Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Monday Night Showdown

The Cincinnati Reds head to Wrigley Field for a big Monday night clash against their own division rival, the Chicago Cubs, with the first pitch set for 8:05 PM ET tonight. This is a pivotal NL Central matchup, even if the records don’t totally show that — the Cubs are chasing the Brewers at the top of the standings with only a couple of games behind, while the Reds are trying to stay relevant in the Wild Card race.

Cincinnati sends LHP Nick Lodolo to the bump to face Cubs RHP Michael Soroka in a game that features 2 teams headed in different directions lately.

Game Details and Starting Pitchers

Nick Lodolo has been everything the Reds could ask for this season – and some. He’s 8-6 with a decent 3.09 ERA, and his 1.05 WHIP over 128 innings of work is among the best in the division. He’s struck out 123 batters and allowed only 24 walks. That just underscores his excellent control. Over his last 4 starts, Lodolo has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each, keeping the Reds in every game he’s pitched. Just because the Reds aren’t looking as good as the Cubbies in the division, it’s not due to Lodolo.

Michael Soroka, meanwhile, has struggled in 2025. The right-hander is just 3-8 with a pretty bad 4.87 ERA across just over 81 innings. Opponents are batting a healthy clip off him, and while he’s struck out 87, he’s also given up 24 walks and 11 taters as well. He’s been particularly hittable at home, where his ERA is above 5.00, and the Cubs’ bullpen hasn’t helped him much either. This game could be the break the Reds need to get some momentum behind them.

Betting Odds and Lines

The Chicago Cubs are the home favorites with a moneyline of -143, while the Reds are +118 underdogs. The run line has the Cubs -1.5 at +152, and the Reds +1.5 at -187. The over/under is set at 8, with the over priced at -102 and the under at -119.

Given the pitching matchup and recent trends, there’s some seriously solid value in both the Reds and the over here. Before we get ahead of ourselves, we’ll dig deeper to see what’s happening with these teams.

Analysis and Why We’re Backing Cincinnati

Let’s be honest — Cincinnati hasn’t looked great lately, dropping 4 of their last 6 games, but context matters as well. They were competitive in those games, including a 12-11 extra-inning loss to Atlanta. And importantly, Lodolo has been doing his part to keep this team relevant. He’s won 3 of his last 4 starts and has struck out 5+ in each of his last 8 outings. Against a Chicago team that ranks 27th in strikeouts per game, Lodolo should have another solid night and put in a solid 7 innings of work.

Offensively, Elly De La Cruz continues to lead the way, as expected. He’s hitting .282 with 19 dingers and 72 RBIs, and his power-speed combo gives the Reds a dangerous weapon at the top of the order. Miguel Andujar has been quietly consistent, too, notching a hit in each of his last 18 night games vs. winning teams. That kind of production is crucial in a series like this when the Reds are trying to build momentum against a division rival.

For the Cubs, the story is mostly about offense. They lead the majors in runs scored with 579 and RBIs with 564. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have combined for 53 homers and 160 RBIs, and Nico Hoerner is batting .295 with a .341 OBP. The bats are undoubtedly there, but can they string together runs against Lodolo, who has been one of the best southpaws in the NL since the All-Star break?

The concern for Chicago really isn’t the lineup — it’s the pitching. Soroka has allowed 4+ earned runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, and the Cubs’ bullpen is walking a tightrope simply trying to close out games. They nearly blew both wins against the Orioles and recently allowed 10+ runs in 2 of 3 against Milwaukee.

Everyone knows that Wrigley is a hitter’s park at night, where they’re averaging 9.2 runs per game, and the Cubs have gone over the total in 6 straight games against NL Central opponents. The Reds, despite being just under .500 on the road, have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 night games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati has also led after 5 innings in 5 of the last 6 night games against the Cubs, which tells us they start strong — especially with a pitcher like Lodolo kicking things off.

Another key edge we think Cincinnati has going for it is defense and pitching efficiency. The Reds rank 6th in OBA and 7th in hits allowed, while the Cubs rank in the bottom 3rd in both categories. That tells us the Reds tend to do a better job of limiting baserunners and scoring threats, even when their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders.

Prediction and Final Score

This game feels like a spot where Cincinnati’s starting pitching can steal the spotlight and get them into a position for an upset.

Lodolo’s control, strikeout ability, and recent form give the Reds the edge early in the game. Chicago’s bats will always be a threat, but Soroka is just too unreliable to keep them in the game. On top of that, the bullpen hasn’t been able to lock games down late. 

• Reds vs Cubs Score Prediction: Reds 5, Cubs 4
• Best Bet: Reds +118 moneyline

Lodolo is unquestionably pitching better than his opponent, and the Reds have been good value underdogs in spots like this. The value on the Reds’ moneyline at plus money is too good to pass up, especially given how strong Lodolo has been against playoff-level competition. It might be a close game, but it feels like it’ll be the Reds’ game to lose in the later innings.