Packers vs Lions Prediction — Thanksgiving Clash with Division on the Line

The NFC North race is tightening up fast as the Green Bay Packers head to Detroit for the early Thanksgiving showdown with the Lions. Both teams sit right behind Chicago, surprisingly, in the standings, and tomorrow’s game could swing playoff hopes in a big way. While Detroit is slightly favored, Green Bay enters hot, having won its last 2 games fairly convincingly. With momentum building and some key matchups swinging their way, this game has all the makings of a potential upset.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This game is the earliest of 3 for Thanksgiving and kicks off at 12:00 PM CST.

According to the current odds, the Lions are 2.5-point favorites, with the total set at 49 points. On the moneyline, Detroit is -150, while Green Bay sits at +125.

That slight edge in the spread means that the bookmakers are expecting a close one. But there’s more than just odds to consider when predicting how this will play out. We’re seeing some truly gritty play from both clubs.

How the Teams Match Up

The Lions sit at 7-4, just behind the 8-3 Bears in the NFC North. They’ve dropped a couple of recent games to the Vikings and the Eagles, and took their last game against the Giants into OT. That last game showed cracks on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Packers, also at 7-3-1, are heating up. They’ve beaten the Vikings, Giants, and Steelers over the last month, and their losses came in a defensive slugfest against Philly and a trap game in Carolina. They’ve given up just 6, 20, and 13 points in their last 3 wins, with the defense clicking at the right time.

Offense — Lions Slightly Flashier, But Packers Are Catching Fire

The Lions rank 2nd in the league in PPG at 29.6 and 4th in total yards with 391.8. Jared Goff has 23 TDs on the year, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is his favorite weapon with 884 receiving yards and 9 TDs. Add in Jahmyr Gibbs, who has 951 rushing yards and 10 TDs, and this offense is without a doubt as dangerous as it gets.

But they’ve struggled against tougher defenses. They’re 0-3 against top-10 pass defenses this year and average just 6.7 yards per attempt in those games. That includes the Week 1 loss to Green Bay, when the Lions managed just 2.1 yards per rush, and Goff was sacked 4 times.

The Packers offense, while much less explosive with the offense, is trending up. Jordan Love has passed for 2,560 yards with just 3 INTs, and he’s been one of the best QBs against man coverage all season — ranking 1st in EPA per dropback and third in DVOA. With weapons like Romeo Doubs sitting at 522 yards and 4 TDs and possibly Christian Watson returning, Green Bay could be getting healthy at just the right time. Josh Jacobs is also questionable for this game, but if Emanuel Wilson showed us anything last week, it is that Green Bay has plenty of ground options.

Defense — Packers Quietly Elite

Don’t let the Lions’ flash fool you — Green Bay’s defense is far better statistically.

The Packers give up just 18.4 PPG, good for 5th in the NFL, and rank 4th in total yards allowed with 278.7. Their pass defense holds teams to just 182.3 YPG — fifth-best — and their pass rush has quietly racked up 29 sacks, including 10 from Micah Parsons alone, but his double coverage is also enabling others to get in on the action as well.

The Lions, by comparison, allow 22.1 PPG and rank just 10th in total defense. They’ve struggled in coverage and allowed 10.4 yards per attempt last week against the Giants.

Trends and Intangibles

Green Bay has won its last 2 games and looks sharper each week. They’ve been careful with the ball on the road and haven’t turned it over much. On top of that, they’re crushing it with 3rd down conversions with 49.3%, good for the best mark in the NFL. The Lions, on the other hand, are converting at 36.5% putting them 24th.

The Lions have the better home record, but they’ve also shown signs of regression lately. Their defense is leaky, and Goff is 3-3 in games where he’s sacked 2+ times. Green Bay sacked him 4 times last time out and tallied 5 on JJ McCarthy last week.

Also worth noting is that the Packers dominated time of possession in recent games and sit just behind Detroit in average TOP per game.

Prediction — Packers Pull Off the Upset

This is a classic letdown spot for Detroit. Their defense is slipping, Goff is undeniably shaky under pressure, and the Packers are getting healthier, rolling, and playing with tons of confidence. Green Bay already beat Detroit once, and they’re looking like they’re matched up well again — especially with a pass rush that should harass Goff into mistakes.

With Jordan Love thriving against man coverage, the ground game finally clicking, and the Packers defense limiting big plays, this feels like a game where the underdog has more than a puncher’s chance. The numbers back it up, and the eye test does too.

• Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24
• Best Bet: Packers on the moneyline at +125

Take the Packers to win outright. The spread is small enough that if you like them, you might as well go for the plus money. They’ve shown they can beat Detroit, and the momentum is clearly on their side. The +125 payout offers great value for a team playing better football right now.