Vikings vs Cowboys Prediction — Can Minnesota Survive Dallas’ Firepower on SNF?

The Minnesota Vikings head to Dallas tonight for an SNF showdown with the Cowboys that has major playoff implications for both teams. The Vikings, sitting at 5-8, are clinging to slim postseason hopes for a wild-card slot, while the 6-6-1 Cowboys are looking to stay alive in a crowded NFC East race. Dallas comes in as a 5.5-point favorite, and on paper, they look like the stronger team—but this one has some unexpected layers to it. It isn’t as cut and dry as you’d expect.

Game Details, Odds, and What’s at Stake

The game kicks off at 7:20 p.m. EST tonight on NBC from AT&T Stadium in Arlington. DraftKings has the Cowboys as 5.5-point favorites, with the total at 48.5. The moneyline is -270 for Dallas and +220 for Minnesota.

Dallas is coming off a high-scoring 44-30 loss to the Lions. That game unfortunately snapped a 3-game win streak. Minnesota surprisingly just shut out Washington 31-0 in J.J. McCarthy’s best game as a starter, but that win snapped a brutal 4-game losing streak, and now they’re looking at a bit more of a challenge this week.

These teams are trending in opposite directions in terms of consistency, and while the Cowboys definitely have playoff aspirations, the Vikings are running out of time, and fast. On top of that, road games haven’t been all that kind to them.

Why Dallas Has the Edge

Dak Prescott is looking like he’s in MVP-type form, ranking among the league leaders with 3,637 yards and 26 TDs, while completing 69% of his passes. George Pickens is doing his part with 1,179 yards and 8 TDs, and CeeDee Lamb and his 865 yards in 10 games give him one of the top receiving duos in the NFL. Lamb is cleared to play after a concussion scare, which only strengthens an already dangerous Dallas offense. You can bet that the news will change the game script for the Vikings.

The Cowboys are first in total offense with a whopping 406.8 YPG and passing yards per game at 287.4. On the ground, Javonte Williams has broken the 1,000-yard mark and ranks 7th in the league among all RBs. They’re 3rd in PPG with 29.3, so even with a shaky defense, they can hang points on anybody.

And speaking of defense — yes, Dallas has some serious issues. They rank 31st in points allowed and 32nd in pass defense. Then pile on the fact that they are dealing with injuries to key players like TE Jake Ferguson and LT Tyler Guyton, and it’s clear why they have one of the worst defenses in the league. But even with those setbacks, their offense tends to mask the flaws.

Prescott has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games, and he’ll be as motivated as ever to make it 4 against a team he shredded in 2022 with a 40-3 win.

Minnesota’s Upside—and the Big Question

The Vikings undeniably just put together their most complete game of the season, blanking the Commanders 31-0. More importantly, J.J. McCarthy had his best outing as he threw for 3 TDs and no picks with a 129.2 rating. However, before we get too excited, let’s not overreact — it came against Washington, not exactly a defensive juggernaut. Then again, neither are the Cowboys, but they at least have an offense that won’t allow a shutout.

McCarthy is still only completing 56% of his passes this season and has been wildly inconsistent. The real bright spot is Jordan Mason, who leads the team with 630 rushing yards and 6 TDs. He’s quietly averaging over 6 YPC in his last 5 games and gives Minnesota a much-needed punch on the ground. You can bet that he’ll be a big part of the game script for tonight’s matchup and hopefully allow the Vikings to control the clock a bit against this high-octane offense.

Defensively, Minnesota is no joke. They’re 8th in yards allowed and 4th against the pass, giving up just 172.3 YPG through the air. In fact, they’ve held 12 of their 13 opponents to under 250 passing yards — and just 112 per game over the last 3.

This defense is without a doubt legit, but it’s really the offense that makes you pause.

Justin Jefferson has just 15 receiving yards over the last 2 games. The explosive WR is clearly still off rhythm post-injury, and his presence hasn’t opened up the field like usual. T.J. Hockenson found the end zone last week and may be the safety blanket McCarthy leans on again in this one.

Another glaring issue is the turnovers. The Vikings are -12 in turnover differential, which ranks among the worst in the league. Despite the Cowboys ’ defense being one of the worst in the NFL, it doesn’t take a defensive powerhouse to take advantage of a flaw like that.

Prediction — Cowboys Too Much at Home

This feels like a bad spot for Minnesota despite the momentum they have behind them after last week. They’re 1-7 on the road and 5-10 in prime time under Kevin O’Connell. Going into Dallas — where the Cowboys are 4-2 — and asking McCarthy to outgun Dak is a lot. And while the Vikings’ pass defense is strong, Dallas has way too many weapons to contain. If Prescott avoids turnovers, he’s going to find open windows.

Minnesota’s defense will hang in early and even make a game of it, but the offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up, even if McCarthy has another gem like last week. Even if Mason gets going, the Vikings are near the bottom in scoring with 19.6 PPG, and their passing game just isn’t efficient enough to threaten the Cowboys consistently.

• Prediction: Cowboys 30, Vikings 17
• Best Bet: Cowboys -5.5

Dallas covers the spread here, but it should definitely be a good game. The Vikings have been a mess on the road, and the Cowboys’ offensive line — though fairly banged up — should give Dak enough time to pick apart a defense that hasn’t faced an offense this explosive all year.

After tonight, Dallas keeps its playoff hopes alive, and the Vikings likely fall out of the race.