Utah Hockey Club vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

Thursday night hockey is always loaded with good matchups but tonight brings a strong Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference battle as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Utah Hockey Club at Amalie Arena. With the puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET, you have plenty of time to get your bets in on this game.

The Lightning is heavily favored on home ice at -195 on the moneyline, with Utah coming in as +165 underdogs.

This is the 2nd matchup between the 2 teams this week, and Utah holds the early edge after a 6-4 win in the first leg. Can they do it again in Tampa? We’re not so sure about that and here’s why.

Betting Odds and Recent Trends

The bookmakers are expecting a bounce-back game from the Lightning. The puck line sits at -1.5 in favor of Tampa Bay, while the total is 6.5 goals, shaded slightly to the under.

Tampa Bay enters tonight’s game with a healthy 41-25-5 record, sitting near the top of the Atlantic Division — they’re easily in the playoffs, but doing what they can for positioning. Utah, on the other hand, is hanging around the playoff fringe at 32-28-11 in the Central Division. They’re 8 points back from a wild card slot, so their hopes are dwindling for making the playoffs in their inaugural season in Salt Lake City.

Despite their playoff hopes, both clubs have been floating around .500 in their last 10 games. Utah is a bit better with 5-3-2 in that stretch, while Tampa Bay is uncharacteristically at 5-4-1.

Utah’s 6-4 win earlier this week came behind an offensive surge and a power play that finally clicked. But asking them to do it again on the road against a stronger goalie will most likely be a different story.

Utah Has Upside, But Tampa’s Talent Runs Deeper

Utah’s best weapon is Clayton Keller. He’s had a strong season with 78 points spanning 24 goals and 54 assists. He’s a dual threat who makes plays happen, and his chemistry with Dylan Guenther has given this team a breath of life on offense. But the depth scoring behind them has been inconsistent and that’s been their biggest downfall of the season.

Defensively, Utah gives up 3.00 goals per game, which is a bit concerning against a team like Tampa Bay that’s loaded on the top 6. On top of that, goaltending has been average at best. Karel Vejmelka is the main guy, with a .905 SV% and 2.56 GAA, but he’s coming off a game where he allowed 4 goals and didn’t exactly hold the fort late. In his defense, the blue line was a bit sloppy in that game as well.

On the flip side, Tampa Bay continues to lean on their big guns and they have a couple. Nikita Kucherov is putting together another MVP-level season, already at 101 points which puts him tied for 2nd in the NHL with Draisaitl. Brayden Point adds 35 goals and his elite finishing ability, and this team has depth, especially in transition.

More importantly, Andrei Vasilevskiy gives Tampa the edge in between the pipes. He owns a respectable 34-19-3 record, a 2.22 GAA, and a strong .920 SV%. That’s elite-tier stuff and he’s one of the best in the NHL. It’s tough to imagine Utah putting another 6 goals past him, especially after he was rested in the previous game.

Game Breakdown

Tampa Bay is simply better structured and more dangerous at home, and there’s no question about that. They average a whopping 3.51 GF/G, quite a bit more than Utah’s 2.85, and have a much more efficient power play with 25.7% compared to Utah’s 22.3%.

Even though Utah stole Game 1, they were outshot and benefited from a couple of unforced errors by Tampa. That kind of luck doesn’t tend to carry over in back-to-back matchups, especially when the Lightning can throw out Kucherov, Point, and Hedman in front of their home crowd and have no problem lighting the lamp.

Tampa Bay also has a strong PK unit and a top-tier netminder ready to bounce back. The defense should be more locked in after the high-scoring loss, and you can expect the Lightning to control the puck more effectively in this game.

Utah’s recent stretch is solid, but when you compare rosters, goaltending, and even their offensive depth, they’re still a level behind Tampa. It’s hard to see them taking both of their regular-season games.

Utah vs. Tampa Bay Prediction

We’re backing the Lightning to easily win this one and cover the puck line on top of that. After losing to Utah on the road, this is a great bounce-back spot for one of the better home teams in the NHL. Vasilevskiy is undeniably the X-factor, and we don’t expect Utah to find the same success twice in one week against a goalie of his caliber.

We think Tampa Bay will control the tempo, win the special teams battle, and finish strong in front of their fans.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Lightning 5, Utah 2
• Best Bet: Lightning -1.5 at +130

For tonight’s matchup, we’re taking the Lightning -1.5 at plus money. They’re coming back with a vengeance.