With a bittersweet note, the PGA Tour 2025 season comes to an end after this weekend, and what a season it has been! Per usual, the PGA Tour season wraps up at East Lake with the TOUR Championship, where the top 30 players battle it out for one of the most prestigious titles in golf. Unlike the past few years, the tournament no longer uses the starting-stroke format, so everyone begins at even par. This change brings back a true four-day test where the lowest score wins, giving the field a fairer chance to challenge the world’s best.
Speaking of the world’s best, Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite after a season that has been nothing short of dominant. Looking to follow up his win here from last season, he has racked up 5 victories, including the BMW Championship just last week, and consistently leads the field in scoring average and strokes gained tee-to-green. Even without a head start, Scheffler will be the man to beat at East Lake.
Of course, challengers are ready to test him. Ludvig Aberg has been one of the sharpest iron players and players off the tee over the last few months, and his ability to find fairways has allowed him to consistently put himself in position to score. Viktor Hovland is another name to watch after showing flashes of his elite form with a win earlier in the season, a strong run at the BMW, and he has won this event before. Of course, the biggest challenger to Scottie this weekend could be Rory McIlroy, who has not only won this event but has multiple top 10 finishes here.
East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, is a par-70 layout measuring just over 7,400 yards. While not the longest course on tour, it demands accuracy and consistency from start to finish. This is not an easy golf course by any stretch, and with the changes to the scoring system, they renovated this course to make it more challenging. They added more pin locations on the green complexes and have grown the rough about an inch thicker.
Fairways are tree-lined and narrow, and hitting them is critical because the rough can make approach shots nearly impossible to control. Players who keep the ball in play will find scoring chances, while those who spray it off the tee will struggle to recover. Driving Accuracy ranks 4th on tour in stats correlating to success, while stats like bogey avoidance, proximity to hole, and green in regulation percentage all rank top 10 on tour in secondary stats correlating to success.
The best tee-to-green players will shine the brightest this weekend, and the ones who can stay more accurate than the rest will surely be in line for a top finish. East Lake rewards players who put themselves in the correct position off the tee, which could be the difference between a birdie and a par opportunity.
Once again, the best in the world is in line to win this event and take another tour title. Scheffler has been remarkably consistent this season as he ranks #1 in strokes gained total, tee-to-green, off-the-tee, and approach to the green.
For the season, Scheffler ranks 35th in fairway hit percentage and has had success here. Last season in round 1, Scheffler hit 10 fairways; they are giving us a cushion of 1.5 here. His ability to shape shots both ways gives him an edge on East Lake’s demanding fairways.
Henley has been one of the most accurate drivers on tour all season long, ranking 13th in fairway hit percentage. Henley ranks 11th in driving accuracy on tour and has had success at East Lake. Last season, Henley finished T4 while hitting 11 fairways in round 1.
Henley’s ability to control his ball off the tee gives him an edge and is why he consistently ranks as one of the top players on tour. East Lake rewards his style of play, as his accuracy off the tee should help avoid the thick rough and find 10 fairways.
Few players have been as dominant as Scheffler this season, and it is difficult to envision him falling outside the top two in a 30-man field. We have seen plenty of events where Scheffler is struggling to find it off the tee but can still score and climb the leaderboard with the rest of his game.
At East Lake, where accuracy and patience are vital, his skillset is almost tailor-made for success. He is by far the best in this field and the best current form. I am not overthinking this here and riding the best to finish this season on the highest note.
Harry Hall may not have the name recognition of the game’s biggest stars, but his 2025 campaign has been quietly strong. We have been one of his biggest fans since breaking onto the scene last year and he has rewarded our pockets nicely.
He has finished inside the top 30 in eleven straight events! Coming off a 6th-place finish at the BMW last week, I feel very confident running the best putter on tour out once more. Hall ranks 6th in strokes gained total, 2nd in strokes gained putting, 6th in scrambling, 25th in scrambling from rough, and 1st in putting average and putts per round. He ranks near the top in birdie average and is tough to beat once they reach the greens.
Hovland has a ton of success here, and I have no reason to get off him now. With a T12, 1, T15, T5, and T20 in his last 5 starts here, this is an auto-play.
He ranks 18th in strokes gained total, 2nd in approach to green, 33rd in total driving, 12th in proximity, and 19th in birdie average. Not only is he in great form following his T7 last week, but the history here, and his overall season are setting him up for a possible top 5 once again.
Hall’s consistent scoring and ability to generate birdie chances give him an edge in this matchup. I love the odds here, and I get a chance to take the better putter, who has been in better form over the past few months.
Hall has been one of the most reliable players at converting opportunities this year, while also making more cuts than almost anyone on tour. Rose, while experienced and a past champion, has not shown the same level of form in recent starts and remains somewhat inconsistent. I trust Hall over the next four days to continue his hot run.
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