Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels wrap up their 4-game set tonight in Anaheim, with the Angels holding a 2-1 series lead. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET, and there’s still plenty on the line despite both teams being below .500. This game isn’t just about pride as both clubs sit near each other in the American League West standings, and with the trade deadline looming, every game matters one way or another.

Bookmakers have Texas as a slight favorite at -120 on the moneyline, with Los Angeles coming in at even money. The total is set at 9.5 runs, which feels about right considering the starters taking the mound.

Starting Pitching Matchup and Recent Trends

The Rangers are sending LHP Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin has had his share of ups and downs throughout his career, but this season he’s taking a step in the right direction. He’s 5-7 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, along with 68 strikeouts. None of these numbers really scream dominance, but he’s done a decent job keeping his team in games, especially over the last month. He’s not the same pitcher who got lit up in 2021 or 2022 back in Washington. He’s pitching to contact more effectively and has kept the ball in the park better than expected. Sometimes, you just have to let the fielders do their job and that’s what he’s doing.

The Angels counter with RHP Jack Kochanowicz, who has had a rough season so far. The right-hander enters with a 3-8 record and a 5.42 ERA, along with a 1.55 WHIP. Those numbers don’t lie as he’s been hittable and very inconsistent. Command has been an issue, and he hasn’t been able to work deep into games — he averages between 3-5 innings of work per outing before getting pulled. Opponents are hitting him hard, and that’s a tough recipe against a Texas lineup that is starting to heat up.

The Rangers are just 4-6 in their last 10, but they’ve outscored opponents by 15 runs during that stretch. That tells us that they’ve been playing better than their record indicates. Run differential is a better predictor than win-loss in small sample sizes, and Texas is due for a few more wins if they keep putting up those kinds of numbers — especially with who they’re up against.

On the other side of the diamond, the Angels are also 4-6 in their last 10 games but have been outscored by 11 runs during that time. Their bullpen has let them down late in games, and the offense hasn’t been able to bail them out. Even with a couple of solid bats in the lineup, there’s just not enough depth in this lineup to mask their pitching issues and that seems to be their biggest problem.

Key Players and Offensive Matchups

Offensively, Texas is getting big-time production from Corey Seager, who is 13-for-38 over his last 10 games with 4 doubles, 4 HRs, and 8 RBIs. He’s seeing the ball well, staying within himself, and doing damage on pitches in the zone. This is the version of Seager that can carry an offense for stretches and it seems to be working. Alongside him is Marcus Semien, who has chipped in 11 doubles, 10 homers, and 47 RBIs on the year. 

The Angels have seen Taylor Ward do his part with 20 yard bombs, 2 triples, and 20 doubles, giving them some much-needed pop to the struggling lineup. Luis Rengifo has chipped in lately as well, going 11-for-41 with a couple of XBH over the past 10 games. Still, outside of those 2, the Angels are relying on young and unproven bats. That’s been a problem when trying to string together big rallies, especially against teams that can score in droves like Texas.

Another stat that pops out is how poor the Rangers are when giving up HRs. They’re just 15-35 in games when allowing at least one long ball. The Angels have some power, so if Ward or Rengifo can leave the yard early, that could swing the momentum and Texas could find themselves trying to keep up. However, Anaheim isn’t exactly a launching pad for going yard, and Corbin has done a better job of limiting those blowups recently.

Looking at the overall records, the Rangers are 45-48 and sit in 4th place in the AL West while the Angels are just ahead of them at 45-47, holding 3rd place. The season series favors the Angels 2-1 so far and they’ll look to cap off the series win to take it 3-1, but we think that’s a stretch given their current form.

It’s worth noting that the Rangers have shown they can bounce back. They’ve won 4 of the last 6 against the Angels, and their offense is starting to show signs of life, against a struggling RHP, this feels like the Ranger’s game to win to even out the series.

Prediction and Best Bet

This comes down to which team you trust more right now. Sure, the Angels have home-field, taken 2 of the games in this series, and have a slight edge in the standings, but they haven’t been sharp. Their pitching continues to be unreliable, and their bullpen hasn’t held up too well under pressure. Meanwhile, Texas is finally starting to hit, and they have the better starter on the mound.

Patrick Corbin won’t dominate, and we get that, but he’s more likely to give you 5 solid innings than Jack Kochanowicz, who has been knocked around more often than not. The Rangers’ offense, led by Seager and Semien, should be able to jump on Kochanowicz early and play from ahead which will play well to their advantage.

• Rangers vs Angels Prediction: Rangers 6, Angels 4
• Best Bet: Texas Rangers at -120

The moneyline price at -120 isn’t a huge value, but it’s justified given the edge in pitching and recent performance by the Rangers. The Angels at +100 might look tempting to some, but the inconsistency from their SP and the recent struggles from the pen push us away from backing them here.

We expect some early runs from Texas and a bounce-back game from a club looking to stay relevant in the AL West. The total might flirt with going over, but the smarter play for tonight’s game is the side.

It’s the better pitcher, the hotter hitters, and a team that’s due for a correction in the win column.