As the UFC returns to the Apex this Saturday, we could be in for some fireworks in the main and co-main events. Steve Garcia vs Davis Onama headlines the card, and I believe we will see about half the fights end by finish! This UFC card offers several matchups worth diving into for DFS purposes.
I have found angles in the Gorimbo/Wells, Cortes-Acosta/Delija, Rowe/Ko, and Johnson/Dumas fights. If you haven’t yet, head over to BettorsInsider to read my best picks and predictions for the main three fights on this card! Let’s dive into this week’s slips!
Gorimbo comes into this matchup as a favorite, and his odds have slightly shifted even more in his favor as the week has progressed. In four of Gorimbo’s six UFC fights, he has secured two or more takedowns. His previous fight he lost in 52 seconds, and his fight against Pete Rodriguez lasted 32 minutes, neither going long enough to give him a chance.
Now we get Gorimbo, who likes to get his opponents to the ground, faces Jeremiah Wells, who also can take his opponents down when needed. Wells has at least one takedown in three straight and four of his last five fights, hitting three and six in two of those. As I am siding with Gorimbo, he has the height and reach advantage, and he can use his striking to set up multiple takedowns over three rounds.
In this heavyweight fight, we do have two guys who could end this quickly with a KO shot. But Waldo does have a tough chin, the UFC experience, and the movement to keep at range when necessary. I do think this fight will go into the 2nd and possibly the 3rd, heading to the scorecards.
Waldo knows Delija is dangerous, and I believe Waldo’s best path is to keep a distance and bank points over time. If Delija cannot secure an early finish, I do think Waldo’s cardio and UFC experience will help him drag this thing into a striking match where he will win. Waldo has covered this line in three of his last four fights, landing on 45 and 49 two other times. Before that, he had a run of 73, 147, and 82.
Phil Rowe is coming off a finish over Ange Loosa, and we know who Rowe is at this point. Rowe wins by knockout, or he loses a decision. We also know there are takedowns in every Rowe fight; he is either getting taken down or he is the aggressor.
Seok Hyeon Ko is nicknamed “The Korean Tyson,” but in his two fights under the Dana White promotion, he has two decision wins. In his DWCS matchup he found two takedowns, and in his UFC debut he took Oban Elliot down six times! If Rowe finds a way to win this one, which I don’t lean towards, I think he gets his first decision win. I like this one to go to a decision.
Donte Johnson makes his debut for the UFC coming off a TKO victory over Darion Abbey in the DWCS season 9. As we don’t have a ton of statistical data to look at, we do on the Dumas side. Now I know a lot will be taking Johnson by TKO or finish here, and while I agree, I believe Dumas will make him work just a little bit for a finish.
The UFC is looking to build Johnson and they are giving him a winnable fight here. That said Dumas does have UFC experience and has allowed his previous opponents to land 34, 26, 41, and 33. Best case scenario for us is Dumas drags this into the 2nd or 3rd allowing Johnson to put up more volume.
I just don’t see a finish in the Gorimbo/Wells fight, and if we do, I think it comes in round three when one of these guys gasses out from the back and forth takedown attempts. While on paper this might not look sexy as both fighters average 8.5 fight time, when we have two guys who can end a fight early, sometimes they take a minute to get going.
I like Gorimbo here to win by a decision, but if Gorimbo does not win, I do believe he loses a close decision. Wells has not looked that good in his last three fights.
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