Stars vs Oilers Prediction — Will Dallas Outclass Edmonton Again?

The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers will meet for just the 2nd time this season tonight in Edmonton. The Stars took the first matchup in a shootout and are coming into this game with plenty of momentum, while the Oilers are trying to build off a big win over one of their toughest foes, Florida. Both teams are loaded with loads of offensive talent, but only one is consistently backing it up with structure and results.

This is a battle between two teams with very different identities right now, despite what they started the season with. The Stars are disciplined, efficient, and getting timely goaltending. The Oilers are inconsistent, heavily reliant on their top scorers, and still looking for something resembling a goaltender in the net. With the Pacific Division getting tighter, this one matters a lot for Edmonton, but the real question is — can they actually slow down Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the NHL?

Game Info and Recent Form

The puck drops at 9:00 PM EST in Edmonton, where the Oilers are a solid 5-1-2 at home this year. They sit at 10-9-5 overall, which places them 5th in the Pacific, and finally showed signs of life with a 6-3 win over the Panthers. Jack Roslovic had a breakout game, scoring twice and helping Edmonton snap a brief 3-game skid.

Dallas, on the other hand, comes in red-hot. They’re 13-5-4 on the year and an amazing 7-1-3 on the road. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 and are 7-2-1 over their last 10. The Stars most recently fell in a shootout to Calgary, but before that, they had back-to-back wins over the Flyers and Canucks and a shutout demolition of Montreal, where they embarrassed them 7-0. The last time these two met earlier this month, it took a shootout to separate them, with Dallas escaping 4-3.

Odds and Line Movement

The Oilers are slight home favorites at -140, with the Stars listed around +120 on the moneyline. The total sits at 6, with the under slightly juiced. On the puck line, Edmonton is +170 to cover -1.5, while Dallas is -205 to keep it within one.

That pricing tells you bookmakers undoubtedly respect the Oilers’ home performance, where they’re 5-1-2, but it also leaves the door open for a Stars upset. Dallas has been an absolute road warrior this season, and they’ve already shown they can hang with and beat this Oilers squad. Another big factor playing into these odds is the lack of Rantanen for the Stars, but more on that in a moment. The bookmakers look to be on point with their numbers for tonight’s showdown.

What the Numbers Say

Dallas is scoring 3.18 GPG and giving up just 2.73 GA/G. They’ve allowed the 7th-fewest goals in the NHL. Offensively, they’re 9th in total goals and rank in the top 5 in power play percentage and shooting percentage. Jason Robertson leads the way with 13 goals and 28 points, and Miro Heiskanen is quietly producing from the blue line. One of the biggest pieces of this team will be missing, however. Mikko Rantanen will serve a single-game suspension tonight after his dirty hit on Matt Coronato, so there’s a glimmer of hope for the Oilers.

Goaltending has been nothing less than solid. Jake Oettinger owns a 9-4-2 record with a .902 SV% and 2.72 GAA. He’s not dominating, but he’s keeping games tight and not giving away goals.

Edmonton is averaging 3.08 GPG but allowing a concerning 3.54 GA/G. That’s the 6th-worst defensive mark in the league. The Oilers have given up 85 goals, 3rd-most in the NHL. Stuart Skinner has struggled with a .885 SV% and a 3.00 GAA, and though Calvin Pickard has been serviceable in limited action, the crease remains one of the biggest problems for this organization.

Offensively, it’s the usual suspects. Leon Draisaitl leads the team with 14 goals, and Connor McDavid leads in points with 33 and in assists with 23. They’ve scored a combined 60 points. But it’s definitely a top-heavy group as Edmonton doesn’t get enough secondary scoring, and when the power play isn’t clicking, they look ordinary.

Defensively, the Oilers are simply a mess. They’re 31st in goals allowed, and though their PK unit is decent at 82.3%, they’re taking too many penalties. Dallas, by contrast, has struggled on the PK at 75.7%, but they’re much better at limiting shots and high-danger chances. They also rank 3rd in total assists and are top-10 in goals scored despite not having the same level of star power up front. Simply put, they’re efficient, and everyone is chipping in.

Who Wins and Why

The Stars are the more balanced, better-structured team right now. They’re disciplined, efficient with their chances, and playing excellent hockey on the road. They’re giving up just 2.4 GPG over their last 10 while averaging nearly 4. That’s the type of stretch that shows a team isn’t just winning — they’re dominating. Sure, they’ll be without Rantanen for tonight’s game as he serves his suspension, but this team has depth. They’re going to miss him tonight, but you can bet others are waiting in the wings to step up.

The Oilers, meanwhile, are giving up nearly 4 goals a game in that same span and have a .500 record to show for it. Sure, they’ve got some of the most notable firepower in the league, and yes, they’re better at home, but until their goaltending tightens up and they start getting more out of their depth forwards, they’re going to keep losing games like this.

Dallas already beat Edmonton once this season and is coming in with the same formula they used last time to get the job done — structured play, steady scoring, and a goalie who doesn’t give the game away. That’s enough to take them at plus money here.

• Prediction: Stars 4, Oilers 3
• Best Bet: Stars on the moneyline at +120

The value is too strong for a team playing this well on the road against a leaky defense and almost nobody in the crease. Dallas is finding ways to win close games, and they do it with depth, so that makes us feel better about them not having Rantanen on the ice. On top of that, Edmonton hasn’t shown enough consistency to trust them as a favorite.

This one should be tight, but the better team finds a way. Back the Stars to come out on top again.