Stars vs. Golden Knights Expert Analysis, Prediction, and Prop Bets for Tonight’s Game

The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights face off tonight in a huge Western Conference matchup at T-Mobile Arena. With both teams coming in smoking hot and jockeying for playoff positioning, this game will undoubtedly be one of the more competitive games on the slate.

Vegas has home ice and a slight edge as -115 moneyline favorites by most oddsmakers, while the Stars sit almost even at -105.

Of course, the odds show this will be a close game, but we’re going to dive deeper into the numbers to see which team will come out on top.

Odds Analysis and Key Insights

The Golden Knights enter this matchup with a solid 31-15-4 record. They’re still fighting to get to the top of the Pacific Division standings as they’re just behind Edmonton. They’ve been undeniably strong at home, and while they’ve gone 5-5-0 in their last 10 games, they’re coming off a pretty impressive 4-1 win over Florida.

However, we’ve noticed that their offense has cooled slightly as of late. They’re averaging 1.4 fewer goals per game over their last 10 games compared to their season average. If they’re going to remain competitive against one of the best teams in the Central Division, they’ll need to find ways to get to the back of the net. 

Dallas, on the other hand, holds their own impressive 31-17-1 record and is 2nd in the Central Division just behind Winnipeg. The Stars are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games which includes a nice 2-0 win over St. Louis a couple of nights ago.

Defense is where the Stars have really stepped up as they’ve allowed only 2.45 goals per game this season. However, their scoring depth could be tested tonight with Roope Hintz and other key forwards listed as day-to-day.

Both teams have already faced off twice this season, splitting the series at one game a piece. Vegas took the most recent game a few nights ago with a tight 4-3 victory and looking to finish off the series tonight.

With the game total set at 6 goals, we think this game will be a pretty tight game.

Goaltending and Player Matchups

Goaltending will undoubtedly play the biggest role in this game.

Jake Oettinger has been an absolute rock for Dallas. He boasts a 24-11-1 record, a 2.28 goals-against average, and a .913 save percentage which are some of the best in the NHL.

He’s been particularly strong in the last few games, earning a shutout in his last start. Oettinger’s consistency in the crease gives the Stars a solid chance in low-scoring games where each team is fighting just to get shots on goal.

Vegas, of course, counters with Adin Hill. He holds a respectable 19-9-3 record with a 2.60 GAA and a .903 save percentage. While Hill has been steady for the most part this season, his recent performances haven’t quite matched Oettinger’s level, as he’s allowed 3+ goals in 4 of his last 6 starts.

On the offensive side, Vegas leans heavily on Jack Eichel, who leads the team with a solid 62 points consisting of 15 goals and 47 assists. Eichel is easily one of the best playmakers in the NHL. To top that off, he’s complemented by the emerging play of Pavel Dorofeyev, who’s netted 21 goals of his own this season.

Dallas, meanwhile, relies on Matt Duchene and his team-high 47 points to get the job done, but we’re afraid that without Hintz, they may lack the firepower to keep pace if the game turns into a shootout.

Prop Bets to Watch

We love betting on the game, but prop bets definitely add some extra excitement to the game. Here are a few of the best prop bets we’ve found heading into tonight.

• Jack Eichel Over 0.5 Assists (-135). Eichel has been a consistent playmaker for Vegas He’s recording at least 1 assist in each of his last 4 home games against Western Conference teams, and with Vegas relying on his offensive leadership, this is a strong pick.
• Miro Heiskanen Over 0.5 Assists (+135). Heiskanen has quietly been a big-time contributor for Dallas. He has logged an assist in each of the Stars’ last 4 games and we don’t think he slows down tonight. His ability to drive the offense from the blue line makes this a value play with some decent odds.
• Tomas Hertl Anytime Goalscorer (+210). Hertl has been a thorn in Vegas’ side and it’s easy to see why. He has scored in 5 of their last 6 meetings. Sure, they’ll put a lot of energy trying to contain him, but at +210, this bet provides great odds for a player with a proven track record in this matchup.

These props offer a mix of some solid value and high potential returns. Just all the more ways to engage with tonight’s game.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Stars have a slight defensive edge and there’s no denying that. Oettinger is just too dominant between the pipes. However, Vegas’ home-ice advantage and deeper offensive core is what we think tips the scales in their favor.

While Dallas has been excellent defensively, their injuries up front could limit their ability to keep up with the surging Golden Knights.

We expect the Golden Knights to win another one in a close contest, similar to their 4-3 win last week. Vegas’ ability to control puck possession and take advantage of Dallas’ depleted lineup will be the difference.

With that, we’re not so sure that either team will run away with it so we’re keeping it close with just a moneyline bet.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Golden Knights 3, Stars 2.
• Best Bet: Vegas moneyline (-115).

With a tight game expected, the under (6 goals) also looks like a strong bet as well. Given both teams’ recent trends and solid goaltending, this is a great bet to take for the game. However, backing Vegas at home is the safer bet in what could be a playoff-style chess match between two powerhouses.