UFC 321 Best Bets Guide: Aspinall vs. Gane in Abu Dhabi

After Brendan Allen pulled off the upset over RDR last week, can we see a repeat in the title match? UFC 321 heads to Abu Dhabi this weekend with a stacked pay-per-view lineup featuring two title bouts and plenty of action lined up all night!

The main event sees Tom Aspinall defend his heavyweight belt against former interim champion Ciryl Gane. This will be Gane’s 4th title fight under the promotion.

The co-main event features a rematch between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the women’s strawweight championship, while top heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida square off in a potential No. 1 contender fight. Let’s break down each of these fights and give my best bets!

Main Event: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight Title)

Tom Aspinall’s rise to the top has been nothing short of spectacular and quick. Aspinall has made it out of the 2nd round just 1 time in his 9 UFC fights. All of his wins inside the UFC have come by stoppage. His combination of elite hand speed, boxing, and power has overwhelmed most competitors to this point.

Ciryl Gane could bring a level of resistance Aspinall has not seen yet. Though I have never been high on Gane, one thing on his record is impressive: he took Francis Nganou to a decision over 5 rounds, and prior to that fight, Nganou knocked out almost every opponent.

Aspinall has been off since July 27, 2024, well over a year, chasing down John Jones, and perhaps wasting some precious time in his prime. He is usually a fast starter but with the lay-off, and level of competition, this fight could see the 2nd and even later rounds.

Gane’s footwork and defensive awareness are among the best in the division. He did not look good against Jon Jones, but I expect him to have learned something from that fight.

This matchup comes down to whether Gane can stay upright and keep the fight at range, and how long he can last. Gane has never been knocked out but I do believe Aspinall wants to make a statement and there is no better statement than a ground and pound TKO.

Best Bet: Tom Aspinall win Round 1 or 2 (-135, DraftKings)

Co-Main Event: Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern (Women’s Strawweight Title)

The co-main event offers a rematch between two of the most skilled grapplers in the women’s division. Now, with the title up for grabs, Virna Jandiroba (22–3) and Mackenzie Dern (15–5) meet for the vacant strawweight championship. Both women are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts with elite submission pedigrees, a both are a combined 22-0 to the submission.

Jandiroba comes into this bout on a five-fight winning streak, including recent dominant wins where she controlled over 60% of grappling exchanges. She averages nearly 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and often maintains top control for long stretches. Her durability and positional awareness make her extremely hard to finish.

Dern, on the other hand, remains one of the most dangerous submission specialists in the UFC. Over half her victories have come by tap out, and she’s significantly improved her striking and cardio over her last few fights. She enters UFC 321 on a two-fight win streak and looks sharper and more composed than in previous years.

This fight should feature plenty of scrambles and grappling exchanges, but with both women being so technically sound on the mat, it’s difficult to envision either landing a submission. Expect a tactical battle that goes all five rounds.

Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance (–106, FanDuel) & Mackenzie Dern ML (-138, Bet365)

Featured Bout: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida

With the heavyweight division featured heavily on this card, a clash between Alexander Volkov (38–11) and Jailton Almeida (22–3) could determine the next contender for the Aspinall–Gane winner.

Volkov is looking to bounce back off a tough split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane in which many, including myself, thought he won that match. Prior to that fight he had reeled off four straight wins, three by finish. Volkov is the more experienced fighter, the more active striker, he has the better takedown defense at 72% and I believe he has the better cardio and endurance.

Almeida is one of the UFC’s fastest-rising fighters and has impressed in the UFC with an 8-1 record. He has a very high fight IQ, and a very good grappling and top game. and one of the most dominant grapplers in the division. He averages 6.4 takedowns with over 2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Volkov’s size, takedown defense, and striking should make the first round competitive. Both fighters are durable, and Volkov’s experience should keep him out of early trouble, possibly giving him a chance to steal this as a dog!

Best Bets: Over 1.5 Rounds (–120, DraftKings) & Volkov Double Chance KO/Decision (+200, Bovada)