Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for September 23

The Detroit Tigers head to Progressive Field tonight to open one of the biggest series of their season — a 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians. This one isn’t just another regular-season matchup — it’s a late-season showdown with major playoff implications. Detroit, despite coming into the 2025 season smoking hot, enters clinging to a narrow 1-game lead in the AL Central, but they’re riding a brutal 6-game losing streak. Cleveland, meanwhile, has won 4 of their last 5 and just swept these same Tigers a week ago. This series could decide the division and playoff positioning.

Game Details and Probable Starters

Tarik Skubal, with his 13-5 record, 2.23 ERA, and 233 Ks, gets the start for the Tigers. He’s been dominant most of the season, ranking 2nd in the league in ERA and WHIP with a 0.88, and leads the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio. But his recent form has been shaky by his standards. Over his last 2 starts, including a 6-inning loss to Cleveland, he’s allowed 13 hits and 5 earned runs. That’s not how he typically rolls.

The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams, who has an 11-5 record, 3.06 ERA, and 161 K, who has been locked in this September. He’s allowed just 3 earned runs over 18 innings this month and held the Tigers scoreless over 5 innings in a 4-0 win just last week. Williams hasn’t given up a single HR in his last 3 starts and is showing sharp command, walking only 2 batters in that span.

Odds and Betting Lines

As of now, the Detroit Tigers are slight road favorites with a moneyline of -157. The Cleveland Guardians are coming in as the underdogs and sit at +129. The run line is Detroit -1.5 (+118) and Cleveland +1.5 (-144). The over/under is set at 6.5 runs, with the over at -112 and the under at -109.

Bookmakers are leaning heavily on Skubal’s season-long dominance, but the recent trends during his starts paint a more complicated picture. However, if he finds his stuff, he’s dominant.

Momentum, Matchups, and What Matters

It’s hard to ignore how these teams are trending. Detroit is spiraling at the worst time of the year. They’ve lost 6 in a row, including getting swept by Cleveland at home. They were outscored 11-1 in that series and followed it up by getting swept by Atlanta. The bats have gone cold at the worst time possible, and outside of Riley Greene with his 34 HRs and 109 RBIs and Gleyber Torres, this lineup looks overmatched.

Without a doubt, Skubal is still the ace. His September ERA of 2.76 is solid, and he’s gone 6+ innings in 2 of 3 starts. But he hasn’t been as sharp, and his last outing against Cleveland showed cracks as he gave up 7 hits and 2 earned runs. That was enough to take the L, especially when the Tigers scored just one run.

Cleveland, meanwhile, looks alive and thriving. They’ve won 6 of their last 7, including a series win in Minnesota where they outscored the Twins 26-4. José Ramírez, who has a .282 AVG, 30 HRs, and 81 RBIs, continues to carry the offense, and the Guardians’ pitching staff — ranked 4th in team ERA with a 3.71 — has been lights out.

Gavin Williams has been a big part of that equation. In September alone, he’s rocking a 1.50 ERA, 18 Ks, and only 2 walks over 18 innings. He handled the Tigers easily last time out and looks more comfortable than Skubal right now. That’s a massive edge, especially considering Detroit’s struggles to hit right-handers lately.

Also worth noting is that Progressive Field has been a low-scoring park this year, averaging just 7.9 runs per game. The under has hit in 34 of 75 games here, with 4 pushes. And with two top-flight starters, that total of 6.5 seems about right.

Head-to-Head and Season Context

Detroit holds a slim 6-4 lead in the season series, and on top of that, Cleveland has all the recent wins. The Tigers swept the Guardians back in July, but Cleveland returned the favor last week. Now both clubs are 50-45 in night games, and only a game separates them in the standings. Detroit is 85-71, Cleveland is 84-72.

That means this game could be the turning point, and all eyes are on these 2 clubs tonight. With 5 games left, a Guardians win would tie the division and give them the psychological edge heading into the final stretch of the season.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This game feels like a trap for Detroit backers, but we don’t see it like that. Yes, Skubal has the better season numbers, and Cleveland is hotter at home and already showed they can handle him. And despite the Tigers looking lost at the plate, we think having the day off yesterday to replenish their bullpen and knowing what’s on the line, they’re coming out hungry, and that just cannot be underestimated.

• Tigers vs Guardians Prediction: Guardians 2, Tigers 3
• Best Bet: Detroit Tigers on the Moneyline at -157

The Guardians look like they’re playing better baseball right now, and by most metrics they are, but we also know what’s really behind these 2 teams and heading into the home stretch the gloves are coming off. Typically we’d side with the trend, but we all know how these teams are when they’re at their best and that’s what we’ll see tonight. The bookmakers understand this, and that’s why we’re going to go with the Tigers on the moneyline. It’ll be a close game no matter what, so we’re going to keep our distance from the run line on this one.

With Skubal and Williams on the bump, the under 6.5 at -109 looks mighty enticing, especially with a ballpark that suppresses scoring.