Senators vs Canadiens Prediction — Atlantic Rivals Clash in Key Division Tilt

The Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens are clashing tonight in Quebec in what’s shaping up to be a hard-fought Atlantic Division battle on the ice. Both clubs are neck-and-neck in the standings, with just one point between them. The Canadiens took the first meeting in OT back in November and have been strong at home lately, but Ottawa has been somewhat stingy defensively in recent games.

Game Info and Team Form

The Canadiens are coming into the matchup at 13-8-3, riding a mixed stretch of form as they’re 4-5-1 in their last 10, but they’ve looked more explosive offensively, especially in their recent 7-2 rout over one of the hottest teams in the NHL — Colorado. At home, they’ve held their own and already have one win over Ottawa this season, which was a 4-3 OT result back on November 1.

Meanwhile, the Senators are 12-9-4 and just slightly behind in the division, but they’ve gone 5-4-1 over their last 10. The biggest problem they’re facing is consistency. Sometimes they’re smoking hot, others they’re as cold as ice. 

Montreal has been stronger offensively, where they’re sitting at 3.42 GPG compared to Ottawa’s 3.04 GPG, while the Senators have a slight edge defensively, allowing 3.36 GA/A compared to Montreal’s 3.54 GA/A.

In between the pipes, Linus Ullmark is projected to start for Ottawa, posting a .874 SV% and a 3.10 GAA. Sam Montembeault likely gets the nod for Montreal, with slightly weaker numbers with a .864 SV% and 3.49 GAA. Neither netminder is looking all that great, but Ullmark has been a bit steadier if you had to pick one.

Odds and Line Movement

This one is close as far as the bookmakers are concerned. Montreal is a slight home favorite at -108 on the moneyline, while Ottawa is at -112. The total is set at 6.5, leaning under at -130, with the over at +110. The bookmakers expect a tight game — essentially a pick’em — but the juice on the under tells us we could see a low-scoring grind.

The Habs are +1.5 on the puck line at -265, while the Senators are at -1.5 pay +215. That steep cost to back Montreal with a goal cushion says a lot about how uncertain this rematch is.

Stats Breakdown and Matchup Edge

Montreal holds a slim scoring edge as they’ve scored 82 goals, which puts them 8th in the league, compared to Ottawa’s 76, placing them 19th. Nick Suzuki leads the way with 28 points, including 21 helpers, while Cole Caufield leads the team with 14 goals — no surprise there. Lane Hutson, a rookie, has quietly chipped in with 16 assists, which only gives Montreal more depth than expected.

On the Ottawa side of the ice, Tim Stutzle has been their top playmaker with 23 points spanning 11 goals and 12 assists, while Shane Pinto has 12 goals and is coming off a productive stretch. Jake Sanderson is holding down their defense with 15 assists and has been reliable in their own zone.

Where things get the most interesting is on special teams. Montreal’s power play is clicking at a decent 23.5%, good for 6th in the league, while Ottawa sits at just 21.8%, which isn’t all that bad either. On the flip side, Ottawa’s PK unit ranks dead last at 69.9%, and that’s a big red flag going against a team with strong PP units like Montreal’s.

Montreal has also been drawing more penalties, as they have 277 PIMs compared to Ottawa’s 226 PIMs. The Senators are 7-2-0 when opponents rack up penalties, so Montreal’s discipline, or really lack of it, could shift momentum if they’re not careful.

Defensively, Ottawa’s allowed 84 goals to Montreal’s 85, but the Senators have been far better over the last 5 games, allowing just 2.8 GA/A. That includes wins over LA and San Jose, where they clamped down. In contrast, the Habs have allowed 3.9 GPG over their last 10, and while they lit up Colorado, they were torched by Washington at 8-4 just 2 weeks ago. That goes back to the inconsistencies we mentioned.

Prediction — Senators Win Tight Road Contest

This is a classic divisional coin flip, and when you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see why. However, Ottawa has been trending in the right direction defensively, while Montreal’s goaltending remains an issue. Ullmark isn’t a game-stealer, but he’s been more dependable than Montembeault, and that matters in a game likely to come down to a bounce or two that could determine who gets 2 points tonight.

Ottawa’s PK is a huge concern, but if they stay out of the box — and they’ve shown that they’re more disciplined than Montreal — that advantage is neutralized. With the Sens already pushing Montreal to OT once and coming off wins against strong teams, they’re the slightly sharper side here.

• Prediction: Senators 3, Canadiens 2
• Best Bet: Senators Moneyline at -112

At near-even odds, Ottawa has just a little more betting value. They’ve been stronger in recent matchups, especially in tighter, lower-scoring games, as we feel this one will be. Montreal has shown that they can explode offensively, but they’ve been inconsistent and leaky on the back end. This is a good spot to back the more balanced and slightly more disciplined team.