Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Boston Red Sox will put their red-hot 10-game winning streak on the line this afternoon when they head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs, who currently lead the NL Central and have one of the league’s best home records. With the first pitch set for 2:20 p.m. ET, this game is shaping up to be one of the most compelling matchups on the slate.

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

Boston is jumping off into the second half of the season with a 53-45 record, which is good for 3rd place in the AL East. While they’ve struggled a bit on the road this season, as shown by their 21-25 record, their current form makes them anything but a pushover. The Red Sox have won 10 games in a row, outscoring opponents 64-18 during that stretch. They’re playing with confidence and balance — getting production from top to bottom. But could the All-Star break be the bump that slows down their momentum?

Right-hander Lucas Giolito is getting the start for the Red Sox, and he is currently 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 72.1 innings. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they’re far from elite. He’s allowed just 8 home runs and walked 21 batters, showing good command and limiting big innings. His steady presence on the bump has been a huge factor in Boston’s recent surge.

For Chicago, Colin Rea gets the nod. He comes in at 7-3 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 92 innings. While Rea has been solid overall, he’s given up 16 dingers on the season and doesn’t miss many bats, as he has just 65 Ks. That could be a real problem against a Boston offense that’s been driving the ball all over the yard lately.

Betting Odds and Key Stats

The Cubs opened as -136 favorites on the moneyline, with the Red Sox listed at +111. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, with slight juice to the under at -116. The Red Sox are getting +1.5 on the run line at -188, while the Cubs are -1.5 at +153.

On paper, the Cubs have been a solid home team, sitting at 30-16, and they’re 57-39 overall. When they score 5+ runs, they’re almost unbeatable at 41-8. Boston, on the other hand, is 33-11 in games where they cross that same threshold, showing how both teams thrive when the bats are alive, which could make for an interesting matinee game.

Both clubs have identical .256 team batting averages, but the Cubs have been a little more explosive with the long ball, averaging 1.5 yard bombs per game compared to Boston’s 1.2. The Red Sox, however, are slightly more disciplined at the plate, striking out far less frequently and drawing more walks.

Recent form tells a different story. The Cubs have gone 6-4 in their last 10, batting just .246 with a 3.89 ERA. Boston, however, has been scorching it. Over their last 10, they’re hitting a whopping .299 AVG with a minuscule 1.90 ERA and have outscored opponents by 46 runs. They’ve been dominating in every facet of the game, and we’re not so sure they’re done rolling.

Prediction and Best Pick

While the Cubs have been strong all season and especially at home, they’re running into a buzzsaw in the Red Sox. Boston isn’t just winning — they’re simply dismantling teams. And they’re not doing it with luck or fluke home runs. Their offense is deep and balanced, and getting the job done from the entire team. They feature hitters like Ceddanne Rafaela sitting on a .271 AVG, Wilyer Abreu and his 18 HR and 52 RBI, and Trevor Story, who has 58 RBI, all of whom are producing in different ways.

Defensively and on the mound, Giolito has the edge over Rea. Giolito has allowed fewer walks and home runs in fewer innings and has been much better at limiting damage, even if batters are finding ways to get on base. Rea’s tendency to allow the long ball is a big concern for most, especially at a park like Wrigley Field, where the wind can turn routine fly balls into trouble.

And even though the Cubs have big bats like Seiya Suzuki and his 25 HR and 77 RBI, and Michael Busch with a .290 AVG and .550 SLG, Boston’s pitching staff is simply on a different level right now. They’re executing, keeping runners off base, and rarely giving opponents a chance to rally with big innings.

Boston’s bullpen has also been clutch during the streak. They’re holding leads and putting out fires, which is allowing their bats to maintain momentum. Chicago’s pen is decent, but hasn’t been nearly as reliable under pressure.

Add it all up, and the edge goes to the Red Sox. Yes, the Cubs are a strong home team, and yes, Rea has pitched well in spots, but Boston is the more complete team right now. They have momentum, a more dependable starter, and a deeper lineup playing with swagger. We don’t see them slowing down in Wrigley this afternoon.

• Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction: Red Sox 6, Cubs 4
• Best Bet: Red Sox on the moneyline at +111

There’s real value here backing the hotter team, even if the ASG might have tapped the brakes on their momentum a bit. The win streak isn’t a fluke, and with Giolito on the mound and the lineup clicking, Boston is in a great spot to keep it going. We love the odds, and we expect the Red Sox to make it 11 straight.