Patriots vs Broncos Prediction — Can Denver’s Defense Bail Out a Backup?

It was supposed to be a clash of AFC heavyweights that we all dreamed about. Two 14-3 teams with two elite coaches, but with Bo Nix out for the Denver Broncos and Jarrett Stidham stepping in ice cold, Sunday’s AFC Championship has taken a dramatic turn that nobody saw coming. The New England Patriots, led by breakout star Drake Maye, suddenly look like clear favorites — at least on paper.

But we’re not counting out Sean Payton’s Broncos just yet. They’ve still got the league’s stingiest defense, home-field advantage, and a coaching edge that could keep things tighter than many expect.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This game kicks off Sunday at 2:00 PM local time in Denver, and the Patriots enter as 4.5-point favorites, with the total set at 42.5. Bookmakers moved the line aggressively once Bo Nix was officially ruled out with a broken ankle, and when we saw the movement, it was apparent he was worth about 5 points to the spread, shifting Denver from a slight favorite to a home underdog.

The Patriots at -245 are now the moneyline favorites, while the Broncos sit at +200, a reflection of the uncertainty around Stidham’s first start of the season — and first pass since 2023.

If those numbers tell us anything, it’s that the bookmakers are putting more weight on Denver’s defense than they were on Nix himself. When you peel back the stats and see how they’ve made it this far, it’s easy to see why.

The Numbers — Patriots Offense vs. Broncos Defense

We’re just going to dig into the headliner matchup from the start — Drake Maye against the best pass rush in the NFL. This is a dominant offense against a dominant defense, and something will have to give.

Maye has been outstanding all season, where he’s put up 4,394 yards, 31 TDs, and 8 INTs, and is a finalist for MVP on top of all of that. New England averages 28.8 PPG, 2nd in the NFL, and is top 5 in both passing yards with 262.3 and total offense with 391.2 YPG. Stefon Diggs and Treveyon Henderson have helped form a balanced attack that’s been hard to stop.

But this won’t be an easy task for even one of the best offenses. Denver’s defense is ranked 2nd in total yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed per game. They’ve racked up a league-high 68 sacks, with Nik Bonitto leading the way with 14. That pass rush will test a Patriots line that’s already allowed 57 sacks, including 10 in the last 2 games. That’s not a good place to be, even for the Pats.

And while Patrick Surtain II likely won’t shadow anyone due to New England’s spread-it-around passing game, his presence undoubtedly forces tight windows. Denver’s defense has kept even elite offenses like Buffalo and the Chargers under wraps.

Patriots Defense and the Stidham Problem

The flip side of all of this is that New England’s defense is no joke either. They allow just 18.8 PPG and rank 6th against the run. In their 2 playoff wins, they’ve given up a combined 96 rushing yards on 44 carries. That’s dominance when it matters the most.

Now you have the Broncos’ Jarrett Stidham stepping in after not throwing a single regular-season pass. Most Broncos fans only know him from garbage time when he comes in to take the victory formation. In fact, his last start came in Week 18 of 2023 and hasn’t even logged a passing attempt since that year either. He’ll be the first QB since Joe Webb in 2012 to start a playoff game without a regular-season attempt.

Sean Payton may trust Stidham, but he’ll have to scheme around a cold QB, and no coach wants to be forced into that position. Denver is also without J.K. Dobbins, which puts the pressure on rookie RB RJ Harvey to step up. Harvey’s a solid pass-catcher, no doubt, but that may be more important than his rushing ability given how well New England defends the run.

We expect New England to load the box and dare Stidham to beat them over the top. They will surely pressure often and force Denver into obvious passing downs just to see how Stidham reacts. 

Recent Form and Trends

New England is on an absolute tear as they’ve won 5 straight, including playoff wins over Houston and the Chargers. In that stretch, they’ve outscored opponents 152-63 — and 3 of those wins came by 20+ points. There seems to be no slowing them down, but this Denver defense is a different challenge.

Denver, despite the quarterback issues, is 4-1 in their last 5, including a gritty OT win over Buffalo. But that win came at a huge cost. Without Nix, they’ll need near-perfect execution and big defensive plays to keep up. That’s a tall order against a team like the Pats.

And here’s a key stat that seems as relevant as ever coming into this game — the Patriots are 8-0 on the road this year. That includes wins at Miami, Baltimore, Buffalo, and New York. Of course, they haven’t faced a defense like Denver’s, but they’ve answered every test so far.

Prediction — Patriots Keep Rolling

We would love to see Stidham come out and write a Cinderella story, but it’s hard to bet on a QB making his first start of the year, especially when it’s a conference championship game. Even with a great defense behind him, and that’s even putting it lightly, Jarrett Stidham is walking into an impossible situation.

Drake Maye is a rising star, and he’s handled every challenge so far. Mike Vrabel’s defense is well-coached, opportunistic, and fully capable of rattling inexperienced QBs. And offensively, the Pats have enough balance to wear down even elite defenses over 4 quarters.

We expect New England to get a lead early, force Denver to abandon the run, and turn Stidham into a sitting duck.

• Prediction: Patriots 24, Broncos 13
• Best Bet: Patriots -4.5

This line is fair, and despite some market movement back toward Denver, we’re not overthinking it because the writing is on the wall. A top-tier defense can only carry you so far when your QB hasn’t thrown a pass all season. The Patriots are surging in all areas of the game, and they’re built to handle games like this. Lay the points with confidence as the Patriots are heading to Super Bowl LX.