6 Best Bets and Predictions for NFL Week 4: Rams Face Colts in Stellar Matchup

The first three weeks of the NFL season have shown us which teams are living up to pre-season expectations and which ones are reeling to keep their seasons alive. After 3 weeks, we have six 3-0 teams, and six 0-3 teams, and either the Ravens or Chiefs will enter week 5 with a 1-3 record.

Week 4 kicks off at 9 AM EST in Dublin, Ireland, as the Steelers host the Vikings. Bonus bet here, I like the Vikings on the ML, but if you prefer better odds, anything under -2.5 is solid here! We went 2-1-1 in last week’s article. This week, I am giving out two moneylines, two totals, and two sides. Let’s break them down!

Falcons ML (–120) vs. Washington

Atlanta comes in at 1–2 and has struggled to finish drives, dropping a big egg in Carolina last week, a literal egg scoring zero points. Through three games the Falcons are averaging just 14 points per game, while the defense has done their part allowing 19.7.

While the Falcons are searching for answers to be more consistent and explosive on offense, they host a banged-up Washington squad coming off a big home win vs the Raiders last week. Daniels and McLaurin have both been ruled out for this matchup and missing those two stars should give the Falcons some much needed life.

Washington allowed 3 and 4 sacks in weeks 1 and 2, Atlanta averages 2.7 per game, 5th best in the NFL. Atlanta ranks 2nd in NFL in total defense allowing just 227 per game, leading the league in pass defense allowing just 131 per game and top ten in rush defense. I believe Atlanta’s defensive line will get pressure on Mariota all day, eking out a close win. I like the Falcons to win outright in a tight, low-scoring matchup, 20-17.

Rams ML (–160) vs. Colts

Indianapolis has been one of the league’s biggest surprises offensively, averaging over 34 points per game, which is good enough to rank near the top of the NFL. They’ve been able to hit big plays and finish drives with touchdowns. Having said that, it did come against the Titans and the Dolphins, both 0-3 teams, while the Broncos defense currently looks like a shell of itself from last season.

Now Indiana Jones travels across the country against a very good Rams squad. The Rams have been steady on both sides of the ball, rank top 5 in total defense, and allow just 20 points per game. Heading home after a tough loss on the road at Philadelphia screams buy spot for this Rams team.

I think this Colts hot start could get halted quickly and could string some losses together after this one. Give me the more balanced team with the higher upside as I see the Rams making a case for the post season once again. I don’t love the Rams home field advantage as they lost four home games last season; this is my hammer spot of the week which is why I am okay with -160 odds at ML on Novig. Take the -3 if you want better odds, Rams have just had issues in the past blowing teams away.

49ers Under 49 (–135) vs. Saints

San Francisco’s defense has been elite through the first three weeks, holding opponents to just over 16 points per game. The 49ers control tempo by dominating time of possession and forcing teams to grind for every yard. Even losing Nick Bosa to ACL tear I believe this defensive front seven will be stout all season.

The Saints, on the other hand, have been stuck in neutral offensively, averaging in the mid-teens per game and struggling to generate explosive plays. With both sides playing with low-level quarterbacks, playing slower and leaning on the run, a total near 50 points feels too high.  Both teams have low-level quarterback play, I’ve never been too high on Lawrence and Jones can look very mediocre. I expect both defenses to stand out in this matchup, anything down to u47.5 I like here.

Giants Under 45 (–130) vs. Chargers

The Giants are averaging just 17 points per game, and their offensive line problems have made it tough to sustain long drives. Now enters a rookie QB in Jaxson Dart, and while I do think he will have success, this Chargers defense may not give up a lot.

The Chargers are unbeaten but haven’t been pushing games into track meets. Now they are in a spot coming off three straight division games and travel across the country to face a very solid defense. The Chargers recipe to win has been behind efficient defense that limits opponents to fewer than 16.7 points a game.

With both teams ranking in the lower half of the league in pace, and both defenses hard to penetrate, I don’t think there will be enough possessions to push this over. I expect a grind-it-out game here as Harbaugh makes it tricky for Dart to sustain drives and make explosive plays.

Dolphins –2 (–123) vs Jets (Monday Night)

Miami is 0–3 but they looked much better than an 0-3 team against the Bills this past Thursday. Now they get a few more days to prepare to play a divisional opponent at home. Miami is still talented on offense and has plenty of weapons to compete in most games. Their biggest issue has been turnovers and as the season goes I expect Tua to settle in more. They took this game last year at home vs the Jets and I see a repeat here.

This is a game between two bad teams and two currently bad defenses. I have to lean towards the team with the better offense. Breece Hall and the Jets rushing attack has struggled to find consistency and I don’t expect that to change here. Take the better offense who I think will score 28+ here as Achane and Hill see pay dirt.

Broncos –6 (–148) vs Bengals (Monday Night)

Denver has had its ups and downs early, sitting at 1–2, but they’ve shown flashes of balance on offense. Their running game has been efficient, and when they’ve avoided mistakes, they’ve been able to control pace. If Bo Nickal can protect the ball this should be a route of 10-14+ points at home against this Bengals team.

Defensively, it hasn’t been perfect, but against a struggling opponent, their ability to lean on the run and force the other side into obvious passing situations should tilt this matchup. Browning will turn the ball over, Chase Brown will get stuffed and the Bengals 26th ranked scoring defense will get exposed here. Laying six points on Monday night is a lot, but Denver’s overall edge makes it worth the play.