Utah Mammoth vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Pick

The Utah Mammoth heads into Buffalo tonight to take on the Sabres for a matchup that has one of the most quietly solid teams in the Central Division against a Sabres squad struggling to find consistency. Utah is coming into this one as -130 road favorites, while Buffalo sits at +110 on the moneyline. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with slight juice on the under at -115.

Utah is 8-4-0 on the year and sits 3rd in the Central Division behind only Winnipeg and Colorado, both of whom are having phenomenal seasons. They’re coming off a solid 3-2 win over Winnipeg and a 6-2 beatdown of Minnesota the day before that. Buffalo, on the other hand, is 5-4-3 and clinging to the bottom half of the Atlantic Division, though they’ve been tough at home with a 5-2-1 record. Don’t let that record fool you, though, because the Atlantic Division is one of the toughest in the NHL.

Game Breakdown — Who’s Trending Up?

Let’s start with the obvious — Utah is without a doubt the better team right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, with the only loss coming against Tampa Bay. Over that stretch, they’ve outscored the others 21-13. That includes a strong offensive push led by Nick Schmaltz, who’s posted 17 points across 7 goals and 10 assists so far. He’s been backed up by Logan Cooley, who’s chipped in 8 goals of his own and is emerging as a legitimate threat on their top 6.

Buffalo, on the other hand, is hanging on by a thread. Yes, they beat Washington in a shootout in their last game, but that came after 3 straight overtime losses to Boston, Columbus, and Toronto. That means the Sabres are keeping games close, but having a hard time figuring out how to close them out.

Offensively, Alex Tuch is doing his part with 12 points, spanning 5 goals and 7 helpers, but the team still ranks 21st in goals scored and 25th in shooting percentage at just 9.8%. That inefficiency has been their Achilles heel the entire season. Even with more assists than Utah, they’re just not turning those setups into goals.

Goaltending Edge — Utah Has the Advantage

One of the biggest differences in this matchup is between the pipes. Utah is expected to start Karel Vejmelka, who owns a 2.79 GAA and .890 SV%. While that’s not necessarily elite, he’s been stable and good enough to win games when the offense shows up.

Buffalo, however, is rolling out Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who has a rough 3.34 GAA and .877 SV%. He’s allowed way too many soft goals, and that’s not going to cut it against a Utah squad that’s coming into this averaging 3.5 GPG, good for 10th in the NHL.

In fact, Buffalo’s goaltending as a whole has been an issue. Even with 3 goalies splitting time, the only standout has been Colten Ellis, with just one start. That lack of a true No. 1 starter is undoubtedly costing them close games.

Special Teams and Penalties

Here’s where we think Buffalo can hang in this game — their penalty kill is elite, sitting at 90.5%, which leads the NHL. That’s undeniably impressive and something they’ll need to lean on, especially since they’ve taken a whopping 143 penalty minutes, 5th-most in the league. Utah isn’t exactly squeaky clean either, racking up 124 PIM, but they’ve been slightly more disciplined lately, and their PK unit isn’t nearly as good as Buffalo’s.

Both teams’ power plays are middle-of-the-pack: Buffalo is just ahead at 20% while Utah is at 19.5%. Sure, that’s not a big edge, but combined with Buffalo’s PK, it could slow Utah’s scoring if the game gets whistle-heavy.

The Bottom Line

Utah is playing the better hockey right now. They’re deeper up front, more efficient in finishing scoring chances, and simply more reliable in net. Their recent form includes 3 wins in 4 games, and even their loss to Tampa Bay was competitive and against one of the better teams in the NHL. Meanwhile, Buffalo just can’t finish games, their goaltending is unreliable, and they’ve had to settle for OT far too often.

• Prediction: Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
• Best Bet: Utah Mammoth -130 on the moneyline

Yes, Buffalo has been better at home, and we can’t overlook that, but it’s hard to trust a team giving up 3.17 GPG and starting a goalie with a sub-.880 SV%. Utah’s offense should generate enough chances to cash in, and if they stay out of the box, Buffalo’s biggest strength — their PK — won’t even come into play.

If you’re looking for a totals bet for your slip, you might want to consider taking the over at 6.5. Buffalo is like a colander in the net, but they also have some players that should be able to find the back of Utah’s net a few times this game. 6 goals seems way too low for these 2 teams.