Oregon vs Indiana Prediction — Hoosiers Aim to Stay Perfect in Peach Bowl Clash

The College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl brings us a heavyweight showdown between 2 of the best teams in the country, but only one can move on to the CFP championship. #5 Oregon, who finished at 13–1, gets another crack at #1 Indiana, who went perfect on the season, the only team to beat the Ducks this season. Indiana walked into Eugene in October and walked out with a convincing 30–20 win. Since then, Oregon has reeled off 8 straight wins, but the Hoosiers haven’t exactly slowed down either — they’re coming off a 38–3 demolition of Alabama in the Rose Bowl — a statement win.

Game Details and Odds

Kickoff is set for Friday night at 6:30 PM ET, live from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and ESPN will have the coverage.

Bookmakers have Indiana favored by 3.5 points, with the total sitting at just 47.5. The moneyline gives Indiana a -180 edge, while Oregon is priced at +150 to win outright. That number just goes to show how tight this matchup could be — especially when factoring in Oregon’s revenge motivation.

The first meeting wasn’t really a blowout, despite the 10-point margin. The game was tied with under 7 minutes left on the game clock before Indiana pulled away. That late surge, helped by turnovers and sacks, made all the difference, but that was then. Now both teams are in the same spot.

Stat Breakdown and Key Matchups

This game features 2 of the most productive QBs in college football. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana’s Heisman winner, has thrown for 3,172 yards, 36 TDs, and just 6picks. What really sets him apart from other elite CFB QBs is his ability to stay calm in the pocket and hit every level of the field. This has essentially made Indiana’s offense one of the most efficient in the nation.

With that said, Dante Moore has been impressive as well. He comes in with 3,280 passing yards and 28 TDs. After throwing 2 picks and getting sacked 6 times in the October loss, Moore has tightened up and cleaned up his game. He played a solid game in the 23–0 blowout win over Texas Tech in the CFP quarterfinals and accounted for 5 touchdowns in the playoff run so far. His decision-making under pressure will be tested again against Indiana’s dominant, fast, and physical front.

Indiana comes into this one ranked 3rd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 PPG. They’re 5th in total defense and elite against the run, giving up only 73.7 YPG on the ground. That’s a bad matchup for Oregon, especially with top RB Jordon Davison ruled out for the game. Davison racked up 15 touchdowns this season and was a key red-zone weapon. His absence puts more weight on Noah Whittington, who has 829 yards this year and averaged nearly 94 YPG over his last 6. If anyone can handle the workload, it’s him.

The Hoosiers also boast a top-5 offense, averaging 41.6 PPG. They’ve been fairly efficient on 3rd downs, converting at a 56.5% rate, the best in the country. Their run game, led by senior RB Roman Hemby, gives them balance. Hemby has 1,000+ rushing yards and 7 scores. Add in Omar Cooper Jr., who’s caught 12 TDs of his own, and you have a versatile, explosive attack.

Oregon isn’t just along for the ride as they’re one of the grittiest teams in the country. The Ducks’ defense has stepped up, allowing just 15.1 PPG. They rank inside the top 10 in total defense and pass defense. Junior LB Teitum Tuioti leads the unit with 9.5 sacks, while Bryce Boettcher has racked up 125 tackles. They’ve forced 15 INTs this season and made Alabama’s backfield uncomfortable in their last few games.

But the earlier meeting showed where the matchup tilts just a bit. Indiana pressured Moore constantly, disrupted Oregon’s timing, and capitalized on mistakes. Sometimes that’s all it takes to beat one of the best teams. The Hoosiers controlled possession, made fewer errors, and finished drives. They’ve since added a dominant Rose Bowl win over Alabama, where they outgained the Tide by 200+ yards and didn’t allow a single TD to one of the best offenses this year.

There’s no doubt that Oregon will have to win up front. If they can protect Moore and give him clean pockets, they’ll have a chance to push the ball downfield. But that’s a big ask against a unit that leads the country in defensive efficiency. With the Ducks likely one-dimensional without Davison, the Hoosiers can sit on passing routes and send pressure on long downs.

We all know that both QBs can make magic, but Mendoza’s calm, maturity, and efficiency have stood out all year. He’s not flashy, but that’s part of his appeal because he’s always in control. He’s thrown just 6 interceptions all year, and his ability to extend plays with his legs helped kill off Oregon in the first meeting. You can bet that won’t change in this one.

Prediction and Best Bet

You can’t overlook the fact that Oregon’s been red-hot since losing to Indiana. They’ve won 8 straight, dominated in both playoff games, and Moore looks like the 5-star they recruited. But Indiana is absolutely on a different level right now. Their win over Alabama wasn’t just a statement — it was confirmation that this team is for real and Mendoza wants to add to his trophy collection.

The Hoosiers undoubtedly have the better defense, the more reliable offensive line, and the most efficient quarterback in college football. They’ve already beaten Oregon once earlier in the season, and they did it on the road. Now they get a neutral site with all the momentum on their side. Sure, the Ducks will compete, but Indiana’s consistency and playmaking on both sides of the ball will carry them again.

• Prediction: Indiana 27, Oregon 20
• Best Bet: Indiana -3.5

This won’t be a blowout like the previous games in the CFP.  Indiana has covered in 6 straight games, and their defense hasn’t allowed more than 10 points in over a month, and with Oregon missing its top back and relying heavily on Moore to carry the load, the Hoosiers should be able to force enough stops to pull away in the second half. It’ll be a close game, but Indiana moves on to the championship.