Stars vs Ducks Prediction — Dallas Looks to Extend Anaheim’s Misery

The Anaheim Ducks will try to stop the bleeding tonight when they host the Dallas Stars in the national spotlight on TNT. Anaheim’s in a dismal free fall, riding a brutal 9-game losing streak, and things don’t get any easier against one of the best teams in the NHL — Dallas — who is fighting near the top of the Central Division.

The 2 teams have split their season series so far, but Dallas crushed Anaheim 8-3 in the most recent meeting back in mid-December. With Jason Robertson heating up and Anaheim’s defense struggling to keep the puck out of the zone, this one could tilt heavily toward the visitors.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This game is a late-night game at 10:00 PM EST in Anaheim. The Stars come in with a 27-10-9 record, where they’re 15-4-6 on the road, while the Ducks sit at an even 21-21-3 and 12-8-1 at home. Dallas has the clear upper hand on both ends of the ice, and the betting markets just reinforce that.

The Stars are -120 favorites on the moneyline, while the Ducks sit around even money by most bookmakers. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with a lean toward the over at -105.

Given the recent trends of these teams, we figured the split would be a little more than just 20 points on the moneyline.

Momentum, Scoring Depth, and Goaltending Tell the Story

This matchup isn’t totally about just talent. It’s about current form — and Anaheim has none of it. 

The Ducks have lost 9 straight games, giving up 4.2 GAA during that stretch while managing just 2.6 GF/G. Even non-hockey fans know that’s a recipe for disaster, especially against a Dallas team that can roll 3 solid lines and boasts one of the NHL’s most efficient scoring attacks. It’s already an uphill battle.

Jason Robertson is coming off a 2 -goal performance in their last meeting, and he’s racked up 5 goals and 7 assists in his last 10 games. Wyatt Johnston continues to do what he does with 25 goals and 26 helpers, and Mikko Rantanen is piling on with 62 points on the season, including 44 assists. Dallas ranks 2nd in goals, 2nd in assists, and 1st in shooting percentage at 13.5%. That’s not just volume; it’s efficiency. They’re clearly firing on all cylinders, and the only reason they’re not in 1st place in the Central Division is because of Colorado. Need we say more?

Anaheim, on the other hand, ranks 21st in shooting percentage and 24th on the power play. Sure, they’re putting up more shots per game with 30.6 compared to Dallas’ 25.3, but we all know that quantity isn’t helping when quality is missing.

Defensively, the gap grows wider.

Dallas allows just 2.76 GAA, 7th-best in the NHL, compared to Anaheim’s 3.73 GAA, which ranks dead last. The Ducks have given up a whopping 168 goals, the most in the league. Their PK sits at 77.2%, and they average 10.4 PIM per game, which is the 8th most. That’s a dreadful combination when you’re facing the league’s 2nd-best power play, which sits at 29.1%. What this means is that Anaheim can’t afford any mistakes, yet they commit plenty.

And the goaltending matchup doesn’t help the Ducks either.

Lukas Dostal is projected to start for Anaheim, and he’s got a .887 SV% and a 3.25 GAA, which are fairly rough numbers, especially behind a struggling defense. Compare that to Casey DeSmith, expected to take the crease for Dallas, who’s holding a .911 SV% with a 2.48 GAA.

Both teams have seen mixed results lately, but context still matters. The Stars have gone 3-3-4 in their last 10, not great, for sure, but they’ve beaten solid teams like the Capitals and Kings. The Ducks have a clean 1-8-1, including back-to-back 5-2 losses and a 7-4 drubbing from Minnesota. They’ve been outscored 42-26 over that 10-game stretch.

Prediction and Best Bet

Anaheim is flailing, and we’re sure they’ll pull it together at some point, but against Dallas, that’s a tall order. They’re giving up too many goals, getting little help from their goalies, and can’t seem to stay out of the penalty box. Meanwhile, Dallas has the edge in nearly every major statistical category — offense, defense, special teams, and goaltending — and it’s not even close. Add in the fact that the Stars are 13-1-4 when they take fewer penalties than their opponent, and this matchup becomes even clearer.

We think that Dallas should control this game. Their last meeting was an 8-3 blowout, and while it’s hard to expect that kind of scoreline again, Anaheim hasn’t shown any signs of turning things around.

• Prediction: Stars 5, Ducks 2
• Best Bet: Dallas Stars -1.5 at +200

We like the puckline with this one because +200 is too good to pass up with a matchup like this. The Ducks’ defense is leaking goals, and the Stars have the firepower to take advantage of their flaws. With Anaheim allowing 4+ GAA in their last 10 and Dallas clicking on the power play, the puck line is the strongest play here. The price at +200 delivers some serious value given the matchup.