Rays vs Reds Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for July 25

The Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds are both just above .500 at 53-50, neck-and-neck in their respective divisions. But that’s about where the similarities end between these 2 clubs.

Tampa Bay is clawing to break out of a funk, especially on the road, while Cincinnati is starting to click at the right time and hoping to make up some ground in the NL Central. These 2 playoff hopefuls meet for the first time this season Friday night at Great American Ball Park in what feels like a must-win series for both, despite plenty of baseball ahead of them.

Game Details — Rays Limp In, Reds Riding Momentum

The Rays have lost 4 straight away from home and 7 of their last 10 overall. That’s a big concern, especially heading into a stadium that has quietly been tough on visiting teams all season. Cincinnati is 28-22 at home and has looked sharper recently, winning 6 of its last 10.

Tampa Bay will turn to Zack Littell, who is 8-7 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, who’s been steady all season. Littell doesn’t necessarily overpower hitters, but he pounds the strike zone, limits walks, and doesn’t beat himself. He’s allowed just 17 walks in 122.1 innings while striking out 83, which is a pretty solid ratio. His control gives the Rays a chance to hang around in any game, especially against lineups like the Reds’ that tend to feast on mistakes.

Cincinnati counters with Nick Martinez on the bump. He’s sitting at 8-9 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, but he’s been more of a mixed bag. He’s given up 15 homers in just 116 innings and struggles when falling behind in counts. He has 81 strikeouts against 27 walks but hasn’t shown the consistency Cincinnati would like from him in tight games, and tonight’s game could be pretty tight.

The Reds are fresh off back-to-back wins over the Nationals and have scored 21 runs over their last 3 games. Meanwhile, the Rays are coming off a wild 11-9 loss to the White Sox and have dropped 2 of 3 in that series, continuing their road skid.

Betting Odds and Matchup Metrics

The bookmakers have this game close. The Rays are slight favorites on the moneyline at -114, while the Reds come in at just -106. The run line has Tampa Bay -1.5 at +140 and Cincinnati +1.5 at -172. The over/under is set at 9.5, with the under slightly favored at -112, and the over at -108.

The total might feel a little high at first glance, but Great American Ball Park has averaged just 8.6 runs per game this season, and the Rays’ recent games against NL Central opponents have trended on the lower side of things. 13 of Tampa Bay’s last 14 matchups vs NL Central teams have gone under the total.

Taking a deeper look at team metrics, Tampa Bay holds an edge in most categories. The Rays rank 3rd in batting average with a .258 AVG, 9th in runs scored with 4.7/game, and 1st in stolen bases at 1.3/game. They’re also a top-10 team in OBA and ERA. Meanwhile, the Reds are middle-of-the-pack across the board as they’re sitting at 16th in batting average at .246, 20th in home runs with just 1.0/game, and 12th in runs at 4.6/game. Their ERA sits at 3.91, slightly behind the Rays’ 3.85.

The pitching matchup favors Littell, and his tendency to limit big innings could frustrate a Reds team that relies heavily on Elly De La Cruz to spark the offense and get things going. De La Cruz leads Cincinnati with 18 dingers, 65 RBI, and a .276 AVG. But the lineup behind him has been undeniably inconsistent.

One thing to watch out for is that Tampa Bay has won 8 straight road games against National League teams with winning records. That trend shouldn’t be ignored, especially against a Reds team that’s just finding its footing. 

Prediction and Final Pick

This game might look like a coin flip on paper, but one of the teams has to walk away with the win, and the edge goes to the Rays thanks to the pitching matchup and key trends.

Littell has been much more efficient and consistent than Martinez, and the Rays’ lineup — anchored by Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda — is simply more balanced and robust right now. Caminero, in particular, is heating up with 4 HRs and 10 RBI over his last 10 games, and he matches up well against Martinez’s fly ball tendencies. There’s a good chance that he goes yard yet again tonight.

Cincinnati’s recent wins are undoubtedly encouraging, but they came against weaker pitching staffs. Littell and the Rays aren’t likely to hand out free runs, so we expect Tampa Bay to keep things close early and then pull away late.

• Rays vs Reds Final Score Prediction: Rays 5, Reds 3
• Best Bet: Take the Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at -114

It’s a tight number, but they have the better starter, a more complete offense, and recent betting trends on their side. For a close game like this, we’d stay away from the run line despite the odds looking great for it.