Tulane vs Ole Miss Prediction — Will the Rebels Roll Again or Can Tulane Flip the Script?

The 2025 CFP gets underway with a familiar matchup. Ole Miss, the #6 seed sitting at 11-1, hosts #11 seed Tulane, who is at 11-2, in Oxford on Saturday at 2:30 PM EST. The two teams already squared off once this season, and it wasn’t even close — Ole Miss cruised to a dominant 45-10 win. Sure, that blowout was 3 months ago, but since then, Lane Kiffin bolted for LSU, Pete Golding took over as interim head coach, and Tulane hasn’t lost a game. Are we up for a different result? This one’s definitely got a different vibe.

Game Details, Odds, and What’s Changed

The game kicks off on TNT from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. Ole Miss is a big favorite — again — laying 17.5 points. The total is set at 56.5, and on the moneyline, Ole Miss sits at -850, while Tulane is +575.

Back in September, to nobody’s surprise, Ole Miss simply dismantled Tulane. The Rebels piled up an insane 548 total yards, held the Green Wave to just 282, and were up big before halftime. That game was over early as it was a total blowout. If you had bets in, you could’ve cashed early and been pretty happy. Tulane looked completely outclassed on both sides of the ball.

However, it’s worth noting that things have changed since then. Ole Miss wrapped the season with a dominant win over Mississippi State, and even without Kiffin, the team didn’t look overly distracted. They apparently had their eye on the prize the entire time. Tulane, meanwhile, ripped off 5 straight wins and won the American Conference. They’ve got confidence, a QB who can make plays with his legs, and maybe a chip on their shoulder after their early-season blowout.

But rematches aren’t just about revenge; instead, they’re about adjustments, and Tulane will need to make a lot of them.

Breaking Down the Matchup

Despite the skewed odds, this game is loaded with skill and talent and will be an exciting matchup.

Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has been nothing short of efficient and explosive all season. He’s thrown for 3,016 yards, 18 TDs, and just 3 picks, completing 65.5% of his passes. He’s also dangerous on the move, capable of extending plays or picking up 1st downs with his legs.

Sophomore RB Kewan Lacy is one of the best in the country as he’s rushed for 1,279 yards and 20 touchdowns on 258 carries. He sets the tone for an offense that’s 3rd in the nation in total yards and top 10 in scoring. The Rebels also boast tons of depth at wideout with Harrison Wallace III, Deuce Alexander, Cayden Lee, and others making it tough for any defense to keep up.

Tulane is holding its own and will rely on junior QB Jake Retzlaff, who’s thrown for 2,862 yards and run for 610 more on top of that. He’s scored 30 total TDs and is easily Tulane’s most important player. His mobility is extremely important because the Green Wave offensive line isn’t dominant, but fortunately for Tulane, Retzlaff can make things happen when plays break down, and that gives them a chance to hang around.

But the issue in this matchup is on the defensive side for Tulane. They give up 255 passing yards per game, ranking 124th nationally. That’s definitely not a recipe for success against an Ole Miss team that averages 300+ yards through the air each game. The Green Wave does have a solid run defense, where they’re allowing just 120 YPG, but they’ve had issues in coverage all season. If Chambliss gets going early, it could get ugly fast again, and there won’t be enough time on the clock to catch back up.

One thing Tulane does surprisingly well is force turnovers. They’ve picked off 15 passes this year and have a +10 turnover margin, one of the best in the nation. That’s their path to a potential upset, but it won’t be easy. They need to win the turnover battle, maybe by a wide margin, and hope Retzlaff can control the clock the rest of the time.

Penalties are another problem they’ll need to clean up. Tulane is near the bottom of the country in penalty yards per game. Against a team like Ole Miss, giving away free yards is the quickest way to lose a game. The Rebels don’t make many mistakes, and they’ll punish teams who do. Tulane will have to figure out a way to stay disciplined and not give gifts to the Rebels.

Even though Lane Kiffin is gone, Ole Miss looked sharp in the Egg Bowl. Golding has this team focused, and there’s undoubtedly motivation to prove they’re more than just their former coach, and this is still a loaded roster with a top-25 defense and one of the best offenses in the country.

Final Prediction and Best Pick

We have to hand it to them — Tulane has played much better since the first game. They’ve improved on both sides of the ball and should be undeniably more competitive. They’ve got nothing to lose and everything to gain, and Jon Sumrall has done a nice job keeping them locked in even while rumors swirl about his own coaching future.

But let’s be honest — Ole Miss is just a better football team, and even the bookmakers know that with a 17.5 point spread. They’ve got the edge at quarterback, running back, receiver, and on both lines of scrimmage. Chambliss is playing at an extremely high level, Lacy is an absolute nightmare to bring down, and the defense is fast, aggressive, and disciplined. It’s a team that’s built to compete with the top 4, and a team that squeaked into the College Football Playoffs because of a conference win should be no match.

Tulane might hang around for a quarter or two. Retzlaff might break off a few runs and extend drives, and that’ll be exciting, but eventually, the talent gap is going to show up again. Tulane simply doesn’t have the secondary to contain Chambliss and this wideout group. They didn’t last time, and there’s no reason to believe it’ll be that different this time.

Ole Miss is 7-5 ATS and covered easily in the 1st meeting of the season, and even with the coaching change, they’ve been steady. They’re at home again. They’ve got more firepower. And they’re on a mission to make it to the next round.

• Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 20
• Best Bet: Take Ole Miss -17.5

The Rebels are simply more explosive, more balanced, and playing at home with tons of CFP momentum. Tulane is solid, but they’re clearly outmatched here. If you’re feeling risky, the over on 56.5 is in play too because this feels like Ole Miss can hit 40-plus on their own.

This is the kind of game where talent and depth win out. The Green Wave have had a great season, and we can’t wait to see what they look like next year as well, but the Rebels are heading to the quarterfinals.