Vikings vs Lions Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Minnesota Vikings roll into Detroit tomorrow with their 3-4 record to face the Lions, who are sitting at 5-2 in a divisional clash with very different vibes on each sideline. One team is scrambling for answers while the other is hitting its stride and making a run for the playoffs. With the kickoff set for 1 p.m. EST on Fox, the sportsbooks have spoken — Detroit is a heavy favorite, currently listed at -8.5 with the over/under at 47.5.

The Vikings are hoping rookie QB J.J. McCarthy can inject life into an offense that just scored 10 points in a blowout loss to the Chargers. Detroit, on the other hand, is coming off a refreshing bye and has looked every bit like a top NFC contender.

Game Details, Betting Lines, and Context

Detroit is laying 8.5 points at home, with the moneyline set around -500. That makes them one of the biggest favorites of the week. Minnesota is a +380 underdog, and it’s not hard to see why when you look at their season this far. The Lions have won 5 straight games over the Vikings, which includes a 31-9 dismantling to end last season. QB Jared Goff is 8-0 ATS vs Minnesota since joining Detroit, and the Lions are 5-2 ATS overall this season. On top of that, the Lions have won 5 of their last 6 games after an embarrassing loss to Green Bay to kick the season off.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are just 3-4 ATS, and they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games, and 2 of them were by double digits. On top of that, they’ll be trotting out a rookie QB who has just a 21.6 QBR in his 2 NFL games and will be behind an injury-plagued offensive line. That’s rarely a good recipe on the road.

Lions Are the More Complete Team — and It’s Not Close

The numbers back up what we’re seeing on the field. Detroit ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring offense with 30.7 points per game and 3rd in total offense. They’re getting it done both through the air and on the ground as they’re 9th in passing yards and 13th in rushing yards per game. Overall, they average over 367 YPG.

The star of the show is undoubtedly Jared Goff, who has 1,631 passing yards, 15 TDs, and just 3 picks this season. In his last 4 games against the Vikings, he lit them up for 1,000+ yards with a 78.5% completion rate and a QBR of 80.6. There’s no reason to think Minnesota will slow him down this time around, and definitely not with only 3 picks on the year and just 18 total sacks.

If we’re going to pick someone, Jahmyr Gibbs might be the X-factor here. In just 4 career games against Minnesota, he’s scored 9 TDs and rushed for 255 yards on 38 carries in 2 matchups last year. That’s a ridiculous 6.7 yards per carry, and we don’t see him slowing down. The Vikings just allowed 207 rushing yards to the Chargers last week and have now given up 200+ yards on the ground in 2 separate games this season. That’s a massive red flag heading into a matchup with one of the league’s best rushing attacks.

And then there’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has 7 touchdown catches already this year, 6 of which have come in home games. He’s a nightmare out of the slot, especially with defenses forced to respect the run game.

Defensively, Aidan Hutchinson leads a unit that’s 8th in total defense and 4th against the run, allowing just 87.7 YPG on the ground. They’ve also piled up 23 sacks, ranking in the top third of the league in pressure. That’s really bad news for J.J. McCarthy, who’s playing just his 3rd NFL game of his career. He’s already been sacked 9 times and thrown 3 picks in limited action. With Wentz on the IR, if McCarthy goes down because the O-Line can’t protect him, it’ll leave the untested Max Brosmer to take it over, and he only has 8 pass attempts in his career.

The Lions also boast a +6 turnover differential, where Minnesota is -4. That kind of swing matters in a game where the underdog is already at a talent disadvantage.

Vikings Are Scrappy, But They’re Outmatched

To be fair, the Vikings aren’t exactly lifeless. Justin Jefferson is still elite, already racking up 600+ receiving yards, and Jordan Mason has added nearly 400 yards on the ground. Minnesota is also the only NFL team with multiple sacks in every game this season — a stat that shows they can generate pressure.

However, the situation surrounding rookie QB J.J. McCarthy isn’t ideal. After missing 5 games due to an ankle injury, he’s stepping into a road matchup behind a battered line. Both starting tackles — Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill — are dealing with knee injuries, and while they returned to practice, it’s unclear yet if either will be at 100%. The offense is also down key blocking personnel like TE Josh Oliver and FB C.J. Ham.

Minnesota’s run game has been, to say the least, inconsistent, averaging just 93.9 YPG, and they rank near the bottom in time of possession. That puts even more pressure on McCarthy, and it’s hard to envision him finding a rhythm against a defense that is better at all three levels.

On defense, the Vikings are solid against the pass, where they’re 8th in the league, but they’ve been gashed on the ground and are thin due to injuries in the secondary. They’ll need to slow down both Gibbs and St. Brown, which we all know is a tall task with so many personnel issues.

Prediction and Final Thoughts

This matchup has “Lions blowout” written all over it, and we’d bet even some Vikings fans might not watch this slaughter.

Detroit is rested, healthier, and playing at home against a team it has dominated in recent seasons. Minnesota’s offense is in flux, and its defense is too leaky to trust against one of the most balanced attacks in the NFL.

Detroit’s ability to jump out early and control the pace with the run game, paired with a defense that can create chaos for a rookie QB, makes them the clear pick here.

• Prediction: Lions 31, Vikings 13
• Best Bet: Detroit Lions -8.5

Goff’s track record, Gibbs’ history against Minnesota, and Detroit’s overall balance make the spread feel way too low. Even if the Vikings hang around early, we expect the Lions to pull away late with turnovers and chunk plays to win the game in a convincing fashion.