NFL Black Friday Underdog Props for Dolphins at Jets

The NFL’s latest experiment to determine the number of TV slots they can fill with games that still draw viewers means that our fans get an afternoon Black Friday meeting between the Dolphins and Jets. Miami is favored by ten on the road with a lowly total of 41.5 points in their first of two meetings with New York over the next four weeks.

The Jets dominated this matchup on their home field last season, beating the Fins 40-17 at MetLife Stadium when Skylar Thompson played quarterback for Miami. Four Jet players rushed for touchdowns, and Breece Hall had 197 scrimmage yards as New York had its widest margin of victory against Miami in the history of their rivalry.

In honor of this occasion, we’ve prepared a prop card for this meeting between AFC East foes and present our best bets for the lone Friday game on the NFL calendar in 2023.

It’s much easier to stop the run when defenses know the other team can’t throw over the top of a loaded box. Hall had been putting together a promising sophomore season after last year’s ACL tear, averaging 7.2 yards per carry through five games on 54 rushing attempts.

In the five games since, he’s been limited to 2.5 yards per rush on 63 carries as teams have keyed in on Zach Wilson’s struggles at QB. Miami allows just 3.8 yards per rush this season, sixth-best in the NFL.

The Dolphins’ secondary is strong enough to inspire fear in new starter Tim Boyle. We expect Hall to have another modest game Friday in a challenging matchup.

Jaylen Waddle UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards

The featured matchup in this contest is between the Jets’ secondary and the Dolphins’ passing game. New York’s defense ranks among the top five units against the pass, while Miami’s air attack is tops in the league, averaging 291 yards per game.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is pacing for nearly 5,000 yards. At the same time, Tyreek Hill could become the first receiver to post a 2,000-yard season, and New York is undoubtedly preparing to slow them down in any way possible.

Usually, that would leave the door open for a second receiver to shine, but that hasn’t been the case for the Jets’ recent opponents: The second-leading receiver for the last five teams they’ve faced has averaged 2.6 catches and 27.8 yards per game. Waddle struggled against KC and Las Vegas, and we project more of the same for him in this game.

Xavier Gipson UNDER 16.5 Receiving Yards

Gipson has garnered seven of his nine targets this season in the last three games, a sign that he’s beginning to find his role in a Jets’ offense that could use any new infusion of life.

The reasons we expect him to fall short of this total include a new quarterback for New York, a short week of practice, and a Dolphins’ front seven that is fifth in the NFL at generating pressure.

Boyle will find it tricky to connect with his receivers when he’s being chased from the pocket every four plays or so, and Gipson’s targets will be among the first to fall victim.