Raiders vs Broncos Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for TNF

The Las Vegas Raiders will take on the AFC West-leading Broncos in a Thursday Night Football matchup that looks heavily one-sided on paper and probably will be on the field, too, because it’s hard to even visualize this game going any other way. The Broncos have won 5 straight and are finally looking like a complete team, while the Raiders are trying to avoid their 3rd straight losing season.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Kickoff is set for tonight at 7:15 PM ET, and as always this season, streaming on Amazon Prime. The game will be played at Empower Field at Mile High, where the Broncos haven’t lost in over a year. They’re currently riding a 9-game home win streak, the longest active run in the NFL.

Denver opened as heavy 9.5-point favorites, and the spread has held steady with most sportsbooks listing them at -9.5 at -110. The Raiders are +9.5 at -110 underdogs, with a juicy +390 moneyline for brave bettors willing to back a major upset — after last week’s games, anything is possible. The Broncos’ moneyline sits at -520, signaling just how much faith bookmakers have in a Denver win. The over/under is 42.5 points, with slight juice on the under at -102, while the over is priced at -118.

The Broncos beat the Raiders twice last year, including a 29-19 win in Vegas, and they’ll look to continue their dominance on TNF.

Denver’s Defense Is Elite, and Vegas Has No Firepower

Denver’s defense isn’t just good — it’s statistically the best in the NFL, and it’s a big reason they’re riding so high. They’re allowing just 18.4 PPG, good for 4th in the league, but their real strength lies in pass defense and pressure. The Broncos have 40 sacks through 9 games, and they’re spreading it around as 14 different players have recorded at least one sack. That kind of depth has made them nearly impossible to develop a scheme against.

They also rank top-3 in total defense, giving up just 279.9 YPG, and they’ve held opponents under 20% on 3rd down in 5 of their 9 games, including limiting Houston to 3-of-17 (17.6%) last week.

On offense, Bo Nix continues to grow in his 2nd year. He’s completed 197 of 322 passes for 1,976 yards, tossing 17 TDs and just 6 picks. He’s getting help from a consistent ground game led by J.K. Dobbins, who has logged 60+ rushing yards in 8 games and sits at 695 rushing yards with 4 touchdowns. Even backup RJ Harvey has popped up lately as a dual threat, catching 5 balls for 51 yards and even a touchdown last week.

Courtland Sutton, Nix’s favorite target, has 566 yards and 4 TDs, while TE usage has improved thanks to Nix’s ability to spread the ball around.

Defensively, Denver is without top corner Pat Surtain II, but the reinforcements are more than holding their own. Dre Greenlaw, now fully healthy, is making a huge difference in the secondary. He’s racked up 14 tackles and a sack in just 48 snaps since returning from injury, and his presence — alongside Talanoa Hufanga — is making the middle of the field dangerous for opposing tight ends.

Raiders Look Out of Sync and Out of Hope

The Raiders have lost 5 of their last 6, including a 30-29 OT heartbreaker to the Jaguars last week. They also got embarrassed by the Chiefs 31-0 and were routed 40-6 by the Colts in Week 5. Sure, those are some decent teams, but they’re now 2-6 overall and 3-5 ATS. The offense ranks 30th in total yards, 29th in rushing, 24th in passing, and 29th in scoring. It’s been that ugly, and there are no signs of it getting better.

Geno Smith has had a rough go under center, throwing 11 TDs against 11 interceptions, and averaging just 213.6 passing YPG. With Jakobi Meyers now in Jacksonville, Smith is relying heavily on Tre Tucker, who leads the team with 32 catches for 427 yards and 4 touchdowns of his own. Tucker has shown flashes, but he’ll have a much tougher time working the middle with Greenlaw and Hufanga lurking.

The run game isn’t helping either, but they still have Ashton Jeanty, who has rushed for 487 yards on 124 carries, averaging under 4 yards a carry with just 3 touchdowns on the year. Blocking has been a big concern.

Defensively, the Raiders aren’t much better. They rank 23rd in scoring defense with 26.3 PPG allowed and are 19th overall in yards allowed. They’ve struggled to generate pressure with just 16 sacks total, and while Maxx Crosby leads the team with 5, he’s just one guy and not getting any help from the rest of the line.

Injuries aren’t making things easier. While CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. might finally make his season debut, both Isaiah Pola-Mao and Adam Butler are questionable as well. That’s a thin secondary going up against one of the most balanced offenses in the AFC.

Prediction — Broncos Pull Away in the Second Half

This matchup feels like 2 teams heading in opposite directions — because it is. The Broncos are peaking, with a stingy defense, a surging young QB, and a ground game that keeps them balanced. The Raiders are hanging on, hoping not to fall apart completely.

Denver has already swept the Raiders last season and has the defense to frustrate Geno Smith all night long. With no real threat in the run game and limited passing weapons, it’s hard to see Las Vegas keeping pace unless the Broncos make major mistakes and come into this game as a trap game. 

• Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 13
• Best Bet: Denver Broncos -9.5

Even without Pat Surtain, the Broncos’ defense is simply too fast, too deep, and too well-coached for Vegas to take advantage of. On offense, Nix should have plenty of time to work, and Dobbins could be in for another 80+ yard night and maybe even a TD in there.

We’re expecting something like Broncos 27, Raiders 13. We’re confident that Denver covers the -9.5 spread comfortably, and the under is also in play with Vegas unlikely to do much scoring.