Phillies vs Reds Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds continue their series at Great American Ball Park after Philadelphia’s late-game surge last night secured them a 4-1 win. The Phillies used an eighth-inning rally to flip the game, with help from Schwarber’s 42nd HR, scoring 4 unanswered runs after Cincinnati plated one in the 1st.

That win extended Philadelphia’s winning streak to 4 games, while Cincinnati dropped its 3rd in 5 games. Can the smoking hot Phillies keep it going?  There’s a good chance they can, especially with who is taking the mound for them.

Game Details and Betting Odds

The Phillies come in as -149 favorites on the moneyline with a run line of -1.5 at +104. The Reds are +123 underdogs, with a run line of +1.5 at -127. The total is set at 9 runs, with the over at -120 and the under at -101.

These odds seem about right given how these teams have been trending. Philadelphia is cruising, and the Reds are simply trying to remain over .500.

Philadelphia leads the NL East with a dominant 69-49 record, while Cincinnati is 3rd in the NL Central at just 62-58. But we all know there’s more to the story than just the team records. LHP Ranger Suarez, holding down an 8-5 record with a 2.94 ERA, will start for the Phillies against RHP Brady Singer and his 9-9 record and a 4.53 ERA for the Reds.

Phillies and Reds Game Analysis

Philadelphia’s offense has been steady and efficient all year, and they don’t look like they’re slowing down heading into the final stretch. They rank 5th in the MLB for batting average at .255 and 9th in runs scored with 555. They’re getting runs from up and down their lineup, but there are definitely a few that are standing out from the rest. Kyle Schwarber has been a consistent power source, hitting 42 home runs with 97 RBIs, while Trea Turner offers balance with a .282 AVG and solid on-base skills. This lineup has been especially effective late in games, as shown in last night’s comeback.

Where the Phillies really win their games is with their rotation. They have one of the best staffs in all of baseball. On top of that, Suarez has been one of the more dependable arms in Philadelphia’s rotation, posting a WHIP of 1.15 and holding hitters to a .243 OBA. His ability to limit free bases and keep the ball in the park — just 8 dingers allowed in 107 innings — gives him a clear edge in this matchup, and we’re not so sure the Reds have the bats to get to him.

Singer, on the other hand, has been fairly inconsistent. He’s allowed 14 HRs in 119.1 innings and has a WHIP of 1.35. It’s not terrible, but he has some work to do if he wants to get on the same level as Suarez. Opponents are hitting .274 against him, and his struggles with control (44 walks) can lead to big innings for disciplined lineups like Philadelphia’s.

The Reds’ offense has been middle of the pack, ranking 16th in batting average at .246 and 22nd in HRs per game. Elly De La Cruz, of course, has been their standout, hitting 19 home runs with 74 RBIs, but he hasn’t gotten enough consistent help. Gavin Lux has helped out just a bit and provided a .279 average, but the rest of the lineup has been streaky. If they’re going to snag a game or two of this series from Philly, they’ll need to be on fire, and we just don’t see that happening.

On the mound, Cincinnati’s team ERA of 3.88 ranks 14th in MLB, slightly behind Philadelphia’s 3.68. The Phillies also hold the strikeout advantage, fanning 9.1 batters per game compared to the Reds’ 8.2. In night games, Philadelphia has a strong 46-27 record, while Cincinnati sits at 35-33, showing only a modest home-field boost.

The pitching duel undoubtedly favors Suarez, and the Phillies’ balanced attack should wear down Singer by the middle innings. On top of that, there’s no reason Suarez can’t go a full 7-8 innings against this lineup, which would be bad news for the Reds. However, even once they get past Suarez, they’re not exactly in the clear. Cincinnati’s lack of late-game offense, as seen last night when they failed to score after the first inning, is a huge concern against a bullpen as solid as Philadelphia’s.

Prediction and Best Pick

Philadelphia’s recent momentum, stronger starting pitching, and more complete offensive profile easily make them the clear choice in this matchup. The Reds will likely need a big night from Singer and some early run support to have a shot, however, Suarez’s dominance and the Phillies’ late-inning confidence give them the upper hand for tonight’s showdown.

• Prediction: Phillies 5, Reds 2
• Best Bet: Phillies moneyline (-149)

We can’t see this happening any other way, but we’re going to take the cautious route with the moneyline instead of the run line. With their edge in pitching and current form, the Phillies are the safer play, and the value is still reasonable at -149. However, if you’re looking for extra payout, the Phillies at -1.5 (+104) is worth consideration given the potential for a multi-run win.