It was a 2-horse race last season for the NFC South. Tampa Bay ended up winning out over Atlanta, while Carolina and New Orleans finished tied with 5 total wins on the year.
The question is, are we going to see Carolina or New Orleans be a team to compete with the other 2 in the divisional race this season? Here is how things shook out last year, and we will discuss what we expect this season in the NFC South.
| TEAM | OVERALL RECORD | DIVISION RECORD | CONF RECORD |
| Tampa Bay | 10-7 | 4-2 | 8-4 |
| Atlanta | 8-9 | 4-2 | 7-5 |
| Carolina | 5-12 | 2-4 | 4-8 |
| New Orleans | 5-12 | 2-4 | 4-8 |
Atlanta had an interesting season last year. They brought in Kirk Cousins from Minnesota and then drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the draft. These moves left many stunned and confused, including Kirk Cousins.
After going 7-7 to start, they then decided to hand the reins over to Penix Jr, who led them to finish 8-9 and miss out on the playoffs. Sure, they have Bijan Robinson and Drake London as exciting young playmakers, but the defense needs to be better.
They finished in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in yards allowed and points allowed per game last season. We don’t believe Penix is the answer, and the lack of addressing their defensive concerns leads us to believe they will finish under their win total this season.
The pick: Under 8.5
The Saints had high hopes early in their 2024 campaign. The offense was clicking, and the sky looked to be the limit. Then the injuries began to happen. Derek Carr was lost, and the offense sputtered.
Over the offseason, Carr decided to retire, and the Saints moved on from coach Dennis Allen. Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler are both likely to take snaps this season. It is never a good thing for a franchise to not have a clear starter this close to the season.
The defense was near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per game, but they did add Chase Young and Julian Blackmon. They are not likely to make a huge difference, and the lack of veterans on offense is a big concern. We like the under on the Saints here.
The pick: Under 5.5
Despite losing receiver Chris Godwin to injury, the Bucs still found a way to keep the offense going. Baker Mayfield has looked like he finally found a true home here in Tampa, and his connection with Mike Evans has continued to impress.
They finished with double-digit wins and took the division over the Falcons last season. With Godwin’s injury and questions about how he can recover and bounce back, the team drafted Emeka Egbuka in the draft.
There is hope that he can exceed what Godwin was able to do when healthy. They did lose some starters on defense, but we still like them to repeat and get to double-digit wins again this season.
The pick: Over 9.5 and Division Winner +100
Bryce Young started the season at QB, then was benched, then was brought back as the starter. It was not an easy process for the young signal caller, but he looked rejuvenated during his 2nd stint as the starter.
They brought in Rico Dowdle to take over for Miles Sanders, who left for Dallas in the backfield. He will spell Chuba Hubbard, who had a breakout season last year. They also added receiver Tet McMillan through the draft, who will complement Xavier Leggette well on the outside.
The defense finished last in yards and points allowed on the season. They must be better if they are going to get anywhere near their win total this season.
The pick: Under 6.5
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