Categories: CBB

NCAA Tournament: 2 Best Bets for First Four on Tuesday, March 18

March Madness is here, and I am here to bring you TWO plays tonight. Both are in the Play-In games, which means that whoever wins moves onto the Big Dance!

Two of these play-in games involve 16 seed teams, which most know their fate next round, meeting up with #1 Seeds. While the other two involve 11 seeds, that still has something to prove. We have to manage our bankrolls wisely during March Madness, but there can be some nice money to be made!

Alabama State Experience Is Big

Alabama State and St Francis (PA), on paper, are fairly closely matched. Alabama State scores 1 more point per game, while they both allow 73 points. They both also found just 6 wins on the road, but Alabama State is looking for their 20th overall win in this one. The turnover statistics and player experience really stick out for me in this contest,

Alabama State turns the ball over on offense 5th least in the country compared to 298th-ranked St. Francis (PA), turning it over 19 times per game. State’s defense ranks inside the top 100, turning teams over at 19 a game. KenPom has State rated 38 spots higher than St Francis and Alabama State is the more experienced team with 3-4 starting seniors depending on their lineup over L5 games and that experience should play a role here.

Can Aztecs Defense Lock Down UNC?

San Diego State has covered +5.5 in 15/L20 and 11/L14 games overall. They are also 2-1 against Top 25 teams while UNC sits at just 1-7. My models have this a 4-point game, so I’ll gladly take the 5.5. SDSU still has one of the best defenses in the country, ranked 13th in points allowed at 64 and ranked 8th in effective FG% allowed at 45%.

UNC has been on a roll covering the spread in each of their L9 games, but this may be the best defense they have faced in that span. UNC averages 10 more points on offense than SDSU, but SDSU allows 13 less points than UNC and I believe they can keep this one close!

Best Bets:

1.5% Alabama State -2.5 (-127)
1.5% San Diego State +5.5 (-125)

Top Flight Wagers

Top Flight Wagers provides winning sports information to a wide variety of customers! Just how good are these guys? They're currently up over 113 units in 2025. They can be found on X @TopFlightWagers

Share
Published by
Top Flight Wagers

Recent Posts

Stanley Cup Final 2025 Preview — Oilers vs Panthers Prediction

It’s a revenge tour for the Oilers and a repeat bid for the Panthers. Two…

1 hour ago

UFC Fight Night Predictions: 4 Best Bets for Saturday, May 31

With UFC 316 just around the corner, MMA’s premier organization will provide fans with a…

3 days ago

Knicks at Pacers Predictions: 3 Player Props for Game 6 on May 31

After an inspiring Game 5 victory back at Madison Square Garden, New York will need…

3 days ago

White Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet: Fade the Pitching, Back the Bats

Two last-place teams face off in Baltimore, but only one has a pitcher trending in…

3 days ago

Pacers vs Knicks Predictions: 3 Player Props for Game 5

It is now or never for the new-look New York Knicks as they trail Indiana…

4 days ago

Oilers vs Stars Game 5 Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Oilers have flipped the series on its head and now sit one win away…

4 days ago

This website uses cookies.