USC vs Oregon Prediction — Ducks’ Defense Faces Trojans’ Air Raid

The Pac-12 may be fading into history, but Saturday’s USC-Oregon showdown at Autzen Stadium still feels like a nostalgic Pac-12 playoff game. The #6 Ducks, who are sitting at 9-1, are eyeing a CFP spot, while #16 USC, sitting at 8-2, is clinging to hope. For Lincoln Riley’s Trojans, a win in Eugene could literally change everything going forward in the season. For Dan Lanning’s Ducks, it’s a must-win to keep title hopes alive.

Either way, we’re looking at 2 solid teams and possibly the best game of the weekend.

Game Details, Kickoff Info, and Where to Watch

Kickoff is set for 2:30 PM CT at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, with the forecast calling for a cool 47 degrees, which is perfect football weather in the Pacific Northwest. The game will be broadcast live on CBS, so there’s no reason for you to miss out on this matchup.

USC is 2-2 on the road this season, but both losses came away to ranked teams — Illinois and Notre Dame, both of which are far from pushovers. Historically, they haven’t fared well in big road games, and Eugene has been especially brutal for just about every team, but it’s worth noting that they haven’t won there since 2011.

Odds and Betting Lines

Oregon opened as an 8.5-point favorite, and the line has moved down just a bit to -10.5, reflecting strong confidence in the Ducks at home. The total sits at a heavy 59.5, which feels about right given how explosive both offenses can be. On the moneyline, Oregon is the favorite at -380, while USC is a tempting +290.

Oregon has covered in 4 of its last 5, while USC has failed to cover in both of its road losses to ranked teams.

USC vs Oregon Matchup Breakdown

This isn’t just a strength vs strength game like some of the other showdowns going on this weekend, it’s a borderline clash of identities. USC thrives on offense, while Oregon is powered by its defense. That means this game is going to be great.

The Trojans are averaging 38.2 PPG and nearly 489 yards of offense, led by Jayden Maiava, who’s thrown for 2,868 yards, 18 TDs, and 6 picks. Makai Lemon is the go-to weapon with his 71 catches, 1,090 yards, and 8 TDs, with 5 100+ yard games and value in the return game too. They may be ranked 16, but that’s easily a top 5 offense overall.

But the Oregon defense is no joke. They’re top-10 nationally in just about every major category, including points allowed with a lowly 13.7 and yards allowed at just 235.4. They’re holding opponents to just 127.3 passing YPG, which is going to be the biggest test Maiava has seen all year.

Offensively, Oregon isn’t all that far behind either. They average 39 PPG and over 475 yards, with QB Dante Moore coming off a clinic vs Minnesota, where he went a stunning 27-for-30, 306 yards, and put up 2 TDs. He’s up to 2,190 yards and 21 TDs on the year, with just 5 INTs.

Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington are a strong 1-2 punch on the ground, and while Oregon doesn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver like Lemon, they spread it around a little more. Freshmen WR Dakorien Moore leads with 443 yards, and that’s partly because Moore, the QB, doesn’t force anything. It’s about efficiency, and it’s working. We don’t see them changing up this game plan for USC.

On defense, Teitum Tuioti and his 5.5 sacks and Bryce Boettcher and his 77 tackles help anchor a unit that just shuts teams down. They’re also very disciplined. USC’s edge in turnover margin isn’t much of a factor here as both teams are nearly even in interceptions.

Injuries

USC is a bit banged up, and that may come to haunt them against a team like Oregon. Safeties Kamari Ramsey and Bishop Fitzgerald, and LG Elijah Paige, all exited last week’s win over Iowa. Their statuses remain up in the air, but against Oregon’s balanced offense, missing defensive starters in the secondary is a massive problem that could snowball quickly.

Recent Form

Both teams enter this game with a little momentum behind them. USC has won 3 straight, including a gritty 26-21 comeback over Iowa. Oregon has won 4 in a row, including a 42-13 domination of Minnesota. That came after a road win at Iowa and a beatdown of Rutgers. Since their loss to Indiana, Oregon has been nearly flawless, and they don’t appear to be slowing down.

Meanwhile, USC’s last road trip was a win at Nebraska, but their last 2 ranked road opponents (Notre Dame this year, plus multiple last year) handed them losses. History isn’t on the Trojans’ side coming into this afternoon’s game.

Key Matchup — USC’s Passing Offense vs Oregon’s Pass Defense

This is what the game hinges on. USC throws for nearly 300 YPG, and they’ll need every bit of that to keep up with Oregon. But the Ducks allow just 127.3 passing YPG, which ranks 4th in the nation. Something is going to have to give.

Makai Lemon is good enough to hurt anyone, but Oregon’s scheme is designed to take away the deep stuff and force underneath throws. Maiava has shown he can stay patient, but doing it in front of a loud Autzen crowd with playoff hopes on the line is another level of pressure.

Prediction — Ducks Make the Statement

USC will move the ball. Maiava and Lemon are simply too talented not to. But Oregon’s defense is built to bend, not break, and in a game like this, on their home turf, one or two red zone stops can make all the difference.

USC’s injuries in the secondary are one of the biggest issues, especially when facing an offense that doesn’t rely on one guy to beat you. Dante Moore is playing at his highest level of the season, and he doesn’t turn the ball over. With USC likely needing to score on nearly every possession to keep up, any slip-up could be fatal, as the Ducks will capitalize.

Oregon has the better defense, more balance, and the home crowd. That’s enough to get the job done and add 1 to the win column.

• Prediction: Oregon 34, USC 24
• Best Bet: Oregon -10.5

USC’s offense can hang around for a little while, but once Oregon’s defense gets a few stops — and they surely will — the Ducks will take control. Lay the points. If you’re chasing a plus-money angle, an SGP with Oregon -10.5 and UNDER 59.5 has decent value.