Top NFL Player Props for Saturday, January 6

The bittersweet time of year when the regular season winds to a close is masked by the excitement of the playoffs looming in a week. Five teams in each conference have yet to be eliminated or clinched berths in the postseason and have varying degrees of chances to claim a spot in Week 18. Three teams in limbo will be in action on Saturday, while the fourth has nothing to gain.

Baltimore will host Pittsburgh after clinching the #1 seed in the AFC and the North division crown with a massive win over Miami in Week 17. QB Lamar Jackson is now the significant odds-on favorite to win his second MVP as well. This is the Ravens’ first division title since 2019 when they also claimed the top spot in the conference. After three turnovers from Lamar Jackson in the Divisional round, they disappointingly fell to the Titans in that go-around.

Pittsburgh is the team that refuses to go away. They extended their streak of .500 or better seasons with a win over Seattle last week and can still sneak into the postseason if one of a few scenarios plays out this weekend. The most straightforward outcomes would be beating the Ravens while the Bills lose to the Dolphins or the Jaguars lose or tie against the Titans. Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 on the road, with Baltimore expected to rest their starters.

Houston will face Indianapolis in a familiar and significant matchup for Saturday’s second contest. The Texans are 1.5-point favorites away from home, and the outcome of this game can be summed up easily: the winner takes all. The victor of this game will clinch at least a Wild Card berth, and with a Jaguars loss, they would also take the AFC South division title. The Colts won 31-20 in Houston earlier this season in a game where Gardner Minshew replaced an injured Anthony Richardson.

For Saturday’s doubleheader, we’ve prepared a prop card with some best bets for the opening games of this season’s final week.

Tyler Huntley UNDER 171.5 Passing Yards (-114 @ FanDuel)

• On Wednesday, Huntley was named the starter in place of Jackson by coach John Harbaugh. This will be his tenth start for the team in a four-year career, which includes a postseason loss to Cincinnati last season.
• In five appearances where he started or played the majority of snaps at QB in 2022, Huntley averaged 22.4 pass attempts and 131.6 yards per game.
• Only three teams have run the ball more times than they threw this season. Of those organizations, Baltimore has the highest rate of run plays compared to pass attempts in the league at 52.5%. We expect that disparity to be more skewed this weekend.
• In two career starts against the Steelers, Huntley has not passed for more than 145 yards and has a TD:INT ratio of 1:3 in a pair of three-point losses.

Josh Downs UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ FanDuel)

• After a promising September and October for the rookie for North Carolina, his opportunities and performances have dropped during the second half.
  • First eight games: 40 catches, 473 yards, 2 TDs
  • Last eight games: 25 catches, 250 yards, 0 TDs
• Downs was targeted three times or fewer in three of the team’s last four games.
• Indianapolis has given Jonathan Taylor 39 carries in two weeks since his return and attempted more runs than passes during a win over Las Vegas in Week 17.