Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Washington Commanders head to Detroit for a high-stakes NFC Divisional Round clash with the Lions. With Jared Goff leading one of the league’s best offenses and rookie QB Jayden Daniels quickly making a name for himself, this matchup will undoubtedly deliver some excitement for your Saturday night.

This game might be a bit more lopsided than you’d expect, but that doesn’t mean there’s not plenty to bet on.

Lions vs Commanders Odds and Analysis

The Lions enter as clear favorites. They’re buoyed by a well-rested roster after their bye week during the NFC Wild Card round. They’ve been absolutely dominant on offense, leading the league in points per game with 33.2 and total yards per game at 410. We think this boils down to their ability to control games with a balanced attack makes them tough to beat.

Jared Goff has been stellar all season long. He’s thrown for a monstrous 4,629 yards, 37 TDs, and only 12 interceptions on the season. His ability to handle pressure will of course be tested against the Commanders’ aggressive pass rush, which ranks 5th in the NFL in blitz frequency. Despite this, Goff’s efficiency under pressure and scrambling when he needs to have been a strong point as he’s ranking 9th in passer rating when pressured.

The Commanders, led by their superstar rookie Jayden Daniels, have surprised many — including us — with their playoff run. Daniels’ dual-threat capabilities have led him to 3,568 passing yards and 891 rushing yards and provide a dynamic element to their offense. However, he’ll face a Lions defense that dominates in stopping the run as they’ve allowed just 98 yards per game on the ground. 

Daniels is fast, but the Lions’ linebackers might be faster. Detroit’s defense will look to force Daniels into tough passing situations or to scramble, as their secondary has been much more vulnerable. They’ve allowed on average 244 yards per game in the air which puts them at 30th in the NFL.

Key Matchups

On paper, this seems like it can go only one way, which it could, but there are a few key areas we’ll be watching for in this game.

Detroit’s Ground Game vs. Washington’s Run Defense

The Lions’ rushing attack, spearheaded by Jahmyr Gibbs and his 1,412 yards and 16 TDs, has been electric despite losing Montgomery to a season-ending injury.

They average 146 yards per game and boast 29 rushing touchdowns on the year. Gibbs is definitely doing his part, especially since becoming RB1 just a few weeks ago.

The Commanders, on the other hand, struggle quite a bit against the run. They’ve allowed a dismal 154 yards per game and 25 rushing TDs. Detroit’s ability to control the ground game might just be the deciding factor in this matchup.

Jayden Daniels vs. Lions’ Defense

Daniels has been the spark for Washington. He’s breaking records for rushing yards by a rookie quarterback while maintaining a superb 69% completion rate.

However, Detroit’s defense thrives in limiting mobile QBs. So, with that, they’ll look to force Daniels into mistakes.

With the Lions allowing just 20.1 points per game, the Commanders will need Daniels to play mistake-free football — under pressure and in the Lion’s stadium. That’s a tall order.

Jared Goff vs. Commanders’ Pass Rush

Washington’s defense will try everything they can to disrupt Goff with their aggressive blitzing schemes.

While Goff has performed pretty decently against high pressure, the Commanders’ front 7 could create some opportunities for turnovers.

However, to counter that, Detroit’s offensive line has been one of the best in the league. They’ve been giving Goff the protection he needs to execute their high-powered offense on his terms.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Lions hold the edge in nearly every key area imaginable.

Their offense is firing on all cylinders, and their run game is absolutely dominant. Their game script will undoubtedly be set up for success against Washington’s struggling rush defense.

While Jayden Daniels’ ability to extend plays will give the Commanders a chance to stay competitive, we think Detroit’s balanced attack and 69% red zone efficiency will most likely prove too much for the Commander’s to handle.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Detroit Lions 34, Washington Commanders 24
• Best Bet: Lions -7.5

Detroit’s ability to exploit Washington’s run defense gives them a clear path to covering the spread and moving onto the NFC Championship. When you combine that with home-field advantage and a little bit of extra rest, this feels like a game where the Lions control the tempo from start to finish without breaking too much of a sweat.

Jayden Daniels will surely learn from this loss and be an even better quarterback next year.