March Madness is here, and I am here to bring you TWO plays tonight. Both are in the Play-In games, which means that whoever wins moves onto the Big Dance!
Two of these play-in games involve 16 seed teams, which most know their fate next round, meeting up with #1 Seeds. While the other two involve 11 seeds, that still has something to prove. We have to manage our bankrolls wisely during March Madness, but there can be some nice money to be made!
Alabama State and St Francis (PA), on paper, are fairly closely matched. Alabama State scores 1 more point per game, while they both allow 73 points. They both also found just 6 wins on the road, but Alabama State is looking for their 20th overall win in this one. The turnover statistics and player experience really stick out for me in this contest,
Alabama State turns the ball over on offense 5th least in the country compared to 298th-ranked St. Francis (PA), turning it over 19 times per game. State’s defense ranks inside the top 100, turning teams over at 19 a game. KenPom has State rated 38 spots higher than St Francis and Alabama State is the more experienced team with 3-4 starting seniors depending on their lineup over L5 games and that experience should play a role here.
San Diego State has covered +5.5 in 15/L20 and 11/L14 games overall. They are also 2-1 against Top 25 teams while UNC sits at just 1-7. My models have this a 4-point game, so I’ll gladly take the 5.5. SDSU still has one of the best defenses in the country, ranked 13th in points allowed at 64 and ranked 8th in effective FG% allowed at 45%.
UNC has been on a roll covering the spread in each of their L9 games, but this may be the best defense they have faced in that span. UNC averages 10 more points on offense than SDSU, but SDSU allows 13 less points than UNC and I believe they can keep this one close!
Best Bets:
1.5% Alabama State -2.5 (-127)
1.5% San Diego State +5.5 (-125)
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