Padres vs Reds Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for Friday

The San Diego Padres are on a roll heading into Cincinnati, where they’ll open a 3-game weekend series against the Reds tonight at Great American Ball Park. San Diego, currently at 44-36, has won 4 of its last 5 and is gaining ground in the NL West as they chase the Dodgers for the #1 spot. Meanwhile, Cincinnati, sitting at 42-39, isn’t doing too bad either as they just won the series against the Yankees despite losing the finale last night. However, they’re still quite a ways back in the competitive NL Central.

The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET tonight and the Padres are listed as -132 favorites on the moneyline, while the Reds are home underdogs at +109. The total for this one is set at 9 runs telling us that this could be a battle of the bats.

Regardless, there’s still plenty of action to bet on for tonight’s matchup.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

Tonight’s game sets up an interesting contrast between 2 RHPs trending in opposite directions. Dylan Cease takes the hill for the Padres, carrying a 3-6 record with a 4.43 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 87.1 innings. His WHIP sits at 1.29, and he’s looked sharp this month despite what his overall numbers say. In 4 June starts, Cease has pitched to a 3.80 ERA, striking out 32 batters across 23.2 innings. His most recent start was a gem as he pitched 6.2 innings of one-run ball with 7 Ks against Kansas City.

Across the diamond, Nick Martinez is slated to start for the Reds. He’s not looking great as he’s just 4-8 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and just 63 strikeouts in 86 innings. Martinez hasn’t pitched beyond the 6th inning in any of his last 5 starts and owns a rough 7.17 ERA in June. He’s had better stretches. His most recent appearance was a one-inning relief outing against the Yankees—far from the momentum builder Cincinnati needs if they want to climb back up in the standings.

Cease’s ability to miss bats and limit damage, especially in high-pressure innings, gives San Diego a decent advantage in the pitching department. Martinez, meanwhile, has been hittable and for the most part inconsistent, especially against teams with patient hitters like the Padres.

Breaking Down the Matchup

The Padres enter this game with a bit of momentum. Winners of 4 of their last 5, they’ve taken down both the Nationals and Royals with balanced performances. Manny Machado is having a solid year as he’s hitting .298 with 13 homers and 47 RBIs. His .360 OBP and .492 SLG make him the anchor in this lineup that Martinez is going to have to pitch around. Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. has 15 homers and 37 RBIs and looks more comfortable at the plate than he did to start out the season.

Luis Arraez, known for his elite contact ability, is hitting .372 over his last 10 games, and he’s helping set the table for the heart of San Diego’s order. Although the Padres don’t necessarily hit for a ton of power — they’re just 26th in home runs — they do rank inside the top 10 in strikeout rate, which could wear Martinez down quickly.

The Reds’ offense, led by speedster Elly De La Cruz, is more explosive but also more volatile. De La Cruz has 18 home runs and 55 RBIs, but keep in mind that he’s also strikeout-prone, which could be trouble against Cease’s swing-and-miss stuff. TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer have chipped in as well lately, but as a team, the Reds are hitting just .242 over their last 10 games and were recently shut down by the Yankees in last night’s game. They lost that 7-1. That tells us their consistency isn’t there.

Team-wise, San Diego holds slight edges in ERA with a 3.59 vs. 3.85 and WHIP with a 1.22 vs. 1.28. They’ve allowed fewer walks and have racked up more strikeouts, which speaks to better-pitching depth across the board. Defensively, both teams have been in the middle of the road, but the Padres have been better at limiting OBA with .227 vs. .233.

As far as situational splits go, the Reds are 22-18 at home while the Padres are just 19-22 on the road. But let’s not forget that form matters, and San Diego has been the sharper club lately. The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 night games and seem to be putting together more complete performances. When we’re laying bets, we have to take everything into consideration.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

This matchup easily tilts toward the Padres, but it won’t be by much. Cease regained his form in June and looks ready to take on a high-risk, high-reward Cincinnati lineup that has been cold the past few nights — especially last night where they only put up 4 hits. Martinez’s recent struggles are simply hard to ignore, especially against a San Diego team that’s finding a rhythm offensively. While the Reds have the players that have some pop and can explode for big innings, San Diego’s pitching and lineup depth should keep them in check for most of the game.

• Padres vs Reds Prediction: Padres 6, Reds 4
• Best Bet: San Diego Padres moneyline at -132

The value really lies with the Padres on the moneyline at -132. There’s too much going right for San Diego right now, and with Martinez struggling, the Reds are in an undoubtedly tough spot. The total at 9 runs is a tight number, but given the recent form of both offenses and Martinez’s struggles, the over is worth a lean, though not the first bet we’d run to. If our prediction comes through, then it’ll hit.