Panthers vs Oilers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Game 5

The Stanley Cup Final returns to Edmonton with the series tied up at 2 games apiece following one of the most dramatic comebacks in Finals history. The Florida Panthers stormed out to a dominant 3-0 first-period lead in Game 4, only to watch the Edmonton Oilers claw their way back and absolutely steal a 5-4 win in OT on Leon Draisaitl’s NHL playoff-record 4th career OT goal. The stakes couldn’t be higher heading into tonight’s Game 5, and momentum might just be shifting—if only slightly. Nonetheless, there’s plenty of betting action on this game.

Game Details and Betting Odds

The puck drop is set for 7:10 PM ET tonight in Edmonton. The Oilers opened as -125 favorites on the moneyline, while the Panthers are coming in as slight underdogs at +105. The puck line has Edmonton -1.5 at +200 and Florida +1.5 at -245. The total is currently set at 6.5 goals, with the overpriced at +102 and the under at -122, which means this is going to be another tight game.

Bookmakers are giving Edmonton the edge largely due to home ice and their explosive comeback in Game 4, but this series has been anything but predictable and the bookmakers have had the Panthers as the favorites for most of the series. The Panthers have already pulled off 9 wins this season as underdogs of +100 or more, and they’ve shown no signs of backing down. There’s no reason they couldn’t pull it off again tonight, even if they’re on the road.

Momentum, Matchups, and Key Stats

Let’s be clear — We can all agree that Game 4 was an instant classic. Florida came out flying with Matthew Tkachuk potting 2 power-play goals in the opening frame. Anton Lundell added a 3rd before the first intermission, and at that point, it looked like the Panthers were about to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

But the Oilers had other ideas and they cleaned it up after that 1st period. After pulling Stuart Skinner, who gave up 3 goals on 17 shots, head coach Kris Knoblauch turned to backup Calvin Pickard, who changed the entire feel of the game. He went on to stop 18 straight shots in relief and gave Edmonton a chance to rally.

That’s exactly what they did. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse, and Vasily Podkolzin each scored in the 2nd period, tying the game at 3-3 before Jake Walman gave them the lead midway through the 3rd period. Just when it looked like Edmonton would skate off with the win, Sam Reinhart buried the tying goal as the 6th skater with just under 20 seconds left to send it to overtime — again. That’s 3 OT games in 4 games.

The Oilers are now thriving in OT. Draisaitl’s game-winner in Game 4 was his second OT goal of the series and his 11th of the playoffs overall. He knows how to play under pressure.

But don’t let the loss distract from how well Florida played. They outshot Edmonton 40-35, won the special teams battle by going 2-for-4 on the power play compared to Edmonton’s 1-for-4, and outhit the Oilers 34-25. The game was stacked in their favor. They also had a 5-0 edge in takeaways and came within inches of winning it themselves, hitting a post in OT. It doesn’t get much closer than that.

This series has also showcased the best of both team’s stars. Sam Reinhart leads the Panthers with 81 points on the season spanning 39 goals and 42 assists and has now scored 6 times in the postseason. He continues to show up in critical moments. Matthew Tkachuk now has 7 playoff goals, with 2 coming on the man advantage in Game 4. Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have lived up to their billing for Edmonton with Draisaitl racking up a goal and 2 helpers and McDavid getting a helper of his own. The Oilers are getting just enough depth scoring to stay dangerous, which is key as the series grinds on.

Our Panthers vs Oilers Prediction — Florida Takes Game 5

This prediction might come as a shock based on our previous picks, but you have to hear us out.

The Oilers made history in Game 4, but that doesn’t automatically make them the better team moving forward even on their home ice. They’ve been outshot in 3 of the 4 games and were lucky to escape Florida with a win. Their defense is still shaky early in games, and Calvin Pickard — while solid in relief — is not a guarantee if he gets the start again, hence he’s the backup to Skinner. That’s something the Panthers’ forecheck can exploit.

Florida’s power play is firing on all cylinders and is now converting at a 50% rate in Game 4. They’ve consistently generated quality looks and take advantage of Edmonton’s lapses in discipline. With Reinhart, Barkov, and Tkachuk dominating, Florida has the offensive firepower and structure to bounce back and take the lead.

• Panthers vs Oilers Game 5 Prediction: Panthers 4, Oilers 3
• Best Bet: Panthers Moneyline at +105

The value is clearly on Florida at +105. They’ve played better at even strength and special teams, and they’ve already proven they can win on the road. Even in the 2 games they’ve lost, they’ve outplayed the Oilers.

We’ll admit that the Oilers are flashy and dangerous, but Florida’s game is more complete right now. They play with poise and resilience, and that ability to regroup quickly after a gut-wrenching OT loss gives them the edge for tonight’s Game 5 matchup.