MLB Divisional Series Betting Outlook — Where We Stand and What the Odds Are Saying

As we hit the midpoint of the MLB Division Series, some teams are already waiting for their life support plug to be pulled, while others are knocking loudly on the door of the Championship Series. As a bettor, you’re probably following the money — whether you’re betting the games or watching the odds — the picture is just as interesting as the games themselves.

The favorites are starting to separate themselves from the pack, but nothing is really locked up yet. That’s one of the best things about playoff baseball. Here’s where we stand heading into a crucial set of Game 3s and how the current betting odds stack up against what we’ve seen on the field.

Dodgers Stay on Track As October Favorites

It’s no surprise to see the Los Angeles Dodgers with the shortest odds to win the World Series at +175. Surprisingly, they’ve taken a commanding 2-0 lead over the Phillies, and their combination of pitching and timely hitting is making that number look more and more like a value bet for the ALCS.

In Game 2, Blake Snell looked like his usual Cy Young self again. But the offense didn’t really show up until the 7th inning. That’s when Kike Hernandez, Will Smith, and Shohei Ohtani finally broke through, turning a scoreless game into a 4-0 edge in a matter of a few minutes.

Then, of course, the bullpen made it even more interesting — as they’ve done all year — letting the Phillies climb back to within a single run in the 9th, but Alex Vesia and rookie sensation Roki Sasaki shut it down to notch the win.

Now the Dodgers are heading back to L.A., and they need just one more win to move on. Given their depth, insane star power, and favorable path, it’s easy to understand why they’re the betting favorite. But if you’re holding a bet slip on them, you still have to sweat the bullpen every time they get the ball. That makes for a really long NLDS.

For Phillies bettors, they’re sitting at +4000 for the WS, and there’s no sugar-coating it — they’re toast unless something dramatic happens tomorrow night. You’re better off lighting that ticket on fire unless you think Bryce Harper and Co. can make history with one of the biggest Divisional Series comebacks ever.

Brewers Smash Their Way Into Control — And Into Betting Value

Milwaukee sits at +450 to win it all, but those odds might not last long. After spanking the Cubs 9-3 in Game 1 and then again 7-3 in Game 2, they look like one of the most complete teams still playing.

They’ve done it with unapologetic power — all 7 of their runs in Game 2 came on home runs with 2 outs — and with dominant relief pitching. Rookie Jacob Misiorowski was absolutely untouchable in his postseason debut, throwing 31 pitches at 100+ mph. He pitched 3 scoreless innings and gave a preview of just how deep this Brewers bullpen goes.

Add that to the offense from guys like Andrew Vaughn, William Contreras, and 20-year-old Jackson Chourio, and you have a team that looks like it belongs in the NLCS and possibly the World Series.

For those holding a Brewers futures slip, you’re in a good spot. And if you don’t have one yet, +450 is still a decent value if you think they can beat either the Dodgers or Phillies in a potential NLCS run.

The Cubs, sitting at +2800, would need to win 3 straight to stay alive, and that’s a tall order. Even with the series headed to Wrigley, it’s technically possible, but nothing we’ve seen so far supports the idea that they can slow Milwaukee’s offense or keep up on the mound. It’s just too much for the Cubs to overcome.

Blue Jays Trending Up Fast After Crushing the Yankees

Toronto came into October with +400 odds to win the World Series, and they’ve looked every bit the part through two ALDS games.

Game 2 was another beatdown of the Yankees, this time 13-7. It wasn’t even that close. Though after going 12-0, it was exciting to see the Yankees try to claw their way back into it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit the first postseason grand slam in franchise history, Daulton Varsho had 4 extra-base hits, and rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage — who started this year in Low-A — struck out 11 Yankees over 6 hitless innings. 

So while the bullpen leaked late in the game, it didn’t really matter. Toronto now leads the series comfortably at 2-0 and is one win away from the ALCS. Based on current form, they may be the biggest threat to the Dodgers among the remaining teams.

With the way they’re hitting and the young arms they have, that +400 line might end up looking fairly generous. If you think this team is getting hot at just the right time, they’re worth a look before those odds shorten even further.

In the other dugout, the Yankees are teetering. They’re priced at +1600, and that feels overly optimistic. Their bullpen has been shaky, their starters haven’t missed bats as they’d hoped, and they’ve been overwhelmed on both sides of the ball. Tuesday’s Game 3 is a must-win at Yankee Stadium, but even that might not be enough to spark a comeback as they’ll need to go 3-0 against one of the hottest teams.

Seattle Levels Up Behind Polanco’s Power

The Mariners came into October priced at +700, and they’ve looked like a sneaky value play. After losing Game 1 at home, they bounced back with a 3-2 win over the Tigers, thanks to a pair of solo shots from Jorge Polanco and a clutch 8th-inning rally from Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez.

That gave Seattle its first home playoff win in 24 years, and evened the series 1-1.

Game 3 is shifting to Detroit this afternoon, with Logan Gilbert taking on Jack Flaherty on the bump. If the Mariners can win that one and keep the series from going the full 5, their odds will tighten fast — especially since they’d avoid facing Skubal again unless it goes to a Game 5 in which we’ll probably see him one more time.

Seattle has the power, the pitching, and the bullpen to make a run, but if you’re looking for a mid-range bet with upside, +700 is a fair price for a team that can hang with anyone.

Detroit, meanwhile, is at +900. We feel that’s a bit long given their pitching and the way they fought back in Game 1. But they’ll need more than just Skubal to carry the load. Their bats will need to turn out.

If you believe in postseason magic, you might take a flyer, but right now the Mariners look slightly more dangerous, even if it’s not by much.

A Closer Look at the Betting Board

Here’s how the World Series odds are shaping up as of this morning—

• L.A. Dodgers: +175
• Toronto Blue Jays: +400
• Milwaukee Brewers: +450
• Seattle Mariners: +700
• Detroit Tigers: +900
• New York Yankees: +1600
• Chicago Cubs: +2800
• Philadelphia Phillies: +4000

The Dodgers are still the class of the field in the eyes of the bookmakers, but the Blue Jays and Brewers are closing fast and looking hot.

Milwaukee has power, bullpen depth, and a manageable path, while Toronto looks like a buzzsaw right now, and if their bullpen holds up, they could match up well with anyone in a 7-game series.

If you’re hunting value, Seattle at +700 is worth a look as they’ve shown resilience, and their bullpen has been lights out. Detroit at +900 is more of a long shot, but still in play and priced nicely considering they’re at a game a piece.

The Yankees, Cubs, and Phillies are all staring down elimination, and the odds reflect it, and we’re not touching those futures. If you’re betting on any of those 3, it’s either out of fandom or pure speculation at this point.

Game 3s Coming Up!

This round has had everything so far, between the wild swings, breakout stars, rookies dominating, and heavy hitters stepping up. And if you’re following the betting lines, you’re starting to see which teams the bookmakers really believe in.

The Dodgers are still the safest pick and have been since the beginning of the season. The Blue Jays, though great, are surging even more. The Brewers are under the radar but scary. And the Mariners might be the dark horse with real teeth.

If you’re going to place a future bet, now’s the time. The odds will shift quickly as these Division Series wrap up. Wait too long, and you might miss the value. There’s still plenty of time to lock in your MLB futures bets before the Game 3s kick off today.