Pittsburgh Penguins vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Florida Panthers on Friday night in a rematch that might just be pivotal for both teams. Despite plenty of hockey left in the season, Pittsburgh is on the playoff bubble, while Florida looks to stay in the upper echelon of the Atlantic Division.

These two Eastern Conference powerhouses last met a month ago, when the Penguins triumphed in a dramatic 5-4 OT win. Can they get that lucky this time around?

Penguins vs Panthers: Odds and Analysis

The Florida Panthers enter this game as the favorites per the bookmakers, with a moneyline of -210, compared to the Penguins at +175. Given how close the last game was, we’re fairly surprised by these odds. The puck line sits at Florida -1.5 (+120), while Pittsburgh gets +1.5 (-145). The over/under is set at 6 goals, with odds leaning towards the under at -120 — This tells us this just might be a higher-scoring game than we anticipated.

Florida’s recent form has been somewhat shaky. They’ve gone 1-3-0 in their last 4 home games, including a loss just last night against a surging Carolina. The Panthers are playing their 5th consecutive home game, and fatigue could definitely play a role, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve done these consecutive games before and faired just fine, but they’re slumping this time around.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has a slightly better recent record. They’ve been going 5-3-1 in their last 9 games despite a big loss to Detroit a few nights back on New Year’s Eve.

They’ve shown resilience on the road and are led by Sidney Crosby, who continues to put up solid performances with 10 goals and 31 assists this season despite his age. That said, the Penguins are missing a few key defensemen such as Kris Letang and Owen Pickering, which could make their already shaky defense even more vulnerable to a Panthers team that is looking to get back on track.

Key Matchups and Trends

Statistically, the Panthers do have the edge heading into tonight’s matchup.

They rank higher in goals scored per game (8th vs. 13th), shooting percentage, and even assists. They’re a high-energy offense that relies on peppering the net with shots and trying to play a redirect or a rebound. Their power play and penalty kill efficiency are also fairly strong, although only marginally better than Pittsburgh’s. So, the special teams might not be the big difference maker in this game.

The Penguins, however, have struggled defensively as of late. They sit 31st in the league in goals against, conceding 143 so far and they haven’t made the necessary changes to improve it. Goaltender Tristan Jarry, with a dismal .883 save percentage, has had a tough season, but then again, his lack of defensive support is playing a role.

On the other side of the ice, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been what we’d call dominant either. He’s holding a .899 save percentage, but he has been somewhat consistent enough to give his team confidence with him between the pipes.

Another critical factor we see heading into tonight is the Panthers’ fatigue. Back-to-backs are undoubtedly challenging, and the Penguins have been, for the most part, opportunistic, especially as underdogs. Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 games as underdogs following a road loss and has been solid against the spread in these types of situations.

Our Best Bet: Penguins Reverse Puck Line (+1.5)

This game has all the makings of a close one, but nonetheless going to be a good one.

Pittsburgh’s fight for a playoff spot gives them a little extra motivation, while Florida’s heavy schedule might be taking a toll on their stamina. Even though the Panthers are the favorites according to the sportsbooks, the Penguins’ recent form and their ability to keep games close make them the smarter play tonight.

We would take the Penguins +1.5 (-145) on the puck line.

It’s a slightly safer pick given their ability to keep games within arms reach. Florida may just have the firepower, but Pittsburgh’s desperation and Florida’s potential fatigue tip the scales slightly in the Penguins’ favor — at least for this bet. We’re not sure they can pull off the win, but they’ll put up a solid fight.

HelloRookie’s Prediction: Panthers 3, Penguins 2

Despite what the oddsmakers are saying, we’re expecting a low-scoring game, with Florida edging out a close win, but Pittsburgh covering the spread. If you want to bet on the total for this game, you might want to take a closer look at taking the UNDER.