Orioles vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for July 23

The Cleveland Guardians aim to win the 4-game series against the Baltimore Orioles tonight at Progressive Field. With the first pitch of Game 3 set for 6:40 p.m. ET, there’s plenty of time to get your bets in on this one.

Cleveland has won the first 2 games by a combined score of 16-8 and is clearly riding a hot streak, while Baltimore continues to slide further down the AL East standings, not that they can get any lower than last, but they’re sitting 14.5 games back.

Game Details and Starting Pitchers

Zach Eflin will get the start for Baltimore, and frankly, it hasn’t been a good year for him. He comes into the game with a 6-5 record, but the numbers behind it are where the big concerns are. His 5.95 ERA and 1.44 WHIP just underscore the fact that he’s struggled to keep hitters off base and prevent damage. Over just 62 innings, he’s allowed 16 home runs and struck out only 78, while walking 12. He’s had better seasons, but it doesn’t look like he’s improving this year.

For Cleveland, Slade Cecconi gets the nod, and he’s a bit of an upgrade over Eflin. The rookie has quietly been one of the Guardians’ more reliable arms with his 5-4 record, a 3.84 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP over 63.1 innings. He’s limited walks well with just 18 all year and kept the ball in the park better than Eflin, allowing 11 homers in similar innings.

Without a doubt, the pitching edge goes to Cleveland here. He’s not the toughest SP the Orioles have faced, but Cecconi doesn’t need to be stellar to keep this lineup in check.

Betting Odds

The Guardians are -131 favorites on the moneyline, while the Orioles are sitting at +108 as the slight underdogs. On the run line, Cleveland -1.5 is priced at +161, while Baltimore +1.5 comes at -199. The total is set decently at 8.5 runs, with both the over and under priced at -110.

Given the way these 2 teams are trending, the Guardians being favored at home makes perfect sense, especially with Eflin on the bump for the O’s.

Ballgame Analysis and Prediction

This matchup is all about current form and trajectory, and there’s not too much else to it.

The Guardians are playing great baseball, winning 8 of their last 10 games and outscoring opponents by 18 runs in that span, and on top of that, they’ve already taken the first 2 games of this series and are on a 3-game home win streak. Cleveland’s offense, while not as flashy as some of the others in the AL, is getting the job done. Jose Ramirez has been red-hot, hitting 5 home runs in his last 10 games, and has now homered in each of the last 3 games where the Guardians were favored against the Orioles.

Cleveland has also hit the over in 6 straight games, and they’ve been scoring in droves. They rank near the bottom of the league in team batting average with a .225 and runs per game at 3.9, but right now they’re making the most of their opportunities and clawing their way back to relevancy.

On the other side of the diamond, Baltimore is trending down. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 and have been outscored 34-20 in those games. Their pitching has been an absolute mess. The Orioles’ staff owns a team ERA of 5.02, and they’ve allowed more HRs with 116 than any other AL team outside the White Sox.

The Orioles also have a brutal recent trend on the road against AL Central teams — they’ve lost 9 straight in that situation. That doesn’t bode well against a Guardians team that’s playing with confidence and finally finding some rhythm on their home field.

Offensively, the Orioles do have some pop in the bats, but not much — Ramon Laureano has 13 homers and Cedric Mullins leads the team with 42 RBIs — but the production has been inconsistent to say the least. Their batting average is .239 and slugging is .396, both of which are slightly better than Cleveland’s, but they haven’t shown much of that in this series.

A few more trends we’ve noticed and might be worth a bet are that the “Inning 1 Over 0.5 Runs” market has cashed in 6 straight night games for the Orioles. And Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one RBI in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games. These are the kind of depth contributions that help the Guardians win games even when Ramirez or Santana don’t deliver big hits.

As for the park, Progressive Field has averaged 8.1 runs per game this season, with the total going over 8.5 in half of them. The Guardians are 24-22-2 to the over at home, and if you’re leaning toward the total, there’s a good argument for the over again, especially with Eflin on the mound and both bullpens being stretched.

Final Prediction and Best Bet

We think tonight’s game is a great spot for Cleveland to win the series and set themselves up for a sweep tomorrow night. They’re the undeniably hotter team, have the better pitcher, and are playing at home where they’ve been solid. Baltimore’s issues on the mound, combined with their road struggles and their cold bats, make them tough to trust.

The Guardians’ recent surge should continue behind Cecconi and a confident offense, which makes this an easy bet.

• Orioles vs Guardians Prediction: Guardians 7, Orioles 4
• Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 at +158 on the run line

The easier option is to take the moneyline at -131, but we think this matchup is lopsided enough to cash on the run line. If you want to chase some more value, you might want to consider a prop bet on Jose Ramirez to hit a home run at +360, especially given his track record in this exact matchup. 

Cleveland has everything trending in the right direction — and Baltimore doesn’t — so we’re running with the Guardians tonight.