely settled in with his 2nd season as the QB for Cincy. He is averaging over 225 yards passing and throwing 19 touchdowns with just 1 interception. He has also added 7 scores with his legs as well. The defense has been strong for Cincy, holding opponents under 20 points per game.

The Utes bounced back nicely last week after taking a tough 24-21 loss against rival BYU the week prior. Last week, they dominated Colorado from start to finish with a 53-7 victory. Ficklin and Parker combined for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 30 carries. Ficklin was not super accurate through the air but did manage to toss 2 more touchdowns and not turn the ball over. The defense looks as good as it has all season, as it held the Buffaloes to just 140 yards of total offense. An offense that is averaging over 333 yards per game.

This seems like a big number for a matchup of two top 25 teams, but Utah’s defense and rushing offense are going to be the difference. They are going to punish the Bearcats on the ground and extend drives, while the defense will keep Sorsby in check. This will be the toughest environment Sorsby will be in to this point in the season. Look for that 1 under his interception category to jump after this game. The public is over 60% to the Bearcats, but we like the Utes to ride the momentum from last week into this one and cover the big number.

Key Trends:

• Cincy is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games played in November.
• Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing as the favorite.
• Utah is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
• Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.