Rams vs Seahawks Prediction — NFC Title Rubber Match With Super Bowl Stakes

It’s going down for the 3rd time this season as the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks square off yet again. Only this time, a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line for both teams. The regular-season series was split a game apiece, and the combined margin of victory over those 2 games? Just a single point. It doesn’t get closer than that. These powerhouses know each other inside and out, and Sunday night should be a war.

Game Info and Odds

The NFC Championship kicks off at 6:30 p.m. EST on Sunday at a loud and hostile Lumen Field in Seattle, with FOX having the broadcast. The Seahawks are slight 2.5-point favorites, while the total is sitting at 46.5. The moneyline has Seattle at -142, with the Rams at +120. Bettors have leaned toward Seattle all week, but the Rams have drawn a bit of sharp action whenever the spread touches 3.

Seattle is 13-5 ATS this season, while the Rams sit at 11-8. These 2 already gave us a pair of thrillers during the year, where LA took the first game 21-19 after Sam Darnold threw 4 picks, and Seattle stole the rematch in a 38-37 OT thriller after a miraculous comeback sparked by a late punt return.

Game Details, Matchups, and Team Dynamics

The Rams are coming in with back-to-back playoff wins, both of which required clutch performances in tight moments. That might sound like they’re not up for the challenge, but you have to recognize the resiliency and grit. They beat Carolina in the wild card with a last-minute TD and escaped Chicago in overtime last week. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 4,700+ yards this season with 46 touchdowns and just 8 picks. He’s the most experienced QB left in the playoffs and already has a Super Bowl ring on his shelf. His Week 16 outing in Seattle was nothing less than legendary — 457 yards on 59% passing — but he was held without a TD against Chicago. Which version shows up on Sunday could define the game and determine who heads to the big game.

Kyren Williams continues to be a spark in the run game. He has 1,252 yards on the ground and 10 TDs, and helped ice the Bears with 2 rushing TDs last week. Rookie receiver Puka Nacua is proving to be simply unguardable, racking up 1,715 yards and 10 TDs on 129 catches on the season. He gives Stafford a true WR1 to lean on, and with Cooper Kupp now involved as well, Seattle’s secondary will be tested harder than they have all season.

The Rams’ defense, however, has been the shakier side of the ball. They rank 17th in yards allowed, and they’ll need to get pressure without overcommitting. What that really means is that Byron Young’s status matters. He has 12 sacks this year but is managing a knee injury. If he’s even close to full strength, the Rams could attack a battered Seahawks offensive line.

That offensive line might be the biggest key to the entire game. Charles Cross, Seattle’s starting left tackle, hasn’t practiced all week, and both of his backups are also dealing with some lingering injuries. If Cross is out or even limited, the Seahawks are in real trouble against a Rams front that already beat them up once. The pass protection will be one of the biggest challenges, and that could force Seattle into a run-heavy script.

And that’s where Kenneth Walker III becomes critical. With Zach Charbonnet out for the year after last week’s ACL tear, the entire rushing load now falls on Walker. He responded with a monster performance last week, where he notched 116 yards and 3 TDs on 19 carries in a blowout of the 49ers. Walker is electric in space, but will need more touches than usual against a Rams defense that ranks 12th against the run.

Seattle’s strength all season has been defense, and it’s easy to see why. They lead the league in points allowed per game and rank 6th overall in total yards allowed. Linebacker Ernest Jones IV and defensive end Leonard Williams anchor a unit that makes very few mistakes. Jones has 126 tackles and 5 picks this season, including one in last week’s win. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine of the offense as he led the NFL in receiving yards and topped 100 catches for a 2nd straight year. He’s without a doubt Darnold’s go-to guy, especially on 3rd downs.

The wild card is still Sam Darnold because he’s playing through an oblique injury and was clearly protected last week once the game got out of hand. He hasn’t practiced fully all week and doesn’t quite seem 100 percent yet. He has struggled for the most part against Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, throwing just a single TD with 7 interceptions in nearly 3 full games over the past 2 years. He also took 11 sacks in that stretch. Darnold led a brilliant comeback in Week 16, but for most of that game, the Rams had his number.

This game could be one we remember for a long time. Seattle undoubtedly has the better defense. Los Angeles has the better QB. Both teams are banged up, but the Seahawks have more names on the injury report. And while Sean McVay has already won 10 playoff games in his career, Mike Macdonald is coaching in his first conference championship. McVay is 2-0 in these games and hasn’t lost to an NFC West team in the postseason.

Prediction and Best Bet

These teams are simply built differently. Seattle wants to run the ball, lean on defense, and limit Darnold’s exposure, and of course, that’s smart, given the offensive line injuries and Darnold’s history against LA. But when you’re that limited, your margin for error shrinks.

The Rams are the exact opposite. They’re explosive, can score in bunches, and Stafford is more than capable of winning a game late. With Dotson back on the O-line and Young potentially active on defense, LA might be the more complete team on Sunday.

Seattle has the home-field advantage, and they’re rested after cruising past the 49ers. But Darnold’s injury, the offensive line’s health, and the past performances against the Rams defense paint a concerning picture.

Los Angeles has already shown they can win close playoff games, and let’s not forget that McVay has outcoached plenty of good defenses before. If Stafford gets decent protection, he’ll find enough gaps in Seattle’s coverage to get it done.

• Final Score: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
• Best Bet: Rams +2.5

You’re getting points with the better QB and a team that’s already won 2 pressure-filled playoff games. The Seahawks may win if they control the pace and get a clean game from Darnold, but that’s a big ask with so many question marks, especially with their injury report. Take the points, and don’t be surprised if the Rams win outright.