Fresh off one of the best games of the 2024 season to date, the Los Angeles Rams are tasked with traveling north to San Francisco for an intra-division clash that could all but determine the fate of both teams. LA’s 44-42 win over Buffalo placed them just a game behind Seattle in the NFC West and Washington in the race for the final Wild Card berth, while San Francisco is 6-7 and two games adrift of those coveted positions during a trying year. On Thursday Night Football, the 49ers are favored by three at home, with a point total set at 49 for this all-important contest.
The Rams are 6-2 since their Week 6 bye, a well-timed break following a 1-4 start that included injuries to both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The running game has re-emerged over the last month, and Matthew Stafford has not thrown an interception since November 11 while racking up 10 touchdowns in that four-game span. The defense has been the concern for this Aaron Donald-less unit in 2024, giving up the second-most net yards per pass attempt and ranking 27th in opponent yards per play. The Rams have allowed 23 touchdown passes as well, tied for 7th-most in the NFL.
The 49ers might be the most injury-plagued team in the league this season and their record reflects that. Key players on both sides of the ball have missed extended periods, and many, like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Hargrave and Trent Williams, will remain out for this NFC West tussle. A 38-13 win against the Bears in Week 14 ended a three-game losing streak for Kyle Shanahan’s squad and a win tonight would give the Niners their first back-to-back wins in 2024.
With Miami and Detroit looming on the schedule, this game could either provide a tailwind to a late surge or virtually end their season with a loss. Both our TNF props last week in the Packers-Lions matchup were duds, and we’re looking to reclaim our momentum with some winners in San Francisco tonight.
Williams ranks second in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2024, ahead of Derrick Henry and trailing Saquon Barkley by 15 for the league lead. While his efficiency year-over-year has declined by a full yard per carry, coach Sean McVay has not shied away from giving Williams as many touches as the back can handle based on game script.
The third-year running back rumbled for 89 yards and two touchdowns on 24 totes during LA’s 27-24 victory over San Fran in September. We expect the depleted 49ers’ defense to struggle to contain the fully healthy trio of Williams, Nakua, and Kupp tonight to the benefit of over bettors here.
The Niners’ offense has been unable to consistently support production by multiple pass catchers this season. Even against a welcoming matchup with the Rams’ secondary, Brock Purdy could repeat what occurred against Chicago last Sunday, where George Kittle and Jauan Jennings accounted for 14 targets, and no other player garnered more than three.
On Purdy’s best day of the season, when facing Tampa Bay on November 10, Samuel saw as many targets as Ricky Pearsall and accumulated 62 yards. In the four games since, Samuel has 85 receiving yards combined. We predict this trend will continue tonight.
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