Oilers vs Stars Game 5 Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Edmonton Oilers are on the brink of closing out the Western Conference Final, holding a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Dallas Stars.

After dropping Game 1, the Oilers have bounced back with 3 convincing wins, outscoring Dallas 13-2 in the process. Now they head into Game 5 with a chance to punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final — again — against the same team they lost to last year, the Florida Panthers.

Is tonight the night that the WCF wraps up and we see a rematch of the Stanley Cup Finals from last year? Or will Dallas get their act together and figure out how to score goals?

Game Details and Betting Odds

Game 5 is set for tonight in Dallas with the Stars back on home ice, but they haven’t looked comfortable there lately.

After blanking the Oilers in Game 1, Dallas has been shut out once and limited to just one goal in 2 of the last 3 games. Oddsmakers are still leaning toward the Stars at -130 due to the home-ice factor, but based on form and momentum, it’s hard to see them as the better side right now. However, the Oilers are at +110, nearly even, so they’re at least acknowledging that the Oilers are crushing it right now.

Edmonton has undoubtedly taken full control of this series, while Dallas has lost its identity at the worst possible time.

Why Edmonton Has All the Momentum

The Oilers have found another gear since Game 2. They recognize they have a chance for revenge against Florida and they’re doing everything they can to get it.

Their stars are playing like stars, and the depth is finally coming through. Leon Draisaitl has been a force all postseason, leading the team with 52 points and a remarkable 16 power-play goals. He’s scored in 3 of 4 games this series, including a key power-play goal in Game 4. The Dallas defense simply hasn’t had an answer for him, but then again, many teams haven’t.

Then there’s Connor McDavid, who’s sitting on 74 points this postseason, including 52 assists. His speed and vision are constantly opening up the ice for teammates. Even role players like Corey Perry, who scored in Game 4, and Adam Henrique, who iced that same game with an empty netter, are stepping up and doing their part to get the Oilers to the Cup.

This isn’t just a one-line team anymore — in fact, this goes well beyond just the top 6. Edmonton is winning battles on the boards, out-hitting Dallas, and turning every mistake into a transition opportunity. In Game 4, the Oilers nearly doubled the Stars in hits 46 to 23 and forced 18 giveaways. That’s the type of physical, mistake-forcing hockey that wins in May and gets a team to the Stanley Cup Finals.

On the defensive end, Stuart Skinner continues to hold it down. He has a 2.47 GAA this postseason and has only given up 2 goals in his last 3 starts. It’s honestly a good mix of stellar netminding and defense doing their part. With Edmonton controlling puck possession and limiting high-danger chances, Skinner hasn’t had to stand on his head — but he’s been solid when tested. He hasn’t been this great throughout the regular season, but he’s showing he can do it when it matters the most.

Compare that to Jake Oettinger, who’s been less sharp in this series. He’s allowed 13 goals in the last 3 games and carries a .908 SV% into Game 5. With Dallas struggling to generate any amount of offense, they need him to steal games — and that hasn’t happened yet.

What’s Gone Wrong for Dallas

Dallas can’t score, and that’s the root of their problems. The Stars have been absolutely shut down since Game 1 and they managed just a single goal in each of the last 3 games. For a team that got here by balancing scoring and structure, they’ve completely lost that balance and have just one game left to figure it out.

Jason Robertson has just 9 goals in the playoffs. Matt Duchene leads the Stars in points but hasn’t been able to spark the team when it matters most. And with their top lines misfiring, Dallas hasn’t gotten the kind of depth scoring they need to stay afloat. It’s a problem up and down the lineup.

The Stars do have some advantages, however. They won more faceoffs in Game 4 with 30 compared to Edmonton’s 19 and blocked more shots. That’s a good start, but those numbers are hollow when you’re giving the puck away 18 times and getting outplayed on special teams. Dallas has just a 25% power-play success rate this postseason and a PK unit that ranks below the top half.

Meanwhile, Edmonton owns the second-best power-play unit in the playoffs and ranks 2nd in GF/G with 3.93. The Oilers are not just more dangerous — they’re cleaner, sharper, and playing with confidence. That’s everything the Stars are missing right now.

Prediction and Best Bet

This series has shifted dramatically since Game 1. We thought we’d see a more competitive series with this one, but that’s not the case. Edmonton has taken control in every aspect — scoring, special teams, goaltending, and physical play. Dallas looks like a team that’s out of answers, and unless their top players break out of their slump and maybe some depth players figure it out as well, it’s hard to see them extending this series.

We think the Oilers should close it out in Game 5, even on the road. They’ve shown they can dominate Dallas anywhere, and their top-end talent is simply overwhelming right now.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Oilers 3, Stars 1
• Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline at +110

With all the momentum on their side and Dallas crumbling offensively, backing the Oilers straight up is the smart play. Dallas is going to play extremely aggressively tonight as their season is on the line, but the Oilers are just as hungry as ever after watching Florida can the Canes last night.