New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet

The Buffalo Bills will put their unbeaten record on the line when they host the New England Patriots tomorrow night for SNF. Buffalo comes into this game at 4-0, sitting atop the AFC East, while New England is 2-2 after an inconsistent start. Both teams are coming off wins, but the paths have looked very different — the Bills have been absolutely dominant, while the Patriots are still trying to piece things together on offense and get a rhythm going.

Game Details

This primetime matchup kicks off tomorrow night at 7:20 PM EST on NBC. The Bills have started the season with statement wins over some solid teams, including Baltimore, the Jets, Miami, and New Orleans. They’ve averaged a hefty 33.3 PPG, good for second-best in the NFL, while only allowing 22.5 PPG. Josh Allen is looking great as he has thrown for 964 yards and 7 TDs, adding his usual playmaking ability with his legs, and running back James Cook has been a spark on his own with 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs already.

The Pats, meanwhile, are coming off their best performance of the year in a 42-13 blowout win over Carolina. That might not say too much, but a win is a win. Quarterback Drake Maye had his most efficient outing, building on a season where he’s thrown for 988 yards, 7 touchdowns, and just 2 INTs. The biggest issue for New England is balance — they rank near the bottom of the league in rushing, with Rhamondre Stevenson at just 125 yards through 4 games. They simply don’t have enough tools to remain competitive against great teams.

Betting Odds

The bookmakers have made Buffalo a strong home favorite, and it’s easy to see why. The Bills are listed at -9.5 on the spread, while the Patriots are +9.5 underdogs. On the moneyline, Buffalo sits around -425, while New England is priced at +330. The over/under total is set at 49.5 points, suggesting bookmakers expect plenty of scoring in this divisional matchup.

These numbers feel right despite what their records say. The Bills are not just winning, but dominating, and the Patriots are squeaking by. 

Pats vs Bills Game Analysis

It’s undeniable that the Bills are clicking in every phase of the game right now. Their offense is ranked 2nd in the NFL in total yards per game at 412.5, and they’ve been efficient through the air and on the ground. Allen is averaging nearly 250 passing yards per game, and Cook has helped them control tempo with an NFL-best rushing output of 163.5 yards per game. That balance makes them extremely tough to defend, especially against a New England team that has struggled to stop the run at times.

Defensively, Buffalo has been equally impressive. They allow an average of just 290 total YPG, ranking 11th in the league, but where they truly shine is against the pass. The Bills’ secondary has given up just 125.8 passing yards per game. That’s the best in the NFL. That’s a nightmare scenario for a young QB like Maye, who has leaned heavily on Stefon Diggs as his go-to receiver, but even then, he only has 19 receptions for 213 yards. If Buffalo limits the Maye/Diggs combo, the Patriots may struggle to move the ball consistently and put anything on the board.

New England’s defense has held its own, giving up just 20.3 points per game, but the numbers may be a little misleading. They looked solid against Carolina and Pittsburgh, but when facing faster offenses like Miami, they gave up 27 points and had trouble containing explosive plays. Buffalo’s offense has a similar level of talent and balance, which could put the Patriots in the same difficult position.

The Patriots do have a few things working in their favor. They’ve managed 10 sacks on the year, tied for 12th in the league, and linebacker Robert Spillane has been active in coverage. In fact, he already leads the team with 31 tackles. If they can get pressure on Allen and force him into a few big mistakes, they’ll have a shot to keep this one close. But Allen has only thrown one pick this season, and Buffalo’s offensive line has been strong in protecting him.

Another factor we can’t overlook is the time of possession. Buffalo averages 34 minutes per game controlling the ball, while the Patriots sit just over 30 minutes. That edge often leads to opponents wearing down in the second half, something New England can’t afford against an offense that keeps its foot on the gas for all 4 quarters.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Patriots are improving with each week, but this matchup feels like too much, too soon for Drake Maye against one of the league’s toughest defenses and easily one of the best offenses.

Buffalo’s ability to limit passing attacks plays directly against what New England needs to succeed. With James Cook pounding the ground game and Allen picking his spots through the air, the Bills should control both tempo and scoreboard for the entire game.

• Bills vs Patriots Prediction: Buffalo Bills 31, New England Patriots 17
• Best Bet: Bills -9.5 at -112

The Bills covering the spread at -9.5 looks like the most reliable play because we’re not so sure this game will be close. Buffalo has won by an average margin of nearly 11 points this season, and with New England’s offense still inconsistent, the Bills should be able to cover at home. For totals bettors, the under on 49.5 is worth a look, given Buffalo’s defense and New England’s reliance on a young QB against the league’s best secondary.