Happy Hump Day, sports betting family. We went 5-1 last week with our college football best bets and are looking to finish the year on a high note. It’s hard to believe that we only have two weeks left in the regular season.
I’ve found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon’s USC vs Oregon game, which kicks off at 3:30 Eastern Time on CBS. I’ve broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a sensational battle in the Beaver State. Let’s get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Oregon -9.5 on the look-ahead line back in the summer months. Surprisingly, the current number is now exactly the same. It looks like the sharp money is thinking that USC’s well-documented road woes will continue.
As for the game total, there’s been a huge hunger for the Over so far. The line opened at 55.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now dealing 59.5. FanDuel is currently offering the best odds on the Over (-105) as of Wednesday morning.
Jayden Maiava has done an excellent job as the trigger man for the Trojans this season, as he’s thrown for 2868 yards and 18 TDs in Lincoln Riley’s dynamic offense. Maiava enjoys throwing to a pair of future NFL wideouts in Makai Lemon (1090 rec yds, 8 TDs) and Ja’Kobi Lane (585 rec yds, 4 TDs). This terrific trio is a big reason why USC leads the nation in yards per play on offense.
USC’s defense has some strengths, but they’re actually quite average in a lot of aspects. The Trojans rank just 58th in yards per play allowed and 44th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. Bishop Fitzgerald is a big-time safety who leads the squad with 5 interceptions this season. Eric Gentry leads the team in tackles with 64.
Dante Moore has fell out of the Heisman race, but the Ducks’ signal caller is still having a tremendous season. He’s thrown for 2190 yards and 21 TDs so far this season. He’s a big reason why Oregon ranks 20th in yards per pass in 2025. Moore’s favorite targets are Dakorien Moore (443 rec yds, 3 TDs) and Kenyon Sadiq (407 rec yds, 6 TDs).
The passing game is solid, but Dan Lanning loves to pound the rock, and his team does it better than anyone else in college football. The 1-2 punch of Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison is simply more than most defenses can handle. That duo has combined for over 1000 rushing yards and 17 TDs this year.
The Ducks defense has been elite, as they rank 1st in yards per pass allowed and a respectable 16th in yards per rush allowed. Teitum Tuioti leads the team in sacks with 5.5, so USC will have to know where he’s lining up before they snap the ball.
I try to fade USC on the road whenever a good opportunity presents itself. The Trojans are a putrid 2-11 against the spread in their last 13 outings on the highway. I really don’t think they’ll handle the raucous Autzen Stadium crowd noise very well on Saturday afternoon.
Oregon is always a beast at home, and this year has been no different. The Ducks are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS this season when playing in the friendly confines of Autzen. The Ducks also have several matchup advantages.
Oregon has both the 2nd-best offense AND defense in the nation as far as yards per play is concerned. The Ducks should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this game from start to finish. They lead the country in yards per rush, while USC ranks just 78th in yards per rush allowed. Give me the Ducks in the first half!
Trend I Love: Oregon has covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
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